1. Auto Industry Update: Sales, Production, Employment and Wages
Kristin Dziczek
Director, Industry & Labor Group Center for Automotive Research
18 November 2014

2. A bit of history
First CityWide Change Bank—losing money on nearly every car sold, buying market share with $ on the hood
Ford bet the blue oval—capital markets no longer functioning for GM and Chrysler and faced with 40% market decline in
$80 million government loans, Fiat-Chrysler tie-up and UAW concessions that improved labor cost competitiveness by about $20/hour. (all but about $11 billion recovered so far)
Now have an industry with about half the productive capacity it once had, but that can “break even” or make money at much lower production levels.
have been some of the D3’s most profitable years ever.
So…people often ask us…

3. Is the Auto Industry Back?
Product? Yes.
Productivity? Yes.
Profitability? Yes.
Investment? Yes.
Production? Yes.
Sales? Sort of.
Employment? No.

4. The Market is Back (in $, anyway) U. S
The Market is Back (in $, anyway) U.S. Light Vehicle Sales in Dollars and Units Q 2014
Billions USD, 2009
PRE-RECESSSION
PEAK LEVEL
$301.4 B
2009
$476.2 B
2006
WORST LEVEL SINCE 1995
$529.0 B
3Q 2014
CURRENT
Million Units
PRE-RECESSSION
PEAK LEVEL
10.4 M
2009
17.2 M
2000
WORST LEVEL SINCE 1982
16.5
3Q 2014
CURRENT
Source: Center for Automotive Research, U.S. Department of Commerce

5. U.S. GDP Growth and Vehicle Sales Growth Rates 1952 – 2013
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

6. CAR U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast: 2014-2020
1.8%
1.8%
4.5%
Source: CAR Research, Oct. 2014

7. U.S. Market Share: YTD October 2014
Updated: 4-November By: Allen
Source: Auto News, CAR Research

8. Market Share: Segment Breakdown – U.S. LV Sales October YTD 2014
Updated: 6-November By: Allen
Note: Small, Middle, and Large CUV categories include luxury and non-luxury CUVs.
Source: Ward’s Auto

9. Motor Vehicle & Parts Manufacturing Employment 1999 – September 2014
50% change
64% change
53% change
47% change
Last update: 10/31/14 Updated by: Troy
Series Id:    
CEU
CEU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
Source: BLS, U.S. DOL, Statistics Canada 9 9

10. Automotive Industry Employment by States, September 2014 and YTD Growth
+5,900
+400
+5,300
+4,400
+2,600
+3,200
(400)
(400)
+600
(500)
+1,000
+900
+100
+1,400
Updated: 9/8/2014 By: Troy
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
SMU
*Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Employment
Source: Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. Michigan Auto Manufacturing Employment Up 24%; Remains # 1 in Share of U.S. Auto Employment
Michigan Motor Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing Employment—Dec Aug. 2014
State Shares of U.S. Motor Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing Employment—August 2014
+34,200 jobs (+27.4%)
Number of Employees
Employment Share
Aug 2010:
158,900
+34,200 jobs (+27.4%)
Dec 2010:
124,700
Michigan motor vehicle manuf. employment grew by 27.4% and 34,200 jobs have been added since Dec 2010.
Michigan is the largest automotive state, with 22% of all U.S. motor vehicle and parts manufacturing employment.
The definition of motor vehicle manufacturing is NAICS 3361 (Motor Vehicle Manufacturing) and NAICS 3363 (Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing).
Source: Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics; NAICS 3361 & 3363

12. Michigan Motor Vehicle Production Up 28%; Remains #1 in Share of U. S
Michigan Motor Vehicle Production Up 28%; Remains #1 in Share of U.S. Vehicle Production
Michigan Motor Vehicle Production & Share of U.S.
Dec Jun. 2014
State Shares of U.S. Vehicle Production—2014 YTD (Jun.)
Motor Vehicle Production in Units
Production Share
June 2010:
208,746
Dec 2010:
102,917
Michigan vehicle production is up by 27.5% 2014 YTD (through June) compared to the same period in 2011.
Production volume has increased by the equivalent of the output of three assembly plants since 2010.
Source: Ward’s Auto; LMC Automotive

13. Michigan was the Second Largest NAFTA Producer of Engines & Transmissions in 2013
Michigan ranked second for all engine & transmission production in the NAFTA Region; however, Michigan ranks first in production of Detroit Three engines & transmissions.
Source: LMC Automotive

