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From: Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy

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Presentation on theme: "From: Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy"— Presentation transcript:

1 From: Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy
Ann Intern Med. 1999;130(12): doi: / Figure Legend: The parallels between the processes of induction and deduction in medical inference (top) and statistical inference (bottom).Δ = treatment difference. Date of download: 11/14/2017 Copyright © American College of Physicians. All rights reserved.

2 From: Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy
Ann Intern Med. 1999;130(12): doi: / Figure Legend: Bayes theorem, in words. Date of download: 11/14/2017 Copyright © American College of Physicians. All rights reserved.

3 From: Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy
Ann Intern Med. 1999;130(12): doi: / Figure Legend: The bell-shaped curve represents the probability of every possible outcome under the null hypothesis.PPBoth α (the type I error rate) and the value are “tail areas” under this curve. The tail area for α is set before the experiment, and a result can fall anywhere within it. The value tail area is known only after a result is observed, and, by definition, the result will always lie on the border of that area. Date of download: 11/14/2017 Copyright © American College of Physicians. All rights reserved.

4 From: Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy
Ann Intern Med. 1999;130(12): doi: / Figure Legend: Possible outcomes of two hypothetical trials in six patients (Appendix). The only possible overlapping results are the observed data and the result in which treatment A was preferred in all patients. Date of download: 11/14/2017 Copyright © American College of Physicians. All rights reserved.


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