1. Training and Assessment Priorities:
Applying a risk management methodology to quantify importance
Mr. Duncan Tippins

2. The Problem:
The advances in the science and technology facing meteorologists are substantial, and growing.
Increasing spatial and temporal in satellite observations.
Increasing resolution in NWP (Convection allowing)
Increasing diversity and complexity in observations (dual polar radars)
Increased understanding of weather impacts for customers
Similar problems faced by observational staff as they transition to new roles.

3. Where do you start?
Classic (and sound) approaches to prioritise training include:
Stakeholder engagement.
Training needs analysis.
Organisational priorities (funded projects).
Financial deadlines.

4. And sometimes you still get your priorities wrong

5. Is there another (better) way?
Let's look at the risk management toolkit..
Risk Management Process:
Risk Identification
Risk assessment
Controls & Treatments
Residual risk assessment
Monitoring
Training is mainly a risk treatment

6. Classic Risk Assessment
Combination of likelihood and consequence gives risk category
Consequence
Negligible
Low
Medium
High
Extreme
Likelihood
Almost Certain
4.Significant
3.Major
2.High
1.Severe
Likely
5.Moderate
Moderate
6.Low
Unlikely
7.Negligible
Rare
Gives a subjective risk categorisation

7. WH&S Risk Assessment
Combination of likelihood, consequence and exposure
LIKELIHOOD
Score
CONSEQUENCE:
EXPOSURE
Almost Certain
Expected to occur 60
Extreme
Fatality or fatalities attributed to Bureau actions or omission 40
Continuously
At all times except for scheduled breaks or many times daily
1.4
Likely
Will probably occur in most circumstances 29
High
Extensive injuries that are irreversible or requiring extensive surgery 10
Frequently
10 times/hour or more than 75% of roster period or more than once daily
1.3
Moderate
Might occur at some time 9
Medium
Serious injury requiring medical treatment and ongoing treatment or lost time. 7
Occasionally
6-9 times/hour/50% – 75% of roster period or once a week to once a month
1.2
Unlikely
May occur only in exceptional circumstances 3
Low
Minor injury (reversible health damage) that may require medical attention and limited ongoing treatment.
Infrequently
3-5 times/hour or 25% - 50% of roster period or once a month to once a year
1.1
Rare
Could happen but probably never will 1
Negligible
Nil or negligible injuries that may require only local first aid.
Rarely
< 2 times/hour/<25% of roster period or more than 1 year to 5 years.
1.0

8. (dis)Benefits of WH&S Risk Assessment
Give numerical risk score
Allows more direct comparison of risk BUT
Still reliant on subjective assessment
Needs translation to training context

9. Risk Management Example – Workplace Safety
HAZARD S IDENTIFI ED
RISK
Existing Risk Control Measures
Risk Assessment (Score)
Risk
Score
LxCx E
Ris k
Le vel
Additional Control Measures required
Residual Risk (Score)
LxCxE
Lev el
Responsibl e
Person
Target
Compl etion
Date
Additio nal control s Implem ented
Yes/No L C E
Driving (esp. long distance and remote)
Long distances travelled to get to work sites.
Vehicle incident/ Road Traffic Accident
Engineering:
Fleet management / vehicle selection (5 star ANCAP ratings)
Administrative:
Safe Driving Procedure
Fatigue Management Procedure
Driving and mobile phone use
Call in procedures (PLBs, Sat Phones)
Pre-trip checks
Trip planning
Driver and manager education (MUARC), Defensive, 4WD M H O
108
MAJ
Review of vehicle selection (O&I funded)
Review of vehicle loading (O&I funded)
Review of GPS tracking systems (O&I initiative)
75.6
SIG
O&I
WHS&E Management
Committee
TBD

10. Risk Management – Training application
Modification to likelihood, consequence, exposure terminology.
Need to develop an understanding of difference between likelihood and exposure.
LIKELIHOOD
Score
CONSEQUENCE:
EXPOSURE
Almost Certain
Expected to occur 60
Extreme
Fatalities and/or extensive property damage where avoidance/preparedness was limited by Bureau service or system failure 40
Continuously
At least once a day (eg Max T forecast)
1.4
Likely
Will probably occur in most circumstances 29
High
Significant injuries and/or property damage where avoidance/preparedness was limited by Bureau service or system failure 10
Frequently
Roughly once a week (eg
1.3
Moderate
Might occur at some time 9
Medium
Serious reputational damage to Bureau or government through service or system failure. 7
Occasionally
Once a week to once a month (eg AWS outage)
1.2
Unlikely
May occur only in exceptional circumstances 3
Low
Service or system doesn’t meet all the expectations of community.
Infrequently
Once a month to once a year (eg Tropical cyclone)
1.1
Rare
Could happen but probably never will 1
Negligible
Nil or negligible consequence.
Rarely
More than 1 year to 5 years (eg major bushfire/ flood).
1.0

11. Training Risk Assessment - Examples
HAZARDS IDENTIFIED
RISK
Existing Risk Control Measures
Risk Assessment (Score)
Risk
Score
LxCxE
Level
Additional Control Measures required
Residual Risk (Score) L C E
Large Hail
Large hail not identified within meteorological observations
STS competency assessments for all forecasters issuing STS warnings 9 10
1.1 99
MAJ
Additional mandatory training in application of dual polarized products 3 33
SIG
Radar Outage
Radar not available during significant weather event.
Basic Radar and radar update training. 7 69
Additional mandatory training in radar fault detection and first in maintenance 23
MOD

12. From here Refine risk score for training context
Collect feedback on likelihood, consequence and exposure ratings.
Trial assessment methodology in 2018 training funding allocation cycle.

13. Thank you…
Presenter’s name
Presenter’s phone number