1. Risk Analysis of Hurricane Storm Surge in a Changing Climate
Hurricanes, with their strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, cause much damage and loss of life worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing hurricane activity due to climate change. We develop an integrated framework to assess hurricane hazard risk in a changing environment; in this talk, we focus on hurricane storm surge risk. We first couple a General Circulation Model (GCM)-driven statistical/deterministic hurricane model with hydrodynamic model ADCIRC to simulate large numbers of synthetic storm surge events and project future surge climatology. We then propose an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess coastal flood risk at regional/city scales, considering integrated dynamic effects of projected surge climatology change, sea-level rise, and economic/population growth. Temporally-varying risk measures such as the return period of various damage levels and the mean and variance of annual damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as present value of future losses are derived to support probabilistic benefit-cost analysis for risk mitigation strategies. The application of the risk analysis framework to hurricane wind, rainfall, and eventually the joint multi-hazards is under development.
Tuesday, September 27, :00-12:00 noon 216 DeBartolo Hall
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering
Princeton University Princeton, N.J.
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Ning Lin is an Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Princeton University. She integrates science, engineering, and policy to study hurricane hazards, how they change with the climate, and how to better mitigate their impact on the society. She has published in high-impact journals including Science, Nature Climate Change, and PNAS. Lin received her Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Princeton University in She also received a certificate in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy in 2010 from Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Before rejoining Princeton as an assistant professor in 2012, she conducted research in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at MIT as a NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow.