1. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15
Assessing the Relationship between Operational Performance and Affordability throughout the Life Cycle
21-24 July, 2015
Tom Collipi
Technical Fellow
Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

2. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15
Abstract
Today’s financial and political environment is one of shrinking defense budgets in the face of constant or increasing threats. As such, there is a need to increase the efficiency and productivity of defense spending. In response to this, the US Department of Defense has established affordability targets, such as: average unit acquisition cost and average annual operating and support (O&S) cost. These key performance parameters are tracked and reported at each of the procurement milestone decision points and throughout the weapon system’s life cycle. Until recently, comprehensive modeling and simulation tools have not been available to support required trade studies or analyses that forecast the relationship between operational performance (i.e., Availability, Launch Schedule Effectiveness, Effective Time on Station, etc.), support resources (i.e., spares, support equipment, facilities, and manpower) requirements, and overall O&S costs. Using an object oriented simulation engine, material availