1. Sustainable development policies and measures
Concept and methods for a strategic approach for enhancing the climate regime post-2012
Harald Winkler
Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town
Presentation at the Development and Climate Workshop, September 2006, Paris

2. The concept of SD-PAMs
Sustainable development (SD) policies and measures (PAMs)
Any better offers on the acronym?
Backcast from desired future state of development, not GHG reduction goal or cap
define more sustainable paths to meet development objectives
Tap into the primary motivation for DCs – development
How to capture the potential of SD co-benefits under the Convention for developing countries?
Need a new strategic approach to capture the potential under the multi-lateral framework – SD-PAMs is one possible approach
Article 3.4
“Parties have a right to, and should promote, sustainable development. Policies and measures to protect the climate system against human-induced change should be appropriate to the specific condition of each Party and should be integrated with national development programmes, taking into account that economic development is essential for adopting measures to address climate change”.

3. More ‘sustainable’ development paths make mitigation easier
IPCC Emission Scenarios (grey) versus emissions path needed for stabilisation (red) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios
450
550 B1
IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios
A1T
650 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios
450
550
650 B2
IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios 6
750 A
A1T
A1FI B1 B2
KEY MESSAGE: a more sustainable development path has lower emissions, even without any explicit climate policy.
The corollary is also true – development objectives can be met in more or less emission-intensive ways.
SPECIFICS:
A1F1 has higher economic growth, fossil intensive energy supply, continued similar economic structures
B1 is scenario with greatest equity, significant technological change and change in economic structure, shift toward cleaner sources of energy and efficient use
Red lines show stabilisation for A1F1 at 450, 550, 650, 750 ppmv; for B1 450, 500 ppmv
Source: IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report, WG3, p. 151

4. The basis of SD-PAMs
Article 2, the oft-forgotten second sentence: "Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."
Principle in Article 3.4
“The Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable development.”
Article 2, 2nd sentence: this is SD in all three dimensions
Principle expresses this as a right – 3rd generation rights …

5. Strategic approach Build on existing commitments (FCCC Art 4.1, KP 10)
A commitment to implement SD policies
not based on climate target, but choosing a development path that results in lowered emissions
Large-scale policies and measures, not projects
Formalise this pledge
Could be a list of countries
Could be a register of pledged policies and programmes
Establish methodologies for quantifying benefits of SD-PAMs (both SD and CC)
Under Article 4.1(b), all Parties commit themselves to ‘formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases.’
Article 10 of the Protocol re-affirms existing Convention commitments and aims to ‘advance the implementation of these commitments in order to achieve sustainable development’.

6. Steps in applying SD PAMs
Country outlines future development objectives
Identify PAMs to achieve development objectives more sustainably
a. Existing policy not fully implemented; or
b. New policies and / or more stringent measures
Mobilise investment and implement SD-PAMs
Could include mutual pledges to mobilise domestic investment
Internationally, climate and non-climate funding
Record SD-PAMs in a registry (e.g. maintained by the secretariat)
Set up national monitoring system to track implementation of SD-PAMs
Review SD-PAMs in SD units, either as part of national communication or a specific review
Quantify the changes in GHG emissions from individual PAMs
Identify PAMs with synergies or conflicts between SD benefits and GHG limitations
Summarise the net impact of a basket of SD-PAMs on development and GHG emissions
The SD-PAMs approach starts with the development objectives and needs of developing countries. Countries begin by examining their development priorities and identify how these could be achieved more sustainably, either by tightening existing policy or implementing new measures. The next step is to identify synergies between sustainable development and climate change, i.e. those SD-PAMs that also result in reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To obtain a realistic picture of the impact of a basket of SD-PAMs, those policies and measures resulting in increases in GHG emissions also need to be identified.

7. Methodologies for quantifying SD-PAMs
In principle, methodologies needed to quantify
Firstly SD benefits
Secondly GHG co-benefits
Existing methodologies have been bottom-up
Case studies
National energy modeling
Exploring other methodologies
Analysis of efficiencies improvements
Analysis in global emission allocation models?

8. Method 1: Case study - rural electrification in India
Development challenge:
million people without electricity
Three supply scenarios:
Grid First
Diesel First
Renewables First
Three levels of rural electricity demand
Source: Dubash and Bradley, 2005

9. Method 1: Case study - rural electrification in India
Approaches are evaluated by India’s national criteria.
Grid First offers little hope of meeting electrification goals.
Diesel First raises significant oil import concerns.
Renewables First brings benefits but at significant capital cost – can international policy help?
CO2 emissions under the scenarios
Qualitative assessment of the scenarios
Source: Dubash and Bradley, 2005

10. Method 2: National energy modeling
Use national energy modeling in South Africa
Energy emissions four-fifths of total
Study on Energy policies for sustainable development in South Africa
Winkler, H (Ed) 2006,
Combined effect
Efficiency in industry, commerce and residential
Fuel-switching and cleaner residential fuels
Lower-carbon electricity generation
Biofuels for transport

11. Method 2: National energy modeling
Saves R 15.9 billion in total energy system costs over the period, relative to base case
Reduction in local air pollutants
Non-methane volatiles
t NMVOC
Oxides of nitrogen
t Nox
Sulphur dioxide
t SO2
Carbon monoxide
t CO

12. Avoided CO2 emissions from SA energy policies for SD
700
600
Base case
500
400
Emissions reduced by
adding all policies
Mt CO2
300
200
100
If combined, the emission reductions achieved by all the policies analysed here add up to 50 Mt CO2 by 2015 and 142 Mt CO2 for 2025, which amounts to 14% and 24% of the projected base case emissions respectively. One important conclusion is that significant emission reductions (‘avoided emissions’) compared to business-as-usual are possible. However this should be understood together with a second conclusion, which is that stabilising emissions levels (e.g. at 2010 levels) would require some additional effort from 2020 onwards.
Avoids emissions: 142 Mt CO2 for 2025 (24% < BAU)
Source: Winkler (ed) 2006

13. Method 3: Analysis of policies by sectoral data
Using quantitative data, based on available literature
Detailed activity data, in tons of product / output by economic sector
Value added, in monetary terms by sector
Energy use by fuel type by sector 
Calculation of energy and GHG intensity by sector
Focus on emissions from the energy sector
Mainly CO2
Enabling calculation of all GHG
Similar set of policies as in method 2
Source: Höhne & Moltmann et al., forthcoming for RIVM

14. Share in electricity production

15. Scenarios electricity
Condition
Convergence in thermal efficiency
Aver.
Max
Converg.
Coal
0.34
0.40
0.42
Oil
0.35
0.44
0.45
Gas
0.37
0.48
0.54
Convergence in CO2/kWh per fuel
Min
0.96
0.73
0.69
0.68
0.39
0.4
0.52
0.27
0.28
Convergence in CO2/kWh
0.05
Reduction on CO2 intensity
Reduce by 3% per year
Growth in electricity production from IMAGE implementation of SRES scenarios for regions applied to countries. Reduced by 0.5% for improvements in energy efficiency in appliances

16. Scenarios electricity

17. Reductions in the global context
Scenario
Condition
“Mild”
Annex I excl. USA
-15% below 1990 level in 2020
USA
+10% above 1990 level in 2020
Non-Annex I
Reference
“Strong”
-30% below 1990 level in 2020
+0% at 1990 level in 2020
Sectoral for electricity, iron & steel and cement
“SD-PAMs”
All countries

18. Reductions after 2020 towards 450 ppmv CO2
Maximum annual reduction rate
-2.2%
-4%
-6.5%
-10%
Global emission levels necessary to stay below 450 ppmv CO2 concentration assuming that all greenhouse gases are reduced in the same proportion and that the global trend cannot change be faster than 0.5 percentage points per year using the MAGICC model. For 550 ppmv the difference between the cases is less pronounced (maximum annual reduction rate of 0.6%, 0.9%, 0.9%, 1% for immediate reductions after 2020)

19. Method 4: Global emission allocation models
Models set up to allocate a given carbon budget across countries, e.g. FAIR, EVOC
Top-down appraoch to analysing climate implications of bottom-up SD-PAMs
Mainly to answer questions of effectiveness
If sufficient policies could be specified for a country, might be able to represent in this model
Needs further work
Including articulating national energy models with international allocation models
Studies exist, not all information public (yet)

20. Formalising SD-PAMs in the multi-lateral system
Regular reporting on implementation (Article 12.4)
Could be part of national communications …
… separate reporting perhaps preferable?
Primary reporting: SD units
Also quantify GHG co-benefits (as illustrated in methods)
Registry of SD-PAMs
Could be administered by Secretariat
Formal recognition of action taken
National capacity critical, e.g M&V of energy efficiency

21. How can SD-PAMs be supported internationally?
Step 1: Validate SD-PAMs approach
COP decision - “register” of countries
Allow countries to decide whether to register and how to report
Step 2: Create supportive processes
E.g. CGE develop methodologies
E.g. Secretariat compilation and synthesis reports
Step 3: Develop incentives for implementation
Expedited access to climate funding
Non-climate funding (IFIs, ECAs, FDI, domestic)
Potential to link to carbon markets – later
Otherwise much like policy CDM

22. SD-PAMs and post-2012
By itself, does not guarantee environmental outcome (still need quantified mitigation commitments) …
… but important in mobilising action
Turn climate from ‘threat’ to development into genuine opportunity to make development sustainable for DCs
‘Only’ requires a decision by the COP, not a whole new Protocol
Important as trust-building measure under the Convention
One possible ‘package’: SD-PAMs, implemented through technology, enabled by finance, in balance with adaptation