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Capital Investment Project Summary

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Presentation on theme: "Capital Investment Project Summary"— Presentation transcript:

1 Capital Investment Project Summary
January 1, 2007 TruSuccess Advisors, 27 Circle Dr. Rockaway, NJ 07866 (973) CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION The information contained within this presentation is confidential and proprietary, and intended for review purposes only. All other uses are expressly forbidden, unless it receives prior, written permission from the Officers of TruSuccess or its subsidiaries. Copyright © 2006 TruSuccess, Inc. All rights reserved.

2 Project Summary Project involved investing in a large industrial gases plant to supply two petroleum refineries with hydrogen Within two years hydrogen demand from both refineries were expected to grow significantly to about 75 mmscfd each in about 5 years Incremental demands driven by: Environmental Clean Air regulations Crude and hydroprocessing expansion plans at both refineries TruSuccess Advisory

3 Likely Project Risks Capital overrun Customer & Refinery Longevity
Capital costs of $100MM have been confirmed with vendor The only capital risk is a euro-based exposure since plant will be assembled in Europe Recommend that risk be appropriately hedged via the forward markets since the dollar has been falling vis-à-vis the euro in recent months Customer & Refinery Longevity Both customers were investment-grade rated One is solidly rated at AA+, while the other is borderline rated at BBB Risk of either refinery closing is extremely minimal given current capacity shortage in region & in U.S. The United States is the world’s largest energy producer, consumer and net importer During 2003, the United States consumed an estimated 19.9 million barrels per day (mmbd) of petroleum products total energy consumption is projected to increase a further 0.8% to 1.6% annually through 2020. Similarly, refinery capacity in 2003 stood at 16.8 mmbd, with capacity utilization ranging from 92-94%. Any new capacity expansion will be the result of modernizations to existing refineries TruSuccess Advisory

4 Summary Profitability & Sensitivities
12.0% Maximum expected return = 11.2% 1.8% 10.0% 0.2% Minimum expected return = 8.3% 0.8% 8.0% 2.1% 6.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 0.0% Base Fees only Baseload volume Extra Additional Achieve capacity Escalate natural Client takes (~75% capacity) 4.7mmscfd 10mmscfd steam sales gas prices by final 10mmscfd volume volume 1%/yr volume in 2006 Project Return in Real dollars is 8.3% (about 12% nominally) An additional 3% in real returns can be realized if clients utilize remaining plant volume TruSuccess Advisory

5 Project Returns & Natural Gas price sensitivity
12.00% Likely range of long-term natural gas prices over the 11.00% next 15 years is extremely high 10.00% 9.00% Current natural gas price at 4/5/04 = $5.82 Henry Hub 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% Unlikely range of natural gas Unlikely range of natural gas prices over next 15 years prices over next 15 years 5.00% 4.00% 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 Natural Gas prices Proposed pricing scenarios ensure a positive revenue impact as natural gas prices increase Each $1/mmbtu increase in natural gas prices increases RIRR by 0.6% Over the past 30 years natural gas has increased at twice the rate of inflation TruSuccess Advisory

6 Source: Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2004, with projections to 2025
Projected Natural Gas Prices, 2002 $/mmbtu Source: Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2004, with projections to 2025 TruSuccess Advisory


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