1. Dengue and Yellow fever in Brazil
Nicolas Degallier, IRD
An historical fact
A seasonal fact
A biological fact
A sociocultural fact

2. A pilot project: where is the climate?
Mosquito: development
survival
gonotrophic cycle
Basic reproduction
number (R0)
Vectorial capacity
Other factors:
trophic preferences
human behavior
interrupted feeding
virus genetics
mosquito genetics
vertical transmission
Virus: extrinsic cycle
Infection rate

3. Epidemiology in space and time
Walter M. Ramalho, CENEPI - Ministry of Health
Who? – describe the patient: sex, age, scholarship, ocupação, socioeconomical features
Where? – describe the place: city, address, urban equipamento, altitude, geographical coordinates.
When? – describe time and weather: date, weather data
How? – describe the disease: symptomatology, laboratory data, diagnostic, immunological status

4. A spatio-temporal analysis of Dengue and Yellow fever
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
DENGUE
Many cases
Seasonality
Urban
YELLOW FEVER
Few cases
Seasonality
Rural transmission
Endemic
Epizootic
Epidemic risk

5. Epidemiology and Climate
Erik Neves, UnB
Users and Models
Inputs
Dengue & YF cases
Mosquito data
Mosquito control data
Meteorological data
Populational data
Vegetational data
CLARIS participants
Stakeholders
Web community?

6. Climate and Epidemiology
CLARIS participants
Stakeholders
Web community?
Risk maps
Scenario outputs …?

7. A model of climate driven epidemics
Charly Favier, CNRS
Second solution: mechanistic model
Model of the mechanisms sustaining the whole process: mosquito development and habit, virus transmission
Parameters deriving from the mechanisms, evaluated from present situation
Projection of future epidemiological information using climatic predictions
First solution: empirical model
Fit between present climatic conditions and epidemiological informations
Parameters chosen by the modeller
Projection of future epidemiological information using climatic predictions
Black box model
Climate
Temperature
Humidity
Rainfall
Epidemiological information
Vectorial capacity R0
Epidemic risk
Epidemic curve
Model
Man-made environment

8. Mosquito immature stages
Dengue risk model
Man-made environment
Human dengue status
Mosquito immature stages
Reproduction
Virus transmission
Emergence
Mosquito adult stage R0
Epidemic curves
Climate
Vectorial capacity