14. Announced Automaker Investment Activity
Michigan has Captured 26% of Automakers’ NAFTA Investment Announcements in the Past Four Years
Announced Automaker Investment Activity
Quarterly Summary of North American Investment Activity
North American Total
Michigan
Michigan’s Share of N.A.
2010-Q4
4,317,900,000
2,557,700,000
59%
2011-Q1
1,382,000,000
87,000,000 6%
2011-Q2
2,472,500,000
576,000,000
23%
2011-Q3
4,836,900,000
972,200,000
20%
2011-Q4
9,904,100,000
2,975,000,000
30%
2012-Q1
4,347,000,000
15,000,000 0%
2012-Q2
1,559,900,000
50,000,000 3%
2012-Q3
1,026,000,000
2012-Q4
1,595,800,000
1,334,800,000
84%
2013-Q1
2,285,500,000
458,000,000
2013-Q2
2,834,300,000
337,200,000
12%
2013-Q3
1,951,600,000
103,000,000 5%
2013-Q4
1,774,150,000
1,228,500,000
69%
2014-Q1
2,255,800,000
362,000,000
16%
2014-Q2
1,974,000,000
524,000,000
27%
Since the 4th quarter of 2010, Michigan has received $11 billion in announced automaker investments. The state accounts for 26% of automakers’ NAFTA investment announcements in the past four years.
Source: Center for Automotive Research—The Book of Deals

15. Michigan’s Automotive Exports are Growing; Remains #1 in Dollar Volume of U.S. Automotive Exports
Top 10 U.S. Automotive Exporting States— (NAICS 3361, 3362, & 3363)
Michigan is well ahead of all other states in dollar volume of automotive exports, and leads by a 50% margin. The major destinations for Michigan automotive exports are Canada and Mexico.
Source: International Trade Administration TradeStat Express

16. Projected Motor Vehicle & Parts Employment by Major Occupational Group, 2012 & 2022
Motor Vehicle & Parts Employment projected to grow 5.6%
Skilled Trades (+7.7%), Production (+6.8%), and Computer/Math/ Engineering (+6.2%) projected to show above average growth
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic & Employment Projections

17. Michigan Vehicle Production & Automotive Employment Forecasts: 2014 – 2020
Source: LMC Automotive; BLS; CAR Research, Oct. 2014

18. Median Duration of Job Postings in Michigan was Longer than in Much of the Rest of the Country in 2013
Median Job Posting Duration in Detroit/Warren/Livonia MSA for Occupation Groups Common In Automotive & Parts Industries
Source: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings , “Still Searching: Job Vacancies and STEM Skills,” July Data represents Q

19. Average Wages in Motor Vehicle & Parts Manufacturing 1990-2014 (average dollars per hour)
Source: Center for Automotive Research, U.S. Department of Labor

20. Ann. Avg. Wage Distribution: Electrical, Industrial, Materials & Mechanical Engineers, Motor Vehicle Parts, 2010 & 2013 + + +
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational and Employment Statistics Survey

21. Ann. Avg. Wage Distribution: Team Assemblers, Machine Repair, CNC Prog
Ann. Avg. Wage Distribution: Team Assemblers, Machine Repair, CNC Prog. & Tool/Die, Motor Vehicle Parts, 2010 & 2013 +
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational and Employment Statistics Survey

22. Number of Online Automotive Job Postings in Top Ten States
Source: Labor Insight

23. Online Automotive Job Postings by Occupations And Michigan Share of U
Online Automotive Job Postings by Occupations And Michigan Share of U.S. Total, 2Q 2014
Source: Labor Insight

24. U.S. Automotive Patents Granted: Top 10 States by Number of Patents from 1970-2012
Source: U.S. Patent Office

25. Electrified Vehicle Segment Breakdown – August 2014 YTD
MI and U.S. Segment Shares of Electrified Vehicles
Updated: 16-September By: Allen
MI-Produced Electrified Vehicles: Cadillac ELR, Ford C-Max, Ford C-Max Energi, Ford Focus EV, Ford Fusion Energi, Chevrolet Volt
*MI-Produced Share of Total U.S. Electrified Vehicle Sales
**Electrified Vehicle Share of Total U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports; HybridCars.com; CAR Research

26. Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) Technology Projects by States
Source: International Survey of Best Practices in Connected and Automated Vehicle Technologies, 2013 Update, MDOT, Center for Automotive Research

27. Vehicle Material Composition in U.S. Market 1978 – 2012
Aluminum
Source: Ward’s Auto; American Chemistry Council

28. Questions…