1. NS4053 Spring Term 2017 MENA Youth Marganilization
Oxford Analytica, Middle East: Socioeconomic Trajectories are Negative, January 3, 2017

2. Overview I
UNDP Report, Youth and Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality, November 2016
The Arab world’s large youth population (15-29-year-olds) faces an increasingly difficult transition to adulthood amid:
Widening inequalities
High levels of exclusion, and
Rising conflict.
Consequences include
Conflicts over income distribution, jobs, and public services are likely to increase
Pressure to migrate to the Gulf and the West will rise
Regional disparities in living standards will increase, with smaller and more diversified states doing best

3. Overview II
U.N. report notes today’s young Arabs have many advantages compared to previous generations they are:
Better informed and educated
More globally connected, and
Live longer.
Despite this, they:
Have more limited opportunities than their parents’ generation and
Are less satisfied with their lives

4. Marginalization I UNDP report shows
Arab living standards are failing to keep pace with the rest of the world
The average annual growth rate of living standards in Arab states fell by more than half in relative to growth in 2000
Pattern reflect the impact of the economic downturn, and
Post-2011 conflicts

5. Marginalization II
Arab youth face exclusion on multiple fronts compared to youth globally
Education
Arab states have made significant advances in access to schooling and university over recent decades but
Education quality is poor and not matched to skills required by labor markets
Arab states consistently score below the global average in international tests of mathematics and science

6. Marginalization III Unemployment
Region has the highest average youth unemployment in the world since the early 1990s
In 2014, it stood at 29.3%, more than twice the world average of %
Traditional employment provider, the public sector can no longer absorb this growing number of new labor market entrants
Means more young people face insecure, low paid work in the informal sector
As a result they experience and extended transition to economic independence and struggle to establish families and homes

7. Rates of Youth Unemployment

8. Marginalization IV Gender Inequality
Arab women face some of the highest levels of social and economic exclusion globally
While they have gained greater access to education in recent decades they still struggle to find jobs
More then two-thirds aged are estimated to be outside the labor force compared to 20% of men of the same age.
Young women also face heavy social restrictions, discrimination and domestic violence due to cultural and social norms – these are weakening however.

9. Marginalization V Politics
Young Arabs are far less engaged in formal politics than older generations and youth
The regional average for youth participation in voting is 20% below the average for middle-income countries
Particularly low rates in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria
Conversely protest rates are high at 18% of youth compared to 11% in middle income countries
Reflects the perception among Arab youth that formal politics is not a route for meaningful change

10. Marginalization VI Conflict
The Arab region (defined by UNDP as including Somalia and Sudan) is home to 5% of the world’s population yet in suffered
45% of global terrorist attacks
69% of battle related deaths and
Hosted 58% of refugees
The report forecasts that conflict will increase over the coming decades, with 75% of the Arab population living in countries at risk of conflict by 2050
Report’s estimate that 13 million children (40% of the region’s) are out of school has particularly negative implications for longer-term economic and reconstruction prospects

11. Marginalization VII New Development Model
Report argues that youth empowerment is the route to stabilizing the region and making significant gains toward economic and social development
Presents a new youth-centered development model
Involves wide-spread structural and institutional reforms and
Integrating youth development issues into the heart of policy across government.

12. Recommendations I The main recommendations include
Enhancing young people’s capabilities through improved education, technology, healthcare, housing and unemployment allowance
Creating more jobs by encouraging productive economic growth, work experience programs, and careers’ advice
These recommendations imply
Root-and-branch reform of the “rentier state” economic model,
Reform of the social contract as well as
The resolution of the region’s bitter conflicts.

13. Recommendations II The problem Many Arab Governments lack
Political will,
Institutional capacity and
Financial resources
To achieve these ambitious goals quickly if at all, especially during this period of subdues oil revenues, and heightened geopolitical rivalry

14. Diverging Prospects I
Because of these factors youth prospects likely to diverge within the region ever more sharply in coming decades
Conflict-affected areas (especially Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen) will experience long-term damage reducing living standards for this generation and those that follow
Egypt’s large youth population also face grim prospects – youth unemployment is estimated to be 40%

15. Diverging Prospects II
By contrast countries with
Higher educational attainment
Relative stability
Smaller populations and
Diversified private sectors
Are likely to make some progress. These include
UAE
Bahrain
Lebanon and
Jordan

16. Diverging Prospects III
Saudi Arabia has placed youth at the heart of its Vision 2030 program and could also make advances on youth inclusion, particularly if it brings women into the workforce
However, youth unemployment is likely to remain high for the next two decades, potentially entrenching high inequality levels, eroding the social contract and increasing instability

17. Assessment
The region’s youth population is set to grow for the next 20 years at least
UN estimates 60 million jobs will need to be created during next decade to absorb rising numbers of young people entering the labor market
Tackling unemployment and other youth grievances will require
Deep structural reforms
Investment in human capital and
Conflict resolution
However this is unlikely to occur at the speed and scale required in most Arab countries