1. Principles of economics Central banking and Monetary policy
Tomislav Herceg, PhD

2. Central Bank The most important macroeconomic policy maker
Banks of all the banks, monopolist in the money issue
Croatian National Bank (Hrvatska narodna banka) was founded in 1990.
Other central banks:
EU: ECB (European Central Bank)
USA: FED (Federal Reserve District)

3. Central bank properties
One of 4 pillars of the state, autonomous towards central government
Council of governors set by the parliament, not by the government
Its activities form national monetary policy
Governed by the Council (for HNB):
Executive board – governor and 4 vice governors.
External members – 8 councilors

4. Monetary policy
Macroeconomic policy created by the central bank using supply of money management
3 forms:
Expansive (M grows faster than GDP)
Restrictive (M grows slower than GDP)
Neutral (M grows at the same pace as GDP)

5. Policy objectives of the CB
Economic growth (gy) in line with the economy’s potential to expand
High employment (low u)
Low inflation (Π)
Moderate interest rates (i)

6. CB operations
Open-market operations: buying and selling government securities (bonds and bills)
Discount-rate policy (setting discount rate at which banks can borrow money)
Reserve requirement policy (setting legal requirement on deposits in banks)
Forex operations (buying and selling foreign exchange)
=> These operations alter supply of money M, in other words, these are tools of monetary policy

7. Open market operations
By buying and selling government bonds and bills supply of money changes: when CB sells bonds, M falls, when CB buys bonds, M rises.
Open market operations are conducted in the REPO auctions.
The most used monetary instrument

8. Discount-Rate policy
CB announces discount rate at which commercial banks can borrow money from CB.
Rarely used in Croatia, banks rather borrow one from another due to tight controls of banks that use CB loans.
Currently at 7%

9. Reserve requirements
By changing reserve rate r monetary multiplier changes: m = 1/r.
Monetary aggregates in Croatia:
M1: cash and deposits on current accounts
M1a: M1 + state deposits
M4: all liquid assets
(Mill. HRK)
Sept. 2014
Reserve money
62.746,1
Money M1
63.824,1
Money M1a
65.231,6
Broadest money M4 ,6

10. Open economy monetary policy
Domestic currency is affected by foreign holding of domestic currency. If too much money enters economy central bank has sterilize it by contracting supply of money M.
Exchange rate mechanism is crucial in that process:
Fixed exchange rate: country pegs against other currency at fixed exchange rate and has to adjust its economy so as to keep that rate.
Floating exchange rate: exchange rate freely changes
Operated floated exchange rate (snake in the tunnel): exchange rate floats between certain endpoints

11. HRK/€
Croatian kuna peggs against Euro in an operated floating exchange regime (mostly between 7.2 HRK and 7.6 HRK per EUR):

12. Monetary transmission mechanism
MTM is the route by which changes of money supply M affect output Y, employment E, prices P and inflation Π.
MTM with restrictive monetary policy:
Sale of government securities (or increase in the reserve requirement, or sale of foreign currency)
Money supply is reduced
Interest rates go up
Investment falls
Reduction of aggregate demand, output and employment and inflation
𝒓↑→𝑴↓→𝒊↑→𝑰,𝑪,𝑰𝑴↓→𝑨𝑫↓,𝒀↓,𝝅↓,𝒖↑

13. Money market
Demand for money is deducted from (a) need to conduct transaction and (b) desire to save
Supply of money is created by CB operations in the commercial bank system
The intercept of L and M determine interest rate i M
M = supply of money
L = demand for money

14. Money market shifts Restrictive monetary policy effect
-money supply contracts
-i rises, Y falls
Input price rise which causes inflation:
-L rises
-i rises i M L M’ i M L’ L

15. Monetary transmission mechanism graph (expansive monetary policy)
𝒓↓→𝑴↑→𝒊↓→𝑰,𝑪,𝑰𝑴↑→𝑨𝑫↑,𝒀↑,𝝅↑,𝒖↓ i i M M’
Id = investment demand
When Y approaches potential output monetary expansion leads only to inflation L
I(i) M I
Potential output TE I P
AD’
AD’ AS AD AD
45°
45° Y I Y

16. Effects of monetary expansion in the long run
Milton Friedman and his monetaristic school of economic thought believe that in the long run monetary expansion leads only to higher level of prices and output goes back to its previous level
Why? Because AS tends to be vertical in the long run and because inflation caused by ME causes a shift of money demand L causing i to rise, thus reducing I and AD and everything goes back. i M L’ L

17. Phillips curve
Phillips curve shows relation between inflation and unimployment.
In the short run lower unimployment can be „bought” by higher inflation (negatively sloped short run Phillips curve).
Higher inflation leads to rise in interest rates which causes I and thus AD to fall which lifts Phillips curve upwards
=>In the long run Phillips curve is equal to the NAIRU – Non Accelerated Inflation Rate of Unemployment π
NAIRU = long run Phillips curve
short run Phillips curves u

18. Okun’s law
Okun’s law is empirical rule observed in the USA. It says that 1% increase in the unemployment above its natural level (NAIRU) causes a gap between current and potential GDP to increase by 2%.
Natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment at potential level of output.
Cyclical unemployment is the difference between current and natural u.

19. Okun’s law in USA and EU USA: 𝑢 𝑡 − 𝑢 𝑡−1 =−0,4 𝑔 𝑦𝑡 −3%

20. Exercise 1 Liabilities of Croatian National Bank were:
Find M1 and and share of cash in M1

21. solution M1 = cash + current account deposits
Share of cash in M1: Cash/M1

22. Exercise 2:
CNB buys 50 Mill. HRK of national bonds. M1 was 4000 Mill. HRK, cash 1400 Mill. HRK, and required reserves (OR) were 800 Mill. HRK. Calculate:
a) current account deposits
b) required reserve rate
c) money supply mupltiplier
d) new deposits
e) M1 after multiplication proces

23. Solution M1 = 4000, Cash = 1400, OR = 800 a) Current account deposits:
D = M1 – Cash = 4000 – 1400 = 2600 Bill. HRK
b) Required reserve rate
r = OR/D * 100 = 800/2600 * 100 = 30,77%
c) Money supply multiplier
m = 1/r = = 1/0,3077 = 3,25

24. d) new deposits
ND = m * deposit increase
deposits increase = 50 Mill. HRK
ND = 3,25×50 = 162,5 Mill. HRK
e) New M1
M1’ = M1 + ND= ,5 = 4162,5 Mill. HRK