1. Trust and the Gulf Cooperation Council
Dr. Vincent Charles Keating
Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark
Dr. Lucy Abbott
Department of Politics International Relations, University of Oxford

2. Introduction and Research Problem
Study of trust has been primarily confined to liberal democratic states
Empirically limited
Just democratic peace theory?
Study of the Gulf Cooperation Council fills a gap
Alliance of non-democratic, non-liberal monarchies
Sinatra-type case study

3. Previous GCC IR Literature
Realism
Alliance to counter influence/threat of Iran/Iraq
Social Constructivism (security communities)
Limited defense cooperation
History of internal interference
On the face of things, limited possibilities for trust from a security perspective

4. Our Argument Trusting relationships exist, but require a focus on
Internal security
Social norms
Security of regime from insurrection at least as much of a threat as external invasion
Different from most institutions, but focus of trust relationships

5. Identifying Trusting Relationships
Rooted in social trust theory based on two criteria
Changes in hedging relationships
Evidence of betrayal
Problems with purely emotional stance
Conflates the characteristics of an independent causal variable with the characteristics of the phenomenon itself
Removes possibility of habituality?
Focuses on an intermediary variable less important than the causes of that variable
Distinct one-sided bias in opposite casual pattern: betrayal

6. GCC Crisis Over the Arab Spring
Falling out between Qatar and Saudi Arabia
Arab Spring brings possibility of internal instability to the Gulf region
GCC states clamp down on potential domestic threats
Qatar breaks from the pack in supporting anti-regime revolts in Libya, Syria, and Egypt
Saudi sees Muslim Brotherhood as ideological competition

7. The Trusting Relationship
Strong social norm of maintaining face in the GCC
Supported by norms of informal mediation, advice-making, and particularly consensus
Almost no hedging strategies employed against defection
GCC has very low levels of institutionalization, relying instead on these norms
States had relative freedom to pursue goals even with Saudi hegemony

8. The Betrayal
Qatar supports Islamist forces in the Arab spring, particularly Muslim Brotherhood
Saudi Arabia sees this as a betrayal of the core values of preserving internal security and face-saving
Evidence of betrayal: ‘shocking’ moves by Saudi in responding publically to defection
In coalition with UAE and Bahrain, withdraws ambassadors

9. Rebuilding Trust Move from habitual to calculative trust
Importance of betrayer to demonstrate trustworthiness
Saudi aggrieved party: incumbent on Qatar to make amends
Does not retaliate in recalling diplomats
Engages in confidence-building measures such as recalling Egyptian ambassadors
Follows Saudi in recalling envoy to Iran

10. Summary
Potential for trusting relationships in non-liberal democratic states
Potential of linking trusting relationships to particular social norms
Moves it beyond ‘norms of reciprocity’
Potential of identifying security concerns that IR might otherwise ignore: internal security