1. Reconciling the System of National Accounts for the U. S
Reconciling the System of National Accounts for the U.S. and Estimation of Structural Distribution of the Statistical Discrepancy
Baoline Chen
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Washington, DC 20230
July 15~17, 2009
15th International Conference on Computing
in Economics and Finance
Sydney, Australia

2. 1. Introduction

3. Introduction (cont.)

4. Introduction (cont.)

5. Introduction (cont.)

6. Introduction (cont.)

7. 2. Major Data Problems Identified

8. 3. GLS Reconciliation Model

9. GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

10. GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

11. GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

12. GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

13. 4. Reliability of Initial Data

14. Reliability of Initial Data (Cont.)

15. Reliability of Initial Data (Cont.)

16. 5. Balanced Estimates and Distribution of Aggregate SD

18. Table 2-a: Balanced Estimates of Industry Aggregates and % Adjustments from Initial Estimates

19. Table 2-b: Balanced Estimates of Commodity Aggregates and Percentage Adjustments from Initial Estimates

21. Table 3: Distribution of Aggregate SD between VA and Final Uses

23. Table 4-a: Initial and Balanced Estimates for 65 Industries (In billion dollars and %)

24. Table 4-b: Initial and Balanced Estimates for 69 Commodities (In billion dollars and %)

25. Table 5-a: Estimates of Statistical Discrepancy by Industry (In billion dollars and %)

26. Table 5-b: Estimates of Statistical Discrepancy by Expenditure Category (In billion dollars and %)

27. Histograms and Statistics of % Adjustment in Variables

28. Histograms and Statistics of % Adjustment in Variables

29. Histograms and Statistics of SD distribution

30. 6. Conclusion

31. Absolute Percentage Adjustments in Gross Output and Intermediate Inputs

32. Absolute Percentage Adjustments in GOS and Final Uses

33. Statistics of Absolute Percentage Adjustments in Variables