1. Study on the G20’s Transition from the Perspective of China’s Strategy in Global Economic Governance
Sun Wei

2. Contents I Introduction II Literature Review III
The G20 and its Transition
III IV
China’s Expectation and Sino-Korea Cooperation
China’s Expectations and Sino-Korea Cooperation V
Conclusion

3. G20’s Economic Quota No. G20 member States GDP Ranking in 2015
GDP Per capita Ranking in 2015 1
United States 5 2
China 73 3
Japan 25 4
Germany 19
France 21 6
Great Britain 14 7
Brazil 68 8
India
141 9
Russia 71 10
Italy 27 11
Canada 15 12
Australia 13
South Korea 29
Mexico 63
Indonesia 16
118
Turkey 17 64
Saudi Arabia 38 18
Argentina 53
South Africa 28 84 20 EU /

4. What are the potential directions of the G20’s transition?
I. Introduction
What are the potential directions of the G20’s transition?
What is China’s expectation on the G20’s transition and why?
How China and South Korea should cooperate in the G20? Q1 Q2 Q3

5. II. Literature Review Prospects of the G20’s Transition
Paths of the G20’s Transition
Alternative Solutions before the G20’s Transition

6. 1. Prospects of the G20’s Transition
*A permanent institution.
*An effective steering committee for the world economy.
*A more comprehensive coordination platform of global governance oriented.
Con
* G20’s future is G7.
*Obstacles: U.S. doesn’t agree; other international organizations don’t agree; binding commitments are not necessary.

7. 2. Paths of the G20’s Transition
The Establishment of Secretariat
Pro
a small secretariat can bring effective regulation.
Secretariat can make G20 more formal and stable .
Con
Secretariat will reduce the authority of leaders.
Cooperation between the G20 and other organizations are already effective.
not a good timing.

8. 3. Alternative Solutions before the G20’s Transition
*Deepen cooperation between the G20 and other international organizations
*Establishment of a G20 “non-secretariat”
*Launch a dialog partnership institution among regions
*Improve the mechanism of Council Chairperson and Special Committees
*Enrich the function of coordinators

9. III. The G20 and its Transition
From G7 to G20 and G20 Summit
Hidden Troubles of the G20
Potential Directions of the G20’s future Transition

10. 1. From G7 to G20 and G20 Summit 2016 G7 Summit G20 Summit
1976
1999
2008
2016
Oil Crisis
Asian Crisis
U.S. Crisis
China
G7 Summit
G20 Summit
G20 Ministry
Hangzhou Summit

11. 2. Hidden Troubles of the G20
No.1
No.2
No.3
Difficulties in the Cooperation between members of the G20 rise up
Lack of effectiveness is another query of the G20
The representativeness is also queried if the authority declines

12. G20’s Representativeness Distribution
G20’s Representativeness Distribution in States’ Groups
G20’s Representativeness
Distribution on Continents
Notes: EU is taken as one member.

13. 3.Potential Directions of the G20’s Transition1
The Premium Consultation and Coordination Institution for Global Economic Governance 2
The Consultation and Coordination Institution for Global Development 3
The Consultation and Coordination Institution for Political, Security and Social issues

14. IV. China’s Expectation and Sino-Korea Cooperation
The G20 is the hub of “Stock Reform” and “ Incremental Updating” of China
China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition
Tips on Sino-Korean Cooperation in the G20

15. 1. G20 is the hub of “Stock Reform” and “Incremental Updating” of China
is to push the global economic governance through an incremental path
Stock Reform
is to push the reform of global economic governance from the stock perspective

16. 2.China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition: From Hangzhou Summit
Two Directions
Three Principles
Three Orientations
Hub
A. Crisis-response mechanism to long-term governance institution;
B. short-term policy oriented to mid-to-long term policy oriented
A. Economic Issues Priority
B. Development Issues insisting
C. Mid-to-Long term Issues
A. Action-oriented
B. Out-reaching
C. World-Embracing
A. Stock Reform items
B. Incremental Updating items

17. Figure 1:Growth Rate of Global Economy (2007-2015)
Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF (April. 2016)

