1. Estimating the employment creation effect: the Bugoye example
Subtitle if needed – 21pt Arial reg
Andrew Scott – Research Fellow
17 September 2015

2. Bugoye Hydro Power Project
Small hydropower plant:
13 MW
Run of river
On-grid
Kasese, Western Uganda
Began operation Oct 2009
Study was in 2012/13
Total investment $63.6 million
$31.7 million debt finance from EAIF (PIDG)

3. The results Number of Jobs Number of Person Years Direct 1,079
Number of Jobs
Number of Person Years
Direct
1,079
2,333.92
Indirect
109
2,678.37
Induced
82 – 90
2, – 2,256.84
Secondary
8,434 – 10,256
210,850 – 256,400
Total
9,704 – 11,534
217,967 – 263,718

4. The context Rural location Low level of electrification
National generation capacity shortage
Unreliable grid

5. The overall approach
Broadly followed IFC approach – direct, indirect, induced and secondary employment
Categorisation from PIDG –
project-related and users of electricity
Limited data – so adaptations
Focus on changes in productivity as the pathway to job creation
Enterprise and household survey data plus information from stakeholders

6. Job creation effects conceptually

7. Steps to estimate induced job creation

8. The employment multiplier
Multiplier needed to estimate secondary job creation
Based on household expenditure data and GDP share
Broad sectors: industry, services, agriculture
Skilled and unskilled earnings
Additional expenditure attributable to the project

9. Reflections Data limitations can be worked around
Qualitative aspects of job creation can be relevant
Approach may be appropriate for other small projects
Approach may be appropriate for context of unreliable power

10. www.odi.org a.scott@odi.org.uk
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