1. Union of Concerned Scientists 40th Anniversary Symposium
Panel on Missile Defense and Space Security
John Steinbruner
University of Maryland
October 31, 2009

2. Basic Situation
Space utilization is in a process of gradual and lengthy transformation
From the original purpose of supporting military confrontation
To much broader social and economic functions
Commercial communication and navigation
Earth observation for environmental management.
Prevailing legal, financial and institutional arrangements are incompletely adapted to the ultimately necessary expansion of purpose.

3. Notable Problems
Inherent tension between the principle of equitable utilization and the impulse for competitive national advantage.
Global commons concept necessitated by the physics of orbital dynamics,
Has generally been interpreted to allow military support activities but not weaponization.

4. The distinction between legitimate military support and objectionable weaponization
Has not been completely specified in legal terms
OST does not explicitly prohibit conventional weapons or acts of interference.
Has been sharply contested in apparently authoritative US policy documents
Stated aspiration to dominate space for national military advantage
And deny similar effort by any other country.

5. US missile defense aspirations conflict with the global aspiration to prevent space weaponization.
Any test or deployment of a space based system would be a direct contradiction.
All strategic range ballistic missile interceptors in any basing mode confer ASAT capability.

6. Reasonable Expectations
Increasing importance of broad space support services will eventually induce more complete legal specification:
Prohibition of acts of interference as distinct from capacity for interference.
Defined limits on military support functions.
Equitable sharing of information of common interest.

7. Contrary impulse for dominance or decisive competitive advantage not feasible for any country.
Not legitimate in global judgment
Not achievable at realistic cost.

8. Immediate Imperative
Initiate formal negotiations to update the legal regime.
Requires a reversal of US policy
But one that better reflects fundamental US interest.

9. Practical Observation
US BMD program is more a political than a strategic project.
Space based component is not remotely realistic but the idea is politically entrenched.
Difficulty of disciplining that aspiration is arguably the primary impediment to development of the space regime.