1. OCBC March 7th 2012 Peter Mather, Group Regional Vice President, Europe

2. Today’s agenda The Outlook for Energy The Factors behind Energy Policy
BP – our own and the Industry’s Challenges
Discussion

3. Non-OECD economies continue to drive consumption growth

4. Fuel substitution is the main story in the OECD

5. Energy consumption growth by sector

6. Convergence of energy intensity and fuel shares

8. Four key factors in our energy future
Demand Growth
economic growth
urbanisation
efficiency
Security
of Supply
import dependence
resource competition
Environmental Constraints
local pollution
climate change
Supply Challenges
significant resources
infrastructure
alternatives
Energy Policy & Technology
Demand Growth
rapid GDP growth esp. in developing countries
growth of megacities
changing customer preferences
potential for demand side intervention
Supply & Resources
significant hydrocarbon resource potential
misalignment between resource location and demand
growing supply challenges
growth of unconventionals
Security of Supply
continuing governance failures in producing countries
significant rise in import dependence
new policy initiatives to enhance energy security
growing competition for energy resources
Environmental Constraints
climate change and potential for carbon constraints
tightening of regulation relating to local pollution
increasing scrutiny for extractive industries
Technology

9. External Context
Gulf of Mexico incident
- BP Reputation – focus on safety, trust, value
- Industry Reputation
Oil prices
Global Economy
Geopolitics
Political Imperatives
- Energy Security
- Affordability
- Climate Change

10. BP has seen change before
: Iraq, Iran, Kuwait nationalised
1933: Kuwait Oil Company formed (50/50 BP/Gulf)
1951: Temporarily nationalised in Iran; diluted to 40%
1998: Merger with Amoco
2003 TNK-BP
1908: Masjid-i-Suleiman discovery in Iran
1978: Sohio fully consolidated (100% 1987)
1968: Prudhoe Bay discovery
1970: Forties
Production (mboe/d)
North Sea & Alaska growth
1911: Iran starts producing
1927: Iraq Kirkuk discovery
European refining expansion: by 1973 interests in 20 refineries
Sohio brings entry into US downstream
Acquisitions:
1998 Amoco
2000 Arco
2002 Veba
1975: Kuwait refinery nationalised
1951: Iran refineries nationalised
Throughput (kbd)
Slide Update: This slide is updated on an annual basis. Next update is due in July 2012
This slide is approved for External use
Speaker’s Notes: Source: Competitor Intelligence.
1955: Kwinana commissioned
1913: Iran Abadan refinery starts-up
1938: Abadan the world’s largest refinery

11. Moving BP Forward Our 10 - point plan
What you can expect
What you can expect
What you can measure
Relentless focus on safety and managing risk
Play to our strengths
Stronger and more focused
Simpler and more standardized
More visibility and transparency to value
Active portfolio management to continue
New upstream projects onstream with unit operating cash margins double the 2011 average(1)
Generate around 50% more annually in operating cash flow by 2014 versus 2011 at $100/bbl(2)
Half of incremental operating cash for re-investment, half for other purposes including distributions
Strong balance sheet
In October we set out our 10-point plan - five points to expect and five to measure.
We said we would focus relentlessly on safety, play to our strengths, and be stronger, more focused, simpler and more standardized. We promised to create more visibility and transparency to value.
In terms of measures, you will see continuing active portfolio management. In October we announced an intention to pursue a further $15 billion of divestments, making a four year total of $45 billion by the end of With the subsequent termination of our previously announced divestment of Pan American Energy the total is now $38 billion.
We expect to see new projects coming onstream with operating cash margins around double the 2011 upstream average by 2014 – at $100 oil, and excluding TNK-BP.
You can expect us to generate an increase of around 50% in additional operating cash flow in 2014 compared to approximately half from ending Gulf of Mexico Trust Fund payments and around half from operations.
We plan to use around half that extra cash for re-investment and half for other purposes including shareholder distributions. And all of this will be underpinned by a strong balance sheet.
(1) Assuming a constant $100/bbl oil price and excluding TNK-BP
(2) See Statement of Assumptions under Cautionary Statement

12. Discussion