1. fresh expressions of Church
Church Army’s Research Unit th November 2016
fresh expressions of Church
Canon Dr George Lings
Director - Church Army’s Research Unit
Part One
The Day of Small Things
An analysis of fresh expression of Church in 21 dioceses of the Church of England
@ChurchArmy #CARUconf

2. Dioceses covered Coverage rate 98.7%
Dioceses 1-11 with records up to the end of 2012
Dioceses with records up to the end of 2014
Data grouped in 7 year periods:
Then 2013 – 2014
2788
leads

3. What we know now… Known knowns Lots of fxC stories Need for stats too
Known unknowns
How many fxC? Where? Who comes? Etc. etc.
Unknown knowns
Ah, this is that!
Unknown unknowns
? - e.g. the lay-lay leader
Thanks Donald Rumsfeld

4. Uses of the data
The picture from 21 dioceses – gives the nearest thing to national coverage of fxC
Comparing the 2 sets of diocesan data, what is representative and what varies
Larger sample sizes gives confidence about what is characteristic of the more common types of fxC
We can explore what is typical across dioceses and what is particular to some
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5. 1. Some missional features
1.1 The diocesan backdrop:
All 21 dioceses were in degrees of numerical decline, measured by AWA 2006 – year prior to collection. The range was % to -1.1%, an average of -8.4%.
The populations served had increased, on average by > 8%
The percentage of the population attending was small, varying from a rural diocese [3.1%] to an urban one [1.1% ]
Thank goodness for some good news
from the fresh expressions of Church
See section 5.1.2
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6. 1.2 The number of fxC is 1109 Diocese name No. of fxC Liverpool 78
Canterbury 72
Leicester 52
Derby 46
Chelmsford 50
Norwich 63
Ripon & Leeds 39
Blackburn 64
Bristol 33
Portsmouth 21
Gloucester 23
Totals
541
Diocese name
No. of fxC
Exeter 69
Ely 52
Southwark 47
Guildford 77
Carlisle
London 86
Birmingham 28
Sheffield 56
York 57
Manchester 49
Totals
568
See section 5.1.3

7. 1.3 An upward trend
See section 4.4
Estimates from the months in that year after collection
Was 2012 the peak? The data of says not – see section 5.4

8. 1.4 How many attend fxC? – good question
Roughly 50,600 - some data is leaders’ rough estimate
What contribution does this make to diocesan AWA?
Strand 3b report put out 10% - compared with 2011 AWA
But after then national counting has taken note of frequency
We concluded we should do the same, which means
Dioceses 1-11 figure is not 9.3% but 5.4%
Dioceses figure is not 10.2% but 6.4%
The (adjusted) range across dioceses is 10.2% - 2.0%
Nor does this figure account for ‘blending’
See sections 5.1.3, and 5.2

9. 1.5a The background of those attending fxC
#dioc figs should be set aside: too crude scoring /may not include team
#dioc figs are improved - includes team and more accurate scoring system
But these are still are leaders’ best guesses
See section 4.6

10. 1.5b The church plant effect in round 2
Diocese CP
Xtns
De-ch’d
Non-ch’d
<> CP
Exeter 2
64.3%
5.6%
30.1% 67
31.0%
24.8%
44.0%
Ely 8
61.5%
21.3%
17.2% 44
34.4%
20.8%
44.8%
Southwark 13
56.7%
27.0%
16.4% 34
32.3%
29.8%
38.0%
Guildford 9
39.6%
41.3%
19.1% 68
42.1%
24.3%
33.5%
Carlisle 1
40.0%
30.0% 46
31.8%
18.6%
49.6%
London 35
52.5%
28.5%
19.0% 51
43.9%
29.6%
26.5%
Birmingham
35.0%
15.0% 27
36.4%
29.2%
34.5%
Sheffield 10
41.5%
33.8%
24.7%
31.4%
22.8%
45.9%
York 4
54.9%
23.2%
21.9% 53
29.0%
37.2%
Manchester
44.4%
32.7% 45
25.8%
31.7%
42.5%
Averages
51.5%
19.5%
34.8%
25.7%
39.4%
See section 4.6.3

11. 1.6 Contact with the under 16s
fxC type with high adult figure
Adult
Under 16s
fxC type with low adult figure
Older peoples’ church
98% 2%
Youth Church
44%
56%
Special interest group
85%
15%
Child-focused church
47%
53%
Church plant
76%
24%
Church based on <5s
49%
51%
Clusters
73%
27%
Messy Church
See sections 4.7 and 6.11

12. 1.7a Neighbourhood and network in fxC
See sections 7.5 and 6.6
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13. 1.7b Neighbourhood and network in fxC
fxC type high on neighbourhood
Neighbour-hood
Community development plant
84%
Messy Church
83%
Child-focused church
82%
Older people’s church
79%
All-age worship
77%
fxC type high on network
Network
Network church
89%
Special interest group
69%
Clusters
Youth church
63%
Alternative worship
NB Because leaders scored this on a 0-3 scale and could choose both factors as major (2 & 2), overall figures do not sum to 100%
See sections 7.5 and 6.6

14. 1.8 The Net Growth ratio at fxC
Dioceses
Those starting the fxC
Fxc attendance now
Net Growth ratio
1-11
6070
21592
2.6
12-21
8031
29032
2.5
Overall
14101
50624*
A 2.6 net growth ratio also means 260% growth since the start – rare elsewhere
* This figure is slightly inflated by the residual attenders in grafts and transplants
See sections 4.8 and 4.9
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15. 1.9 Growth plateau and shrinkage at fxC
[48%]
Evidence of ‘natural unit size’? cf. sections 6.2 and 6.3
See section 6.3 for how these factors vary by fxC type

16. Growth plateau and shrinkage at fxC by frequency of meeting
See section 8.3
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17. fxC distribution by social area
Type of area
fxC
Parish
Parish label
Rural
8.4%
14.6%
Other rural
Expanded village
14.4%
12.9%
Commuter rural
Town
13.2%
19.9%
Separate town
Suburban
17.1%
34.7%
Suburban & urban
Private estate
3.2%
Mixed estate
8.9%
Council estate
6.6%
2.9%
Urban priority
8.8%
9.6%
Inner city
Urban
14.7%
City centre
5.0%
5.5%
City Centre ?
See section and 7.3 for which types favour which areas

18. 1.10 In each area what % are X type fxC?
Messy churches
Cafe churches
Network churches
Church plants
Abbreviations of social areas
CTC – city centre URB – urban UPA - Urban priority area
CE – council estate ME – mixed council and private estate PE - Private housing estate
SUB - suburb TWN- town EPV - expanded village RUR – rural
See section 7.3

19. So nationally… ?
You can’t just ‘double your money’: There’s only one capital Dioc (as was) AWA = 93% of dioc fxC attenders might be 97,000 – but still 6% And likely to be 2100 fxC in England
How many fxC per year? – let’s do some history
In 1970s An average of 2.4 church plants per year
In It rose to 5.5 per year
In We reached a hoped for goal - 12, or one a month
In The church planting zenith of 41 per year
[the Victorian church building zenith was 1870s in the decade - 45 a year]
In a year from 11 dioceses - another 80 from 2nd 10
So now nationally a year? – not bad for 40 years progress
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20. Getting hold of the reports
Hard copy £15 today from Andrew Wooding
The Day of Small Things
An analysis of fresh expression of Church in 21 dioceses of the Church of England
George Lings
Church Army’s Research Unit
November 2016
PDF available to download for free at:
@ChurchArmy #CARUconf

21. The survey of fxC attenders
Over to Claire and John
The survey of fxC attenders