1. Intelligent pricing plans for de-icing companies
Helen Fox* and Benjamin Evans
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
*contact author:
Background
Observations from the OpenRoad network (Figure 1) are being used to describe the long-term trends in the climatology of the UK to assist de-icing companies with their pricing plan development when bidding and contracting-out for work. Utilising time-series data from the OpenRoad network a bespoke insight to road conditions will provide robust datasets on road surface climatologies for the UK compared to traditional weather station sites which do not necessarily reflect road surface/car park conditions. Observations from the OpenRoad network, including road surface temperatures, road surface conditions (e.g. frost, ice, snow), volume of traffic and surface water thickness will be used to provide information on annual and interannual climate variability of road surface conditions across the UK at postcode level.
Figure 1: Site locations of OpenRoad monitoring network.
Phase 1
The initial phase of development is multifaceted and will take several months to complete. The aim of Phase 1 is to:
• Obtain feedback from customers in terms of how will this information be incorporated into pricing plans? What format should it be delivered/accessible in?
• Develop the capability to produce UK climatologies utilising OpenRoad data
• Develop initial UK maps at medium resolution (monthly and seasonal averages and anomaly maps for different thresholds and conditions)
Figure 2: Correlation between National Climate Information Centre (NCIC) ‘days of ground frost’ and OpenRoad ‘days of Road Surface Temperature below 0°C’ across the UK during Winter (a), and by latitude (b), altitude (c) and road type (d).
Proposed data availability:
Based on customer feedback, we have identified the following thresholds as being of interest and importance to de-icing companies for forming their pricing plans:
Days of Road Surface Temperature (RST) below the following thresholds (°C):
2.0
1.0
0.0
-5.0 (rock salt starts to become ineffective)
-8.0 (rock salt is ineffective)
Days of snow
Both the average number of days below a temperature threshold and average number of days of snow cover will be available on a monthly and seasonal basis (Oct-April). a b c d
Figure 3: Winter Average Days of Ground Frost,
Note: Red circles highlight Penzance and Aviemore - two contrasting areas of the UK in terms of meteorology and climatology that one de-icing company has to manage and price for gritting services.
Methods
Due to spatial variations in the availability of OpenRoad data sites, in particular across Wales and Northern Island (Figure 1), it is proposed to use the relationship between National Climate Information Centre (NCIC) and OpenRoad data, for example, days of ground frost (NCIC) and days of RST below zero (OpenRoad) (Figure 2a). Once the relationship is established (correlation) this ratio can be applied to the NCIC days of ground frost 5 x 5km grid** (Figure 3) to establish the equivalent days of RST below zero for the whole of the UK.
** uses multiple regression to incorporate terrain shape, coastal and urban effects with inverse-distance weight interpolation.
Source: National Climate Information Centre,
Phase 2
Phase 2 will follow shortly after the customer criteria and underlying capabilities to perform the analysis are finalised in Phase 1. Phase 2 will aim to create a searchable database via an online portal which will be available to customers on a subscription basis. It will allow information to be retrieved at a variety of geographical scales, down to postcode level, and to select climatological thresholds and conditions such as temperature and snow extent.
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