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RMA April, 2017 Austin, Texas Presented by: David Jarvis

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Presentation on theme: "RMA April, 2017 Austin, Texas Presented by: David Jarvis"— Presentation transcript:

1 RMA April, 2017 Austin, Texas Presented by: David Jarvis
Trusted Analysis for Executive Decisions RMA April, 2017 Austin, Texas Presented by: David Jarvis 5909 West Loop South Suite 590| Bellaire, Texas, 77401 (713) John Burns, CEO

2 Our Mission: To help executives make informed housing industry investment decisions.
Diverse Research subscribers Quick Stats Companies Subscribing to Our Research 190 Annual Consulting Assignments 600+ Linkedin 500,000+ Followers Newsletter Subscribers 30,000+ Regularly Quoted In:

3 Trusted Analysis for Executive Decisions
What We Do… Trusted Analysis for Executive Decisions

4 JBREC Resources across Multiple Offices
Our consulting team has a broad range of housing expertise that spans the country. From consumer research to feasibility studies to portfolio valuation, feel free to reach out to our experts. Danielle Leach Todd Tomalak Midwest (847) (920) Dean Wehrli (916) Northern California Steve Dutra (949) Northeast Dan Fulton (703) Jody Kahn (603) Southern California - Orange County Mollie Carmichael (949) Chris Porter (949) Nicole Murray (949) Rick Palacios, Jr. (949) John Burns (949) Southeast David Kalosis (770) Don Walker (858) Pete Reeb (858) Ken Perlman (858) Southern California - San Diego Florida Lesley Deutch (561) Southwest Steve Burch (248) Texas Lisa Marquis Jackson (214) David Jarvis (713)

5 Short-Term Outlook: Goldilocks Market - not too Hot, not too Cold
JBREC MARKET HOTNESS INDEX FOR 50 LARGEST MARKETS Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

6 JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

7 Current Sales/Pricing Grades and Market Fundamentals
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

8 JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

9 JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

10 JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

11 Burns Economic Performance Index™: Average Economic Growth Today, 51% Chance of Recession in 2 Years, 72% Chance in 4 Years 1-Year Outlook 72% 51% \\JB-IRV-FS01\Data\USHAF\US_Data_Files\Manual Pulls\Workup\National-Index Burns-National-Economic-Index.xlsx Current 51% chance of recession within 2 years 72% chance of recession within 4 years Currently average; will trend slightly lower over the next year The Burns Economic Performance Index™ is designed to rank current economic conditions against previous economic cycles on a scale of 0-100, 0 being the lowest performing, and 100 being the highest performing economic conditions.  The index includes 34 indicators grouped into 5 weighted categories: Employment, Housing, Economics, Stock Market, and Confidence, each with history extending back to A forward looking component of the index with data back to 1953 provides a lead on recession events as well as an early indication of coming growth cycles, which is used in our 1 year outlook, and is also used to generate our risk of recession statistics. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Apr-17, Pub: Apr-17)

12 Economic Expansions Typically Last 3–9 Years: US Is in the 6th Year of Economic Recovery; 2017 Will Mark 8th Year 10.0 8.8 7.8 6.3 6.0 5.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 1991 1961 1983 2009 2002 1975 1950 1954 1971 1958 Starting Year of Economic Recovery Historical Length of US Economic Recovery (Length of expansion cycle in years) Historical Average = 5.5 Years Current Recovery Is in 6 th Year of Expansion Sources: NBER, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Nov-15)

13 Dallas New Home Sales Forecast
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

14 Ft. Worth New Home Sales Forecast
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

15 Austin New Home Sales Forecast
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

16 San Antonio New Home Sales Forecast
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

17 Houston New Home Sales Forecast
Market Hotness: JBREC’s view of sales and pricing trends today, with “Warm” being modest price appreciation and normal new home sales rates per community. JBREC Regional Analysis and Forecast, 12/16

18 Questions? David Jarvis, SVP John Burns Real Estate Consulting
(713) John Burns, CEO John Burns Real Estate Consulting Depth and Breadth of Experience CONSULTING Strategic Direction & Planning Home Builder Operations Assessment Demand Analysis Consumer Research & Focus Groups Economic Analysis & Forecasting Litigation Support & Expert Witness Financial Modeling Project & Product Positioning RESEARCH Access to our Research & Consulting Executives Metro Analysis & Forecast Regional Analysis & Forecast US Housing Analysis a& Forecast Proprietary Monthly Builder Survey Home Builder Analysis & Forecast Apartment Analysis & Forecast Single-Family Rental Analysis & Forecast Building Product Industry Analysis & Forecast Demographic Insight Exclusive Client Events Public Builder Quarterly Call Summaries Presentations & Webinars Topical White Papers

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