1. Stefan Schleicher Christian Hofer 4 March 2015
ClimTrans2050
Implementing the deepened structural modeling approach: The sGAIN energy model
Stefan Schleicher
Christian Hofer
4 March 2015

2. We demonstrate the implementation of the envisaged deepened structural modeling approach with a full-scale and operational model for Austria
The parameters were chosen to achieve a 80 percent reduction of energetic CO2 emissions by 2050

3. How to develop a modeling framework for the transition to low-energy and low-carbon structures?

4. Some Design Principles
The focus of analysis is on energy related functionalities, not on energy flows.
Parameters should be easily understood as to their impacts.
Increasing energy productivity or changing the energy mix can be evaluated as to investment and operating effects.
This is in sharp contrast, e.g., to elasticities of substitution.
Instead of pretending predictable outcomes we offer insights how certain targets as emission reductions could be achieved by matching structural changes.
Additional modeling layers deal with the interaction of other sectors of the economy and market and non-market driven incentives and institutional setups.

5. Step 1 Functionalities and useful energy productivity

6. Functionalities, Useful Energy Productivity

7. Step 2 Energy mix of useful energy

8. Energy mix of Useful Energy

9. Functionalities and Useful Energy
Low temperature heat
High temperature heat
Stationary engines
Mobile engines
Lighting and electronics
Functionality / Useful Energy Productivity =
= Useful Final Energy
Final Energy Consumption + Non-energetic energy consumption =
= Net Final Energy Consumption

10. Step 3 Losses from distribution and own use

11. Distribution Losses and Gross Final Energy
Net Final Energy Consumption + Distribution Losses =
= Gross Final Energy

12. Step 5 Distributing gross final energy into transformed and untransformed final energy

13. Untransformed and transformed Gross Final Energy
Gross Final Energy (GFE) =
Transformed GFE + Untransformed GFE

14. Step 6 Losses from energy transformation into electricity and heat and other transformations

15. Transformation of Electricity

16. Transformation of Heat

17. Transformation Losses

18. Gross Energy Supply

19. The overall picture of a low-energy and low-carbon energy transformation

20. Functionalities, Useful Energy, and CO2 Emissions

21. CO2 Emissions

22. Some Conclusions
In view of radical emissions reductions, it is easer to increase energy efficiency than to expand massively renewables.
For a 80% reduction target the key issues are low-temperature functionalities of buildings and a major re-design of the functionalities related to mobility.
The remaining emissions reductions will hinge upon the options for the high-temperature functionalities.