18. Comparison with Prediction in January
Table 1 Comparison of IMF’s Prediction on Global Economic Growth Rate between January and June
Economies
Growth Rate in
Comparison with Prediction in January
2016
2017 US
2.2%
2.5%
↓0.4%
↓0.1%
Euro Zone
1.5%
1.4%
↓0.2%
↓0.3%
Japan
0.5%
-0.1%
↓0.5%
China
6.5%
6.2%
↑0.2%
India
7.5%
Even
Russia
-1.8%
1.0%
↓0.8%
World
3.1%
3.4%
Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF (July. 2016)

19. Table 2 World Bank’s Prediction on Growth Rate of Major Economies unit: %
2013y
2014y
2015y
(estimated)
2016y
(predicted)
2017y
2018y
World
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Developed Economies
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.9
U.S.
1.5
2.2
2.1
Euro Zone
-0.3
0.9
1.6
Japan
1.4
-0.1
0.5
0.7
Emerging Economies
4.7
4.2
3.4
3.5
4.4
China
7.7
7.3
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.3
Source: Global Economic Prospects, World Bank (June. 2016)

20. 2.China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition: From Hangzhou Summit
Two Directions
Three Principles
Three Orientations
Hub
A. Crisis-response mechanism to long-term governance institution;
B. short-term policy oriented to mid-to-long term policy oriented
A. Economic Issues Priority
B. Development Issues
C. Mid-to-Long term Issues
A. Action-oriented
B. Out-reaching
C. World-Embracing
A. Stock Reform items (10)
B. Incremental Updating items (15)

21. Table 3 Ten Major Expected Outcomes of G20 Hangzhou Summit
1. work out a blueprint for innovation-driven growth.
2.adopt an action plan for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
3.identify priority areas and set up guiding principles as well as an indicator system for structural reforms
4. adopt a global trade growth strategy
5. lay out the guiding principles for global investment policies
6. deepen reform of the international financial architecture
7. launch three-pronged anti-corruption cooperation
8.initiate cooperation to support industrialization of Africa and least developed countries (LDCs) in the world
9. formulate an entrepreneurship action plan
10. push for early entry-into-force of the Paris Agreement on climate change
Source：“100 days countdown to the G20 Hangzhou Summit: Ten Expected Outcomes”

22. Table 4 Theme and Key Agenda Items of Hangzhou Summit in 2016
No.
Theme
Key Agenda Items I
Breaking a New Path for Growth 1
Maintaining the Momentum of World Economic recovery 2
Lifting Mid-to-Long term Growth Potential II
More Effective and Efficient Global Economic and Financial Governance 3
Improving International Financial Architecture to Meet Future Challenges 4
Continuing Financial Sector Reforms 5
Developing Green Finance 6
Improving International Tax Regime 7
Implement Consensus on Anti-corruption
III
Robust International Trade and Investment 8
Reinforcing trade and investment Cooperation Mechanism 9
Supporting the Multilateral Trade System 10
Promoting Global trade growth 11
Promoting Inclusive and Integrated Global Value Chains 12
Enhancing Cooperation and Coordination on Global Investment Policy IV
Inclusive and Interconnected Development 13
Implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable development 14
Optimizing G20’s Development Cooperation agenda 15
Building Infrastructure and Connectivity 16
Promoting Accessible, Affordable and Sustainable Energy Supply 17
Increasing Employment 18
Improving Food security and Nutrition 19
Mobilizing Climate Finance 20
Eradicating Poverty 21
Supporting Industrialization in African and other Developing countries

23. 2.China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition: From Hangzhou Summit
Two Directions
Three Principles
Three Orientations
Hub
A. Crisis-response mechanism to long-term governance institution;
B. short-term policy oriented to mid-to-long term policy oriented
A. Economic Issues Priority
B. Development Issues
C. Mid-to-Long term Issues
A. Action-oriented
B. Out-reaching
C. World-Embracing
A. Stock Reform items (10)
B. Incremental Updating items (15)

24. 3.Tips for Sino-Korea Cooperation in the G20
Proper handle strategic and security conflicts, maintain the good momentum of bilateral economic relations
Tip2
Integrating “Belt and Road” initiative and “Eurasia Initiative” into the G20 Framework
Tip3
Leading the Cooperation and Coordination between BRICS and MIKTA

25. V. Conclusion
Transit or not, it is not a question for the G20 any more.
Three potential directions of the G20’s transition.
China is the supporter of the first two directions of the G20’s transition, but should be cautious for the third.
South Korea is no doubt an important strategic partner of China in the G20 if only both can keep the good momentum of bilateral relations.

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