1. Traffic forecasting and autonomous vehicles
Serbjeet Kohli Luis Willumsen

2. The disruptive nature of Autonomous Vehicles (AV)
They are only 4 years away
They will change:
Traffic and reduce accidents
Capacity of roadways
Average speeds
Trip induction
Vehicle ownership & ride sharing
Willingness to pay to save time
Public Transport mode share
Shape of cities and suburbs
Probably other things as well: activities and lifestyle

3. AVs are not the only problem
Peak car
Energy prices
Distance presence
Internet procurement
Additive manufacturing
Internet of things
Attitudes to globalisation
Populism, new nationalism…...
Let’s deal with one problem at the time: AVs in our models and forecasts

4. Some Key Questions For Level 4/5 (no need for drivers)
When AVs will be available for purchase by ordinary citizens in your country/region?
When AVs will be 10% and 20% of the car fleet in your country/region?
What premium will AVs secure compared to a normal car?
What proportion of the AV fleet will be owned by individuals whilst the rest hired with Uber style pricing?

5. A Delphi Poll
Delphi Method: interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

6. When will AVs be available?
Average 2023 but
US/Canada 2021
L America 2026

7. AV as share of FLEET: function of car ownership growth, AV premium, AV share of purchases, scrap rate.
Initial 1 million car fleet, some growth, 5% scrap rate; increasing share of purchases 2% 5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%

8. AV as share of TRAFFIC: function of AVs in fleet, Induction, empty running.

9. When will AVs be 10% of fleet?
Average 2032 but
US/Canada 2028
L America 2039

10. A Delphi poll for Level 4/5 AV
12 Key questions
For rental AVs, how much cheaper/expensive than Uber?
a and b. Impact on the capacity of freeways/motorways when AVs are 10% and 20% of the traffic?
a and b. Impact on the capacity of urban roads when AVs are 10% and 20% of traffic?
a and b. Effect on trip making for AV owners and renters five years after they become available?

11. AVs will be rented or owned?
Average 42% but
Europe 33%
L America 57%

12. How expensive AV rental?
Average 0.9 but
US/Canada 0.7
RoW 1.3

13. Impact on motorway capacities at 10% and 20% of traffic
Averages 1.0 and 1.1
but US 1.1 and 1.2

14. A Delphi poll for Level 4/5 AV
12 Key questions
a and b. Impact on urban bus Public Transport demand when AVs are 10% or 20% of the car fleet?
a and b. Impact on urban Fixed Track Public Transport (Rail, metro, LRT, BRT)?
a,b and c. Effect on the behavioural Value of Travel Time Savings (VTTS) of AV users?
a,b and c. Effect on the Social Value of Time for Cost Benefit Analysis?

15. Impact on bus Public Transport
Average 0.9
but in US Canada 0.7

16. Impact on fixed track Public Transport
Average 0.9 for
both levels

17. gives an average ratio of 0.80
Impact on Values of Travel Time Savings
Average ratio 0.9
Ignoring ratios > 1
gives an average ratio of 0.80 

18. Premium to pay for an AV around US$ 6,600
Other results (average responses)
Premium to pay for an AV around US$ 6,600
AVs will be 20% of the fleet around 2037
Impact on urban roads at low AV penetration would be minimal
AV owners would make some 10% more VKT than normal car users
AV renters would make some 10% fewer VKT than normal car users
Equity Values of Time should change in line with Behavioural Values of Time

19. Suggestions The estimates are widely spread
Current levels of uncertainty
Different regional views even within countries
Influenced by quality of public transport or emotional attachment to driving cars
There is no single answer; main drivers seem to be:
Rental vs owned AVs
Labour costs vs technology costs
Public transport LOS & scope for AV as feeder
Land Use density
DO NOT USE THE AVERAGE RESPONSES
Develop scenarios appropriate to your case and update them yearly; learn to live with the uncertainty.

20. Thank you