1. Anglo-German rivalry

2. Economic Rivalry THINK: why might this provoke war?
In late 19th century Europe imperialism and economic rivalry went hand-in-hand. Colonies were a means of expanding territory, acquiring scarce raw materials and minerals such as oil, tin, copper, lead, zinc and phosphates, and obtaining desirable goods such as diamonds, gold, silver, coffee, cocoa, rubber, palm oil and cotton. They also offered new markets for European exports and new opportunities for financial investment.
Britain had begun industrialising in the second half of the 18th century and Belgium followed suit from the 1820s onwards. The second industrial revolution began after 1870 in the United States and in the newly-unified Germany and by the end of the century Japan and most countries in north and west Europe were rapidly industrialising.
Before 1880 Britain was the dominant force in the global economy, mainly because of her exports of manufactured metal goods (engineering, precision tools, steam engines, etc), cotton and woollen textiles and coal. But over the next two decades Britain was overtaken by Germany and the United States in terms of the production of iron and steel and chemical and electrical products.
THINK: why might this provoke war?
US advertising poster, 1886
The adoption of mass production techniques created a new mass consumer market. Steamships and railways opened up new markets in other countries for the newly industrialised nations.
(Public Domain United States)

3. The emergence of a global economy
By the 1880s and ‘90s a global economy was emerging. The increasing mechanisation of farming, the use of mass production techniques and assembly lines and the conversion of merchant shipping to steamships capable of transporting goods around the world at lower costs than ever before meant that industrialised nations were opening up markets for their goods all round the world. Since most of them were not self-sufficient in essential raw materials they were also increasingly dependent on other less-developed nations for their supplies.
By the end of the 19th century Britain was still the largest exporting country in the world, but her rivals, especially the United States, Germany and France, were catching up. Imperialism was driven as much by the need for new markets and sources of raw materials as it was by the desire for the prestige of being an Imperial Power.
In some instances the Great Powers colonised parts of Africa and Asia just in order to deny their rivals access to those markets.
THINK: what is the link to imperialism?
The Suez Canal was opened on 17 November It allowed ships travelling between Asia and Europe to avoid sailing around Africa, saving a distance of 7000km.
(Public Domain)

4. Economic dependencies
Chart created from data in J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, NY p.220
As with imperialism, there is a sense that growing economic rivalry between five major global powers produced a sense of heightened international rivalry. As the chart here shows, the ‘league table’ position of each of the Great Powers based on wealth was gradually changing over the four decades before the war.
But, at the same time, the Great Powers were becoming increasingly dependent on trade with each other. By 1914 Britain was Germany’s best customer. German capital helped to finance iron ore mining in France. Levels of trade between France and Germany (enemies as recently as 1871) was growing significantly. By the start of the war 45% of Russia’s trade was with Germany and 20% with Britain. France’s main trading partners were Britain, the USA, Germany and Russia. Around 20% of US trade was with Britain and 14% with Germany.
Ultimately this economic interdependence did not stop these nations from going to war in 1914 but four of these Great Powers did fight on the same side. It would be misleading to argue that their economic rivalry proved stronger than their economic interdependence. It is by no means clear that economic rivalry between Germany and the other Great Powers directly led to war in 1914.
THINK: ‘on the one hand and on the other hand’ about this…

5. An end to Britain’s Splendid Isolation
In the 1890s Britain pursued an isolationist foreign policy, unwilling to join in any military alliance with another Great Power. At the time the ‘isolationists’ in the government argued that this policy reflected Britain’s geographical position and the need, as a major imperial power, to maintain the capacity for independent action around the world.
Britain’s period of “splendid isolation” came to an end in when she agreed an alliance with Japan. After defeating China in Japan was a rising power in the East but it was looking for a European ally. Since France, Germany and Russia had united to force Japan into giving up some of the territory it had gained in the Sino-Japanese War, she turned to Britain. Since Britain was not in alliance with any of the other European powers there seemed little risk that Japan might be dragged into a European war.
Britain also saw advantages in the alliance. Japan was buying warships from British naval yards. She was also seen as a useful ally in the Far East against the other European powers.
As this cartoon in the British magazine Punch (1905) shows, the Anglo-Japanese alliance was popular in Britain.
(Public Domain – US)
THINK: what evidence have we already got that Britain abandoned ‘Splendid Isolation’.

