1. Mexican Americans and Politics: Concluding Observations
Lecture 17
March 14, 2006

2. Lopez and Pantoja
Thesis: A study of multiple-racial/ethnic populations (Blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans) that assesses racial attitudes toward policies that are opportunity enhancing or outcome directed (different forms of Affirmative Action)
Method: Multivariate analysis of the Multi-city Survey of Urban Inequality

3. Themes for the Course
Historical foundations of Mexican American politics
Emergence of Latino pan-ethnicity and consequences for Mexican Americans
Civic and political engagement
Public policy
Underlying questions in each section
How do Mexican Americans organize to overcome barriers
How does immigration change the politics of Mexican American communities

4. What We Know About the Future
Mexican American/Latino populations will grow
Intra-Latino diversity will increase
The Mexican American presence will expand in new parts of the United States
The first (immigrant) generation will make up a declining share of the Mexican American population
In the short term (and probably the long term), Mexican Americans will need to rely on coalitional politics to achieve their political and policy goals

5. Population Composition, 2000-2100 (current immigration levels)

6. Mexican American Share of Latino Population 1973-2002

7. Latin American Legal Immigration, 2002
Mexican Share 58 percent

8. Estimate—Composition All Latin American Immigration, 2002
Mexican Share 64 percent

9. Destination States, Mexican Legal Immigrants 2002 (2500+)
California (97,293)
Texas (43,524)
Illinois (11,821)
Arizona (7,932)
Colorado (4,107)
Florida (3,596)
New Mexico (3,575)
Nevada (3,308)
Georgia (2,531)
Washington (2,518)

10. Immigrant/Native Shares – Mexican American Population

11. Latino Age Composition, 2000
Immigrants / U.S. Born

12. What We Can Reasonably Expect
Current trends will not continue
Long-term demographic trends unreliable
Immigration at high rates has continued longer than in previous American history
A backlash likely to emerge
Backlashes can mobilize (while slowing immigration)
Remember that Mexican Americans, and particularly Mexican American citizen voters, are not supporters of immigration at current levels

13. Identity in Flux Even if current trends continue
Race/ethnic identities change
Mexican American identity faces four challenges
Rise of second and third+ generations
Pan-ethnicity
Decline in the salience of ethnic identity
Emergence of institutionally sanctioned and recognized multi-racial/multi-ethnic identities

14. Generational Composition of Hispanic Population: 1960-203028 28 28 9 17 9

15. Population Growth Ensures that Influence Will Increase
But,
It will not grow as quickly as population – resources for mobilization low
Competition for Mexican American political support often weakened by structural factors outside community’s control
Community leadership is weak and not growing
Consequence
Risk of alienation
Confusing distance with exclusion

16. Villaraigosa Election Offers a Possible New Model
Los Angeles shares political characteristics with other major urban areas
Latino plurality, with Latino electorate making up a smaller share of voters than does Latino population of total population
Rich pool of Latino leaders at the council/school board level
Tensions – arguably fears – of Latino empowerment in African American communities
White leaders who are skilled at dividing minority communities
Divisions within Latino elites – concerns about raising prominence of others

17. Yet, Villaraigosa Was Able to Win (After a Loss in 2001)
How?
Latino unity and division among other electorates
“Division” misses key Villaraigosa victories
White and African American elites
Young African Americans
Liberal whites
Weak opponent
Nevertheless, Villaraigosa has energized Los Angeles political elites and centralizing power in the office of the mayor

18. So
The future is bright
But, the future may be further away than many believe
If that future is too far off, many will move away from a Mexican American identity
Immigration continually reinforces identity
Immigration “reforms,” if implemented, will likely reduce immigration, particularly Mexican immigration
2nd and beyond generations will make up increasing share of the Mexican American population
Will Mexico / Mexican American identity be of importance, particularly if immigration declines?