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Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale Watershed HealthLand-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy.

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Presentation on theme: "Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale Watershed HealthLand-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy."— Presentation transcript:

1 Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale Watershed HealthLand-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Firms Households Economic Structure and Change Individuals

2 Decisions at the watershed scale are characterized by: Multiple goals  Multiple alternatives to meet goals  Multiple criteria for alternatives  Multiple metrics, scale, and time dimensions of criteria  Multiple decision-makers with...  Diverse preferences All within a decision environment where the only thing that is certain is: CHANGE. How can we structure such a decision-making process?

3 At the watershed scale, what is the decision to make? GOAL Examples: Quantitative growth oriented goalsQuantitative growth oriented goals Qualitative development oriented goalsQualitative development oriented goals Specific management or action plansSpecific management or action plans

4 What are the decision alternatives that could help reach that goal? Examples: Business as usualBusiness as usual Directed growth policies; technical fixesDirected growth policies; technical fixes Steady stateSteady state GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3

5 How do we choose amongst alternatives? What criteria? Examples: Economic (C Ec ): Employment, income, tax baseEconomic (C Ec ): Employment, income, tax base Social (C Sc ): Income distribution, landscape characterSocial (C Sc ): Income distribution, landscape character Environmental (C Ev ): Impervious surface, IBIsEnvironmental (C Ev ): Impervious surface, IBIs GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3 C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev

6 How do we evaluate these criteria? Metrics: Quantitative, qualitative Degree of uncertainty Data availability Scale: Stream site, tax parcel, neighborhood, sub-catchment, township, catchment, county, state... Time: Stream flow, industry and household processes, land-use change, policy change, economic change, government change...

7 GOAL DM 1 DM 2 DM 3 A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 How do we arrive at a goal when multiple perspectives are involved? Examples: Equity weightsEquity weights Alliances and consensus buildingAlliances and consensus building Group process designGroup process design

8 How do we identify decision-makers’ preferences within and between each criterion?

9 Within each criterion: Maximize or minimizeMaximize or minimize Absolute or relative preferenceAbsolute or relative preference Difference 0 1 Score Absolute Difference 0 1 Score Relative Linear Non-linear

10 Within each criterion: Degree of indifference thresholdDegree of indifference threshold Difference 0 1 Score Indifference Threshold

11 Within each criterion: Degree of indifference thresholdDegree of indifference threshold Degree of preference thresholdDegree of preference threshold Difference 0 1 Score Preference Threshold

12 Within each criterion: Degree of indifference threshold, ANDDegree of indifference threshold, AND Degree of preference thresholdDegree of preference threshold 0 1 Score Indifference Threshold Preference Threshold

13 Between criteria: WeightsWeights GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3 C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev w 1 + w 2 + w 3 = 1

14 Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Performance of each alternative by multiple criteria 1 0 C1C1 C2C2 C3C3 C4C4 C5C5 C6C6 C7C7

15 Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Pairwise comparison of alternatives by multiple criteria Alt-1 Alt-2

16 Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Preference ordering of alternatives for each individual, and the group as a whole A3 A4 A2 A1 A5 Partial A3 A4 A2 A1 A5 Complete

17 Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Simultaneous comparison of criteria and alternatives (individual GAIA Plane) C Sc C Ev C Ec Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 pi

18 Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Simultaneous comparison of decision-makers and alternatives (group GAIA Plane) DM-2 DM-1 DM-3 Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 pi

19 Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Sensitivity analysis – walking weights and stability intervals C Sc C Ev C Ec Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 pi

20 Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Shared understanding Coalition and/or consensus building Concrete problem definition Visualization of points and strength of conflict Ample opportunities for revision AND Ranking of decision alternatives

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