1. Prof. Dr. V. Zebergs, Prof. Dr. N Zeltins
INSTITUTE OF POWER ENGINEERING CENERG Centre of Excellence Integration Centre for Central Europe for Research in Energy Supply from Fossil Fuels and Renewable Sources   Development of Latvian energy balance
Prof. Dr. V. Zebergs, Prof. Dr. N Zeltins
Institute of Physical Energetics
Latvian Academy of Sciences
Riga – Warsaw, 2004.

2. Introduction
Latvia has possibilities to have all kinds of energy sources practically in unlimited amount
Latvia has lots of good see harbour and other transport system for import energy sources
Gas supply Latvia has only from one side – from Russian gas pipeline system
Latvia is only one of 3 Baltic countries witch covered only partly his electricity consumption in present time and import up to 50% of consumption
There fore for developing of Latvian energy balance great importance has chose of electricity production technology and competition between gas, coal and nuclear energy

3. Prognoses of the Possible Technologies
of Base Capacity Electric Power Plants in Latvia
Electricity production technology at primary energy sources
Periods
After 2030
Natural gas ++ + --
Coal
Nuclear energy -
Evaluation of technological possibilities: ++ very high; +high; -low; --very low

4. Electricity production
Prognoses of average GDP grows for Latvia is 5% per year
Prognoses of average grows of electricity consumption in Latvia is 2% per year
In this circumstances prognoses of electricity demand in Latvia:
Unit
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Electricity consumption
TWh
10.2
5.9
7.2
8.8
10.7
Peak demand MW
1685
1226
1440
1760
2140

5. Electricity production in Latvia depending on technology of power plants
Unit
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Generation total
TWh
6.7
4.1
6.69
8.82
10.95
Coal -
0,2
2.1
4,2
Oil
1.0
0.1
Gas
0.9
1.2
4.0
4.2
Nuclear
Hydro
4.6
2.8
2.44
2.46
2.48
Other
0.2
0.05
0.06
0.07
Imports (+)
+3.9
+2.1
+0.51
Exports (-)
-0.4
-0.3
-0.02
-0.25
Consumption
10.2
5.9
7.2
8.8
10.7

6. Developing of Latvian primary energy balance
Total grows of consumption of primary energy sources in Latvia in the future mainly connected with electricity production
Structural change of primary energy sources consumption in Latvia in the future mainly are connected with:
grows of coal consumption for big capacity power plants
grows of consumption of wood for heat supply and electricity production in small capacity CHP and boiler houses
grows of production other REN’s and bio fuel

7. Prognoses of the Latvian energy balance (Mtoe)
Primary Energy Supply
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Indigenous Production
Hydro
Wood end other REN
Total production
0.387
0.375
0.762
0.24
1.01
1.25
0.243
1.1
1.343
0.245
1.2
1.445
0.247
1.3
1,547
Imports (+)
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Other (electricity)
Total imports
0.61
4.49
2.45
0.34
7.89
0.066
1.20
1.09
0.18
2.72
0.17
1.40
1.63
0.04
3.24
0.60
1.60
1.69 -
3.89
1.13
1.80
1.70
4.63
Exports (-)
Other
Total exports
0.031
0.2
0.231
0.202
0.22
TPES [PJ]
TPES [Mtoe]
362
8.65
156
3.74
183
4.383
215
5.133
249
5.957

8. Trend of developing of Latvian primary energy balance and its stricture

9. Ecological consequences of developing of Latvian primary energy balance
Main ecological consequences of developing Latvian primary energy balance are connected with analyse of greenhouse gases CO2 emission and SO2 and NOx emission
Greenhouse gases CO2 on the level 2010 is limited by Kyoto protocol
Emission of SO2 and NOx is limited by EU (Göteborg) protocol
Limiting emission after year 2010 – 2015 is unknown

10. SO2 and NOx emission from energy consumption in Latvia

11. CO2 emission from energy consumption in Latvia