1. The Patterns and Dynamics of Religious Switching between Childhood and Adulthood in the U.S. 2008: A Case Study of the Nones
Barry A. Kosmin
Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture
Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut

2. Religious Switching in the 20th Century
"In 1955 a Gallup poll showed that only 4% of the adult population--1 person in
25--no longer adhered to the faith of their childhood. Some 30 years later,
another Gallup poll showed that 1 person in 3 had switched from the faith in
which they had been raised. "
Wuthnow, R. The Restructuring of American Religion: Society and Faith Since World War II, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press (1988), p. 88.
"Between 25 and 32% of Americans currently are members of a religious group
other than the one in which they were raised. The main reasons... seem to be
the desire to worship with people of similar socioeconomic status, the desire to
have the same religious membership as one's spouse, and the abandonment of
established religion by young people. 27% of those who switched went to a
category of 'no religious membership at all."
Newport, F. "The Religious Switcher in the United States " in American Sociological Review, 44: (1979)], p.548

3. Switching DEFINITION AND MEASURES
Any change in reported religious self-identification or preference label between 2 points in time.
Examples are Southern Baptist to American Baptist; Evangelical Lutheran to Wisconsin Synod Lutheran.
Movement between religious traditions with differences in theology or ecclesiology.
Includes across Non-Catholic Christian denominational traditions
Movement between religions (usually) involving apostasy and conversion formalities
PROCESSES
Churning = total gross movement
Balance of switching between religious groups = net gains & losses
Directionality & patterns of inter-group switching
Socio-demographic characteristics of switchers

4. Data
Data are drawn from the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) based on random-digit dialed (RDD) telephone interviews with a nationally representative samples of 54,462 adults.
The analysis for this presentation is based on 2 sub-samples drawn from ARIS
1,015 representative U.S. adults.
1,106 Nones
Questions
What is your religion, if any?
What was your religious identification, if any, at age 12?

5. Table 1. Switching Measures for U. S
Table 1. Switching Measures for U.S. Adult Population (Weighted) ARIS Age 12/Current Religion
Stay
Switch
5 Groups
71%
29%
12 Traditions
62%
38%
All Religious groups
59%
41%
6 of the 12 Traditions are in the Other Christians group category

6. Table 2. Religious Switching Patterns of US Adult Population since Age 12 ARIS 2008
Catholics
Other Christians
Other Religions
Nones
DK/ Ref
Switched In
14%
19%
51%
70%
Switched Out
31%
17%
38%
41%
79%
Difference
-17% 2%
13%
29%
-28%
Switches in: as percentage of current population; Switches out: as percentage of original population
Table 2 shows high rate of religious switching
41% of Americans self-identify differently now to when they were age 12.
38% have moved between the religious traditions.
29% have moved across the 5 groups with Catholics showing net loss by switching (but they gain from immigration). Nones show biggest net gain.
Interestingly more Americans know what they are now than what they were at age 12 (DK/Refused column).

7. Logistic Regressions to Explain Gross Switching
Model 1. 
Socio-demographic/class variables fail to explain gross switching. (N=837  R square = .015)
No variable significant presumably because churning includes Other Christians moving within Christianity (musical chairs/pews). 
Model 2. 
Socio-demographics + Religion at Age 12 (N=786 R square = .028)
Only significant finding = Catholics less likely to switch. The sheer size of the group offsets the losses. 

8. Initial Conclusions
ARIS 2008 and Pew Religious Landscape Survey 2007 agree that the gross rate of religious switching among the contemporary American adult population - churning – between childhood and today is just over 40%.
Demography does not explain churning or differentiate religious switchers from stayers. Since demographics, class, geography, time period and childhood religion explain very little about gross switching we must assume that situational contingencies, spouse’s religious identification, social network dynamics and psychological variables we did not measure are at play.
Analysis suggests that there are specific patterns and dynamics operating in switching in and out at the level of particular religious groups.

9. Logistic Regressions to Explain Switching
Model 3.
Switching to None – Socio-demographic variables + Religion at age 12
N= 306  R square = .167
Significant variables:
Gender- Males twice as likely as females (.01 level)
Region- Residents of Midwest (0.01) and West (0.05) more than twice as likely to switch to None as  residents of South
Religion at age 12- Compared with Don’t Knows, Catholics 5 times more likely (0.01) 
Typology of the most likely New None = a Catholic male from the Midwest.

10. Table 3. Raised Nones v. New Nones%
New Nones
MALES
58.9
62.3
FEMALES
41.1
37.7
Total
100%

11. Table 4. Percentage of Raised Nones and New Nones by Age Cohort 2008%
Population
18-29
38.4
3,887,000
61.6
6,227,000
30-49
37.6
4,774,000
62.4
7,923,000
50-69
19.7
1,266,000
80.3
5,149,000
70+
42.7
535,000
57.3
719,000
Total
34.3
65.7

12. Table 5. Selected Ethnic Origin of Raised Nones and New Nones
British
19.7%
20.3%
Irish
26.8%
37.4%
Italian
7.2%
9.8%
Jewish
3.9%
3.8%

13. Table 6. Percentage Raised Nones and New Nones by Census Region
Northeast
31.0
69.0
Midwest
38.3
61.7
South
34.3
65.7
West
TOTAL

14. Table 7. Educational Attainment among Raised and New Nones
Raised Nones
New Nones
High school graduate or less
46.7
40.9
Some College
30.3
30.5
College graduate
22.9
28.6
TOTAL
100%

15. Table 8. Belief in God among Raised Nones and New Nones
There is no such thing
8.7
6.5
There is no way to know
15.7
20.8
I’m not sure
21.0
14.3
There is a higher power
21.1
26.4
There is a personal god
25.7
27.9
DK/Ref
7.7
4.1
Total
100%

16. Table 9. Belief in Horoscopes among Raised Nones and New Nones
Yes/Maybe
18.5
14.3 No
79.6
85.5
DK/Refused
1.9
0.3
Total
100%

17. Table 10. Belief in Human Evolution among Raised Nones and New Nones 2008
Probably/Definitively Yes
56.7
63.9
Probably/Definitively Not
31.4
28.7
DK/Refused
11.9
7.3
Total
100%

18. Differentiating Variables between Raised and New Nones
Gender
Age Cohort
Education
Ethnic origin
Belief & Skepticism
No significance = region, political preference