1. SLED Electricity Modelling results – Serbia
Slobodan Markovic
Electricity Coordinating Center Ltd.
V. Stepe 412, Belgrade 33, Serbia
Copyright 2016 EKC © This material may not be copied or distributed in all or in part without prior written permission of the copyright owner

2. Content – Serbia Scenario description Wholesale price impacts
Generation mix, CO2 impacts
Impacts on system costs:
Investment costs,
RES support costs
Network impacts
Contingencies
NTC valuations
Network loss impacts

3. EEMM model functionality (developed by REKK-Hungary)
Comments:
The map shows the geographical coverage of the model. Its results cover:
Competitive market equilibrium prices by countries
Electricity flows and congestions on cross-border capacities
36 countries are handled in the model.
Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, Moldova, Russia and Belarus are considered as exogenous markets
In these markets the net export position are equal with the fact in 2013 (assumed a baseload flow)
The model is calculating the marginal cost of around 5000 power plant blocks and sets up the merit order country by country.
Taking into consideration the merit order and exports/import, the model calculates equilibrium prices.
Power flow is ensured by 85 interconnectors between countries. 3

4. Scenario definition - summary

5. Gross electricity consumption
Sources: Energy Strategy and NREAP
and on the national expert input from TSO
Main drivers:
Energy efficiency improvements

6. RES capacity deployment (MW)
Source: Latest renewable plans of Serbia

7. Results

8. Modelling result – baseload price, €/MWh in real term

9. Modelling result – peakload price, €/MWh in real term

10. Wholesale price evolution
Both baseload and peakload electricity wholesale prices have a significant drop between , followed by a slight increase in the later period
The main factors influencing the wholesale price developments in Serbia are the followings:
Generation expansion in the fossil based generation in the region is high. Over 4000 MW capacity (mainly lignite and coal) is built in the countries: AL; BA; BG; GR; HR; HU; ME; MK; RS; RO according to the national plans
RES capacities above MW are also contributing to the price drop till 2020
Higher interconnectedness in the region also allows trade of electricity (higher NTC)
These new capacity expansion is illustrated in the following slide for the region

11. New PPs in the wider region*
New RES-E generation capacity, MW
New coal-based power generation, MW
Region includes the following countries: AL; BA; BG; GR; HR;HU; ME; MK; RS; RO;

12. Electricity mix

13. Generation mix and CO2 emissions
The assumed lower level capacity increase in GAS (only a smaller CCGT is built) in the ambitious scenario (AMB) shows that Serbia could cope with its increasing demand by higher hydro share.
Export is reduced due to the development, so the country is rather focusing on teh domestic market.
CO2 emissions are reduced significantly, it reaches close to 60% of the emissions of the Reference scneario in the year 2030.

14. Total investment cost of new PPs, m€, 2015-2030
Source of investment cost: Serbian Energy Strategy and Fraunhofer (2013)
The AMB scenario shows a much lower investment cost of the scenario due to the acoided investment costs in the coal based generation
Hydro investment cost increases.
The electricity system is based on more hydro resources, that can raise SoS concerns in the country

15. Calculation of the RES-E support budget
Support budget = (LCOEt-P)*Generated electricity
LCOEt: Levelized cost of electricity generation of technology t ~ average cost of electricity production
P: Modelled baseload electricity price (except PV, where peak load electricity prices are taken into account)
LCOE figures are based on literature data (Ecofys, 2014)
55 €/MWh for hydro
90 €/MWh for wind
110 €/MWh for biomass
105 €/MWh for PV
80 €/MWh for geothermal
Baseload and peakload prices are the results of the modelling
RES fee = RES support budget / electricity consumption

16. Yearly RES-E support need, m€

17. Yearly RES-E support need, €/MWh

18. RES-E support
Present FIT support for new hydro capacities is set between €/MWh for capacities up to 15 GWh production, PV is at 150, Wind is at 96, while biomass is at 120 €/MWh
LCOE values show that this level of support will be sufficient to cover all type of RES in the future as well, so there is no pressure to further increase support.
The peak of the support is in 2020, than it shows a reducing trend, due to lower support needed for new capacities.
RES support budget and support levels do not show steep differences amongst the scenarios as in other countries in the region.

19. Network modelling results - contingencies
Network contingencies appear in Serbia and Albania, so Serbia has to take care of its domestic network and its interconnections with the neighbours.
This contingencies appear in all scenarios, but the AMB scenario also shows additional contingencies

20. NTC change with neighbours
2025 summer
Higher RES penetration generally increases NTC in the CPP scenario
The AMB scenario reduces slightly the NTC values compared to CPP, but still higher than REF
2025 winter

21. Transmission losses
In Serbia transmission losses show changing pattern. The CPP scenario reduces losses compared to REF, while the AMB increases compared to CPP

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Thanks a lot for your attention!