1. The EU Fruit & Vegetable Synthetic Regional Vulnerability Index (SRVI)
EuMed Agpol Project
Annual meeting
Montpellier, 17th - 19th, May, 2006
The EU Fruit & Vegetable Synthetic
Regional Vulnerability Index (SRVI)
Jean-Louis Rastoin, Nassima Ayadi, Jean-Claude Montigaud
Agro.Montpellier, Inra, UMR Moisa

2. Theoretical Background
Vulnerability depends on capabilities level (Sen, 1985)
Capabilities are constituted by actors resources & competencies (RBV, Wernerfelt, 1984) and macro-economic & institutional framework (North, 1990)
To estimate regional vulnerability, we have to characterize the “filière” (supply chain, marketing channels), and its embeddedness (economic & institutional environment)

3. Methodology Survey at regional level (EU nuts 2)
Construction of a multi-criteria Index for each region based on “supply to consumer chain” analysis with SSP (Scherer, 1973) and GVC (Gereffi, 1994) models
Identification of forecast scenarios
Benchmarking (ranking) of the Regions sample on a synthetic index basis

4. The Synthetic Regional Vulnerability Index (SRVI)
Linear function of 4 “scores”
IVR = 1/ (FF&V) x  + (PF&V) x  + (MCE) x  + (RWI) x 
, , , , weighting coefficients
The 4 scores (“strategic levels” of SCC)
FF&V : Fresh fruit & vegetable sector
PF&V : Processed Fruit & vegetable
MCE : Marketing channels enterprises
RWI : Regional Wealth Indicator
Weighting coefficient are estimated by expertise and simulations

5. Strategic level Economic indicator
The SRVI Components
Strategic level
Economic indicator
Fresh F&V score
F&V total production
Production increase
Average production by farm
Investment rate
Subsidy rate
Gross margin ratio
Labour productivity
Production cost
Specialization
Product geographic indication

6. Strategic level Economic indicator
The SRVI Components
Strategic level
Economic indicator
Processed F&V score
Enterprises total sales
5 years sales change
Average production by firm
Net margin ratio
Labour productivity
Structure of production cost
Raw material input
Interests and taxes
Specialization

7. Strategic level Economic indicator
The SRVI Components
Strategic level
Economic indicator
MCE score
(F&V wholesalers and Food wholesalers)
Enterprises total sales
-5 years sales change
-Number and size of firms
Gross and net margin ratio
Labour productivity
Return on investment
Financial autonomy

8. Strategic level Economic indicator
The SRVI Components
Strategic level
Economic indicator
RWI (Regional wealth)
Total population
Population density
-Demographic rate of increase
-Total GDP
-GDP/capita
R&D ratio

9. The RVI calculation principle
For each indicator i :
Value for region j / Average of all regions
Algebraic sum of i values = score value (FF&V, PF&V, MCE, RWI)

10. The sample

11. The 4 scenarios

12. Main results (scenario 4)

13. Discussion
Results are globally conform to empiric observations (i.e. F&V SCC is a global value chain driven by retailers)
SRVI reflects industry performances, but also economic environment situation
Limits of databases : RICA, Amadeus representativeness and errors
Strong heterogeneity of F&V sector between regions and products
Asymmetries between chain actors
Corporate governance : localization of firms headquarters (where is the decision-making ?)

14. Conclusion : Some proposals to link together WPs
Assumptions
- EU Import increase from SEMC (CAPRI & Delphi results) =>
- Market loss for EU med countries =>
- F&V production decrease (Yd) =>
- F&V producers revenue loss
Yd regional estimation (for each EU med country):
Yd for region j = (RVIj / Sum RVIj) x (National import increase or loss in national agricultural income)

15. Proposal to link up WPs: possible weighting coefficient for loss calculation by region

16. Proposal to link together WPs
Possibility to estimate impact by sub-sector:
Fresh Fruit (23 EU SEMC regions)
Fresh vegetable (24 regions)
Fresh F&V (34 regions)
Processed F&V (63 regions)
(Biggest EU SEMC production regions)