1. Toward a convergent validity of the Risk For Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) among male forensic patients
Thierry. H. Pham+* & Claire Ducro+**
+Center of Research in Social Defense (CRDS), Tournai, Be
*University of Mons, Be
**University Charles-de-Gaulle (EA 1059), Lille, Fr

2. Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (Hart, Kropp & Laws., 2003)
Sex violence history
- Chronicity
- Diversity
- Ecaladation
- Physical coercion
- Psychological coercion
Psychological adjustment
- Extreme minimization
- Attitudes supporting sexual violence
- Problems with self awareness
- Problems with stress and coping
- Problems resulting from child abuse
Mental disorder
- Sexual violence
- Psychopathic personality
- Major mental illness
- Problems with substance abuse
- Violent or suicidal ideation
Social adjustment
- Problems with intimate relationship
- Problems with non intimate relationship
- Problem with non employment
- Non sexual criminality
Manageability
- Problems with planning
- Problems with treatment
- Problems with supervision

3. RSVP works among French speaking population
Ducro, C. (2009). Psychopathie et évaluation du risque auprès d’une population carcérale francophone. Université de Tours-UMONS. Co-direction avec Christian Reveillère.
Ducro, C. Pham. H.T.., & Reveillere, C. (2010). Précisions conceptuelles et Validation discriminante de deux instruments d’évaluation du risque de récidive auprès d’agresseurs sexuels issus du système judiciaire Français. Journal de médecine légale, Droit Médical, Victimologie, Dommage Corporel, 53(6),
Ducro, C. Pham, H.T. (2014). Risque de récidive des auteurs d’agressions sexuelles. La Lettre du psychiatre.

4. Method

5. Implementation among forensic patients in a security hospital

6. Characteristics Includes 350 patients.
40% forensic patients have committed Sex offences
Weak turn over in the hospital: 60 releases per year
Length of stay: 8 years
Patients are evaluated on IQ, Axis I-II, Static and SPJ. PCL-R when cluster B diagnosis.
Mean IQ (WAIS/R)=72

7. Method 71 Male adults forensic patients: Social Defense Law.
Psychopathy Checklist revised (Hare, 2003).
Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 2006)
Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (Hart, Kropp & Laws, 2003)
Evaluations are mainly conducted by trained psychologists

8. AGE, LENGTH OF STAY & IQ N = 71 Mean SD Min-Max Age 47,38 10.90 21-77
Years of length of stay
10,93
7,18
0,5-36
Median
10,14
Total WAIS IQ
72,97
18,25
45-120

9. Axis I & 2 disorders (N=71)
Axis 1 disorders : Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview for DSM-IV major mental disorders (MINI)
Axis 2 disorders : Structured clinical interview for DSM-IV personality disorders (SCID-II)

10. PCL-R scores Mean SD N = 71 Total score 17,76 7,02
Interpersonal factor
7,43
3,67
Lifestyle/antisocial factor
8,97
4,24
Facet 1
2,57
2,14
Facet 2
4,84
2,15
Facet 3
4,70
2,31
Facet 4
4,16
2,56

11. SORAG scores Mean SD N = 71 Total score 10,83 10,36 Risk category 5.00
1,92

12. Risk category and probability of recidivism

13. RSVP Total score (p<.001)

14. RSVP Factor scores (p<.01)

15. RSVP Correlations
Recent
Future
Past
.62
.72
.82

16. RSVP, SORAG, PCL-R total scores
Correlations between
RSVP, SORAG, PCL-R total scores

17. Total RSVP .40 SORAG SORAG RISK .22 FCT 1/4 .10 FCT 2/4 .23 FCT 3/4
N = 71
Total RSVP
SORAG
.40
SORAG RISK
FCT 1/4
.22
FCT 2/4
.10
FCT 3/4
.23
FCT 4/4
.24
TOTAL PCLR
.29

18. RSVP risk factors and PCL-R scores

19. Psychological adjustment
FCT 1/4
FCT 2/4
FCT 3/4
FCT 4/4
Total PCL-R
RSVP Past
Sex violence history
.28**
.11
.12
.25*
Psychological adjustment
.21*
-.04
.09
.03
.07
Mental disorder
.30**
.22*
.29**
.47**
.48**
Social adjustment
.00
-.02
.36**
.24*
Manageability
.17
.19

20. RSVP Recent Sex violence history Psychological adjustment
FCT 1/4
FCT 2/4
FCT 3/4
FCT 4/4
Total PCL-R
RSVP
Recent
Sex violence history
.09
-.03
.00
-.01
.03
Psychological adjustment
.01
.07
-.06
.04
Mental disorder
.23*
.17
.15
.20
.29**
Social adjustment
-,04
-.07
-.04
Manageability
.12
.11
.06

21. RSVP future Sex violence history Psychological adjustment
FCT 1/4
FCT 2/4
FCT 3/4
FCT 4/4
Total PCL-R
RSVP future
Sex violence history
.21*
.02
.10
.32**
.19
Psychological adjustment
.07
.08
-.02
Mental disorder
.03
.09
.30**
.17
Social adjustment
-.05
.12
Manageability
.13
.06
.18

22. RSVP risk factors and SORAG scores

23. Psychological adjustment
SORAG
RSVP past
Total score
Risk category
Sex violence history
.35**
Psychological adjustment
.25**
.28**
Mental disorder
.19*
.21**
Social adjustment
.29**
Manageability
.26**

24. N = 71 Recent Sex violence history Psychological adjustment
SORAG
Recent
Total score
Risk category
Sex violence history
.22**
.20**
Psychological adjustment
.18*
.23**
Mental disorder
.13
.12
Social adjustment
.15*
.15
Manageability
.19*
.16*

25. Psychological adjustment
SORAG
RSVP future
Total score
Risk category
Sex violence history
.43**
.44**
Psychological adjustment
.18*
.23**
Mental disorder
.12
Social adjustment
.19*
,20**
Manageability
.20**

26. Discussion V trend for past, recent and future RSVP scores.
Recent scores are less related to SORAG and psychopathy scores.
Institutional forensic context vs ambulatory.
Recent scores would be problematic as predictor in the future- mosts clinicians rely on?

27. Discussion
PCL-R interpersonal and antisocial facets (but not Affect facet) are related to RSVP and SORAG.
But correlations are from small to medium size effect.
One RSVP evaluation only: periodic evaluations are necessary (each year ?).