1. MODULE 2 – SESSION 2 SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
This session is one of the most important elements of the contingency planning process. It requires us to answer two basic questions:
What is going to happen?
What are you going to do?

2. Participants are able to list the steps to scenario development.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Participants are familiar with different approaches to scenario development.
Participants are able to list the steps to scenario development.
By end of this session, participants should be familiar with different approaches to scenario development. They should be able to list the steps to scenario development and develop scenarios based on their own local context.

3. Description of a situation that could occur
WHAT IS A SCENARIO?
Description of a situation that could occur
Informed assumptions about a situation that requires humanitarian action
INSERT YOUR OWN INDICATIVE PHOTO OF POTENTIAL HAZARD EFFECTS HERE: VOLCANIS ASH, EARTHQUAKE RUBBLE, BURNED FOREST, FLOODED HOMES, ETC.
INSERT YOUR OWN INDICATIVE PHOTO OF POTENTIAL HAZARD EFFECTS HERE: VOLCANIS ASH, EARTHQUAKE RUBBLE, BURNED FOREST, FLOODED HOMES, ETC.
Scenarios are descriptions of situations that could occur & they are informed assumptions about a situation that requires humanitarian action. Contingency plans, unlike disaster response or other more general preparedness plans, are built around specific planning scenarios.
When responding to a crisis, one of the first actions performed by an organization is to conduct an assessment. The assessment strives to answer what has happened, where & why, how many people have been affected and for how long. When developing a contingency plan, the answers to these questions are unknown. Therefore, contingency planners use scenarios as the basis for planning instead of actual emergency phase assessment since the planned for emergency has not yet happened.

4. WHAT IS SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT?
Process of developing a scenario in anticipation of disaster
Based on experience & early warning indicators
Important step in contingency planning process
Various approaches to scenario development
Scenario development for contingency planners is the process of developing a scenario in anticipation of a disaster. It is based on past experience & forward-looking early warning indicators. It is an important step in the overall contingency planning process. There are various approaches to scenario development. We will look at 4 different approaches.

5. METHODS OF SCENARIO BUILDING
Best, most likely & worst case scenario
Augmentation approach
Timeline approach
Operationally representative approach
There are 4 approaches in scenario development. We have placed all 4 approaches around the room. In your group, go around the room and go over each approach. Write the central idea for each approach.
At the end of the exercise, discuss the responses and list the central idea for each approach. Refer to session plan, handout & wall charts.
Conclude - given that contingency planning involves the preparation of plans for specific situations, it is difficult to prepare contingency plans to cover every possibility. Therefore, it is necessary to prioritize and, at least, prepare contingency plans for the highest-risk scenarios identified.
Based on the risk analysis, National Societies and International Federation delegations should focus planning and scenario building on the most relevant situations – whether at local, national or regional levels.

6. SOURCES OF INFORMATION
EXPERT OPINION
HISTORICAL ANALOGY
FIELD ASSESSMENT
PROJECTION AGAINST BASELINE
RESPONSE ANALYSIS
There are 5 main sources of information for developing scenarios and these range from simple to complex.
Expert opinion is when scenarios are developed by collective consensus among relevant, available experts. This is a common method when there is no good historical base for developing scenarios. This method is useful when the scenarios deal with social hazards such as conflict. Expert opinion can answer question of ‘what is going to happen?’. Expert opinion can provide high quality information on hydro-geological, meteorological, seismic. Other examples include academic work that can provide insight on marginalized groups & their coping mechanisms. This is important when there is no VCA to draw on.
Historical analogy uses the history of past crises to develop future scenarios. Secondary sources are analyzed to review previous crises. It provides extremely valuable insight into issues such as what happens when a certain scale of flood, cyclone hits & how other actors including NS actors would act.
Field assessment provides baseline information. Key informants are interviewed and scenarios are discussed. This method is useful when little information is available.
Projection against baseline is when key assumptions about the impact of a crisis are made and then tested against baseline data. The result is the projection that can be quantified. This is useful in population displacement or food security field. For example using baseline nutritional or food supply information it can be possible to determine thresholds for interventions.
Response analysis is a method used to generate operationally representative scenarios. This method works well when similar situations are faced regularly, and previous operational responses can be evaluated.

7. CHALLENGES OF SCENARIO BUILDING
Scenario trap
Lack of flexibility or adaptability
Limited focus on impact of disaster on lives & livelihood
There are three main challenges when developing scenarios:
Scenario Trap
Lack of Flexibility or Adaptability
Limited Focus on Impact of Disaster on Lives & Livelihood
Scenario Trap occurs when planners or participants are stuck in determining the scenarios and become unable to move on to actual development of the contingency plans, which is the crux of the planning process. Often, the challenges are faced when deciding upon variables of risk, such as what could happen, how many may be affected, or how likely the occurrence of the hazard actually is. Lengthy discussions with varied opinions on this may ensue, leaving little time to discuss all the other steps of a contingency planning process. This is a counterproductive process.
Lack of flexibility and adaptability may defeat the purpose of a contingency plan. Lack of flexibility and adaptability may arise when planners pay too much attention to detail and try to cover a wide scope that is beyond their capacity.
Finally, in the excitement of detailing scenarios, planners may fail to focus on the impact the disaster has on lives and livelihood. Often, the tendency is to highlight the surface i.e. number of people who need support without scrutinizing the impact of this disaster on the individuals and their livelihoods thus making the interventions less effective.
We will look at how these challenges may be addressed in the next slides.

8. How can we address the following challenges:
EXERCISE: 5 minutes
How can we address the following challenges:
Scenario trap
Lack of flexibility or adaptability
Lack of focus on impact of disaster on lives & livelihood
Ask participants to work in 3 groups and discuss the exercise. Debrief using the next slide.

9. ADDRESSING CHALLENGES
SCENARIO TRAP
LACK OF FLEXIBILITY
NO FOCUS ON IMPACT
Acknowledge we make assumptions
No need to be accurate
Agree to compromise
Respect time limit set
Revisit the scenarios after doing plan
Build scenarios with specific objectives
Use operational consequence to develop the scenarios
Develop scenarios that support responses of many situations
Avoid details; use range
Focus scenarios on impact on people
Develop scenarios & discuss response strategy & implementation
- APPOINT SOMEONE TO REMIND US MOVE ON -
Debrief the response from the groups. Show this slide and list the practical ways to address these challenges. Encourage the group to appoint someone who could assist the wider group to move on. Agree on how the appointed person will draw the group’s attention when the group is stuck (use bell, or clap, or something funny).
Critical queries the appointed person should ask:
Do we have enough details, do we need more?
What is the impact of the disaster on lives & livelihood?
Have we spent sufficient time developing scenarios?