1. Trends in the Global Fresh Produce Industry: Focus on Citrus
DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics
University of California Davis
November 2005

2. World Area and Production of Fruits and Vegetables, Million Metric Tons and Hectares
Source:
FAO

3. Food Demand Trends
Global per capita availability of fruits and vegetables grew from 155 kg in 1990 to 212 in 2004.
Consumers in Latin American and Asia are registering the fastest growth in food demand in the world – in the face of slow growth mature food markets in the developed world.
Growing global importance of supermarket chains plays a key role in stimulating fresh produce trade – shelf space needs to be full year-round. This is a positive factor for citrus demand.

4. Convergence…Supermarket Share of Grocery Sales, by Selected Country%
France
USA
Brazil & Korea
China
Source: Tom Reardon

5. The 2004 World Fruit Pie, Share of Production
Source: World Apple Review 2005

6. World Production of Citrus and Total Fruit, 1,000 Metric Tons
79-81
89-91
99-01
02-04
02-04 v %
Total Citrus
59,321
77,073
103,620
106,274
+38%
Oranges
38,751
53,578
63,433
61,808
+15%
Other Citrus
20,570
23,495
40,187
44,466
+89%
Total Fruit
275,663
311,642
440,242
458,736
+47%
On this basis, Wal-Mart looks pretty strong relative to its grocery store peers.

7. This compares with 40% growth in population.
Citrus production growth has lagged population as demand has diversified for other fruit.
On the other hand, developing countries are increasing consumption of fresh produce, including citrus, as incomes improve.
Developing countries also have higher rates of population growth.
Trade liberalization through the WTO is opening markets and reducing tariffs.
On this basis, Wal-Mart looks pretty strong relative to its grocery store peers.

8. Citrus markets and trade will continue to diversify:
between 1990 and 2003 imports of oranges, tangerines and clementines into all countries grew by an average of 23%, v. 20% into developed countries and 39% into developing countries.
between 1990 and 2003 imports of grapefruit and pomelos into all countries grew by 9%, v. 6% into developed countries and 63% into developing countries.
The US and the EU dominate global horticultural trade.
On this basis, Wal-Mart looks pretty strong relative to its grocery store peers.
Source: World Apple Review 2005

9. U.S. Horticultural Imports and Exports by Key Product Category, $Billion
Source: FAS/USDA, as compiled by Roberta Cook.

10. EU Exports of Horticultural Products by Category
Billion
Source: Global Trade Atlas, includes: Vegetables, Fruits, Nuts, Essential Oils, Nursery Products, Cut Flowers, Wine, and Beer.

11. Total Consumption of Fresh Oranges in Selected Countries, in 1000 Metric Tons (excludes processing)
Source:
FAS PSD
Oct. 2005

12. Japan: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit in kg
Source: World Apple Review 2005

13. United Kingdom: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit, in kg
Source: World Apple Review 2005

14. United Kingdom: Per Capita Weekly Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables, by Age Group, 2002-03, grams
Source: World Apple Review 2005

15. USA: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Citrus in kilos, 1976-2004
Source: ERS/USDA

16. Per Capita Consumption of Oranges, Selected Countries, in kilos
Sources: FAS/USDA PSD, Oct and IDB demographic data, as compiled by Roberta Cook.

17. USA: Per Capita Consumption of Oranges, Fresh and Juice, kilos, 1976-2004
Source: ERS/USDA

18. Obesity Goes Global: Globesity!
WHO estimates that obesity grew from 200 million people in 1995 to over 300 million in 2000.
115 million of the obese live in developing countries.
Even in France, obese people are now 11% (vs. 8% in 2000) of the population and expected to reach 20% in 2020.
The number of obese people in Britain almost tripled between 1980 and 2001; overweight or obese pre-school children doubled in the 90s.

19. Concern over Globesity Affects Public Policy
Fresh produce is set to benefit.
Competition from non-healthy snack foods is finally being challenged by health messages and changes in availability, such as in schools.
Growing evidence on the health benefits of fresh citrus must be aggressively communicated and promoted, to all age groups.
Citrus can be made more convenient to consume, witness the launching of Sunkist’s Fun Fruit program.

20. TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004
Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
Wal-Mart U.S
Carrefour/Promodès France
Ahold Holland
Germany/Switz
Tesco U.K
U.S
Germany
Costco U.S
30 grocery retailers account for 29% of modern global grocery retail sales.

21. TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004
Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
Target U.S
Aldi Germany
Schwarz Germany
ITM France
U.S
AEON UK
Walgreen’s U.S
Auchan France
Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005

22. TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004
Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
Safeway U.S
Ito-Yokado Japan
France
Edeka Germany
CVS U.S
Tengelmann Germany
Casino France
Sainsbury U.K
Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005

23. TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004
Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin ($ billion) Sales ($ billion) Rank
Coles Myer Australia
Morrisons
Delhaize “Le Lion” Belgium
Woolworths Australia
Loblaw Canada
El Corte Ingles
Total Estimated Top ,054.42
Others ,610.33
Total Worldwide ,664.75
Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005

24. TOP GROCERY RETAILERS IN MEXICO, 2004
Retail Banner Sales Grocery Company ($ billion) Sales ($ billion)
Wal-Mart
Soriana
Gigante
Comercial Mexicana OXXO
Costco
Chedraui
HEB
Source: PlanetRetail as compiled by Roberta Cook.

25. TOP GROCERY RETAILERS IN MEXICO, 2004
Retail Banner Sales Grocery Company ($ billion) Sales ($ billion)
Carrefour
Calimax
Subtotal Top
Other
Total
Top 10 grocery retailers account for 25% of modern grocery retail sales in Mexico. Much of food sales move through traditional channels.
Source: PlanetRetail as compiled by Roberta Cook

26. Key Drivers global retail players global retail brands?
growing role of private labels
retailer–supplier contracts/partnerships, interest in large year-round suppliers
declining role of spot market
Suppliers all coming up to the same level