6. Weltpolitik
"Weltpolitik" was the imperialist foreign policy adopted by Germany during the reign of Emperor Wilhelm II from onwards. The aim was to transform Germany into a global power through aggressive diplomacy, the acquisition of overseas colonies, and the development of a large navy.
The origins of the policy can be traced to a Reichstag debate on 6 December 1897 during which German Foreign Secretary Bernhard von Bülow stated, "in one word: We wish to throw no one into the shade, but we demand our own place in the sun."
Historian Nancy Mitchell believes that the creation of Weltpolitik was a change in German foreign policy. Up until Wilhelm's dismissal of Bismarck in 1890, Germany had concentrated its efforts on stopping the possibility of a two- front war in Europe. Prior to Weltpolitik, there was a greater focus on using its army and subtle diplomacy to maintain its status.
However, Germany HAD already started thinking about colonies from 1884 when the German Government began to protect the property of private German colonisers in Africa. The German historian Hans-Ulrich Wehler believes that German colonial policy in the 1880s allowed the government to distract public attention from domestic problems.
Germany still worried about a two front war (think Schlieffen Plan), but foreign policy became more ambitious. Kaiser Wilhelm II and pressure groups like the Pan-German League believed colonies would bring Germany prestige. German leaders shared the same views about superiority over other races as other Europeans.
Weltpolitik was failing as Germany lost the naval race and provoked hostile alliances. It was totally lost by defeat in the First World War.
THINK: What was the purpose of Weltpolitik?

7. The Naval Race
A part of the European arms race at the time was the naval arms race between Britain, the pre-eminent naval power since 1805, and Germany. In Berlin it was believed that Germany could only sustain its newly-found ‘place in the sun’ if it had a sizeable navy that could protect its colonies and its overseas trade.
1898: Germany began to construct a larger navy, endangering Britain’s clearwater policy – that Britain’s navy should be double that of the second largest in the world.
In 1902 Britain responded with its own naval construction programme. By 1906 this focused particularly on the development of a new kind of battleship, the Dreadnought. These were so superior that the clearwater policy could be abandoned.
However, Germany also built Dreadnoughts from In both countries, the public – encouraged by the press, popular authors and naval pressure groups – demanded more battleships. ‘We want 8 and we won’t wait!’ was the British public call in The British government struggled to fund the project and had to raise taxes. However, by 1910 Germany gave up the competition and focused on building up its army.
By 1914 the British had built 38 new Dreadnoughts and Battlecruisers (comparable in size and firepower but faster) and 11 other warships while Germany had built 24 battleships equivalent to those of the British and 5 other warships.
THINK: how this rivalry and public hatred in each country made war more likely.
HMS Dreadnought, the first of a new class of British battleships built in (Public Domain United States, US Naval Center)
SMS Nassau, the first new German battleship, launched in 1908 to match the naval capacity of the British Dreadnoughts. (National Archives and Records Administration, ARC Identifier )

8. The wider Arms Race
This table draws on a number of different sources. The figures for August 1914 come from John Simkin: educational.com/FWWarmies1914.htm. The figures for and 1910 are best estimates based on statistics provided in A.J.P. Taylor, Struggle for Mastery in Europe from 1848 to (Oxford 1971) ; David G. Herrmann, The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War (Princeton 1996); and J.S. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, (New York 2001).
The late 19th Century saw a rapid growth in the standing armies of all of the Great Powers. Between 1900 and 1914 the combined military expenditure of the five main European Powers increased by 50%. In Germany defence expenditure increased during that time by 73% with a large part of that going to the construction of warships. At the same time other European countries, particularly in the Balkans, were also increasing their military expenditure.
As this table shows, the main expansion in the Powers’ standing armies and reserves took place between 1910 and As one country increased its armed forces so all the others responded by increasing theirs. But the rapid increase in expenditure also reflected the desire of the armed forces for new and improved weapons and equipment, including battleships, submarines, machine guns and longer-range artillery. Each Great Power feared that they would be left behind in the race to modernise their armies and navies.
THINK: why is Britain’s position unsurprising?

9. A vicious circle of European rearmament.
Each Great Power feared that it would quickly become a second-rate power if it did not take part in the arms race. There was a widely-held belief that a large, well- equipped army or navy would deter other powers from threatening war. To some extent the policy seemed to work. The threat of war with France and Britain pushed Germany into backing down over Morocco. Russian mobilisation in was sufficient to persuade Austria-Hungary not to intervene militarily against Serbia during the Balkan Wars.
But, at the same time, this created an atmosphere of brinkmanship amongst the Great Powers, with an emphasis on bluff and counter-bluff, thereby creating a heightened sense of international tension and uncertainty between the powers.
Think: what is the ‘on the one hand… on the other hand… point?
1909 cartoon in the American satirical magazine Puck. It shows the United States, Germany, Britain, France and Japan engaged in a naval arms race in what the cartoonist calls a "no limit" game.
(Public Domain United States)

10. Militarism.
“It shoots further than he dreams”.
Drawn by American cartoonist John F. Knott, a 19th century immigrant who was originally from the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The cartoon, depicting the Kaiser firing a cannon around the world, was labelled “Militarism”. It was first published and syndicated across the United States in March 1918.
Historically the term ‘militarism’ has been applied to those countries where the interests of the military were considered to be identical to those of the nation as a whole and the dividing line between the military and civil authorities was blurred.
For example, after Germany was unified in 1870 the Prussian army formed the core of the new German army. The Kaiser was the supreme commander, supported by a military council, and the elected Parliament had little say in military matters. In the decade before 1914 the German army was often described as a “state within the state’.
In Tsarist Russia military officers worked alongside civilian bureaucrats in some of the ministries; the governors of most of the provinces and major cities were also the commanders of the local military districts and large parts of eastern Russia were under direct military control. The High Command was also very influential within the Tsar’s Council. However, civilian ministers were often able to overrule the Ministry of War on major decisions affecting the army and navy and Russia’s international relations.
Even in more democratic countries, such as Britain, there was a rise in militarism, with the males of the royal family often in military uniform, the rise of cadet forces in schools and the foundation of the scout movement to train boys in military style methods.
War was regarded as an acceptable way to sort international problems and a way to unite the people of countries experiencing the stresses of rapid change. Offensive military plans were made as the best way to defend a nation state’s interests.

12. Pressing for preventive wars
In Austria-Hungary Conrad von Hötzendorf, the Chief of General Staff had created a ‘war party’ within the General Staff and War Ministry after which regularly pressed for preventive wars against Serbia, Russia, Italy, Montenegro and Romania. But his efforts were repeatedly blocked by the Emperor and, ironically, by Archduke Franz Ferdinand who was assassinated in Sarajevo in 1914.
Public Domain
In all the Great Powers before the war there were disputes between the military and the civilian ministries. The Finance ministries came into conflict with the military command about the size of defence budgets. The Foreign Ministries argued for diplomatic negotiations rather than military action.
Diplomats attached to embassies spent a lot of time trying to identify who were the “hawks and doves” in the various ministries of each Great Power.
From 1911 onwards the hawks appeared to be getting stronger but the divisions between the two factions, even within ministries, often made it difficult to predict how each Great Power government would respond to any international issue or crisis.
THINK: how important is this culture to creating the conditions for war?

13. Nationalism.
The American and French Revolutions spread the ideas of popular sovereignty and national self determination. These events encouraged nationalist aspirations in the German and Italian states. After long Italy was unified in 1861 and Germany in 1871.
Strong nationalist movements also emerged amongst the peoples in the Balkans (for example, the Serbs) who were either subject to Austro-Hungarian or Ottoman rule; amongst Poles under Russian control and amongst the Irish under British rule. Nationalist ideologies were also gaining support within the Great Powers as military and economic competition grew between them. The overall effect was a more de-stabilised Europe.
Think: how can nationalism and patriotism create a climate in which war can happen?
The Boiling Point. A cartoon that was published in the British magazine Punch, 2 October The Great Powers are trying to keep the lid on a bubbling cauldron of nationalist tensions in the Balkans.
(Public Domain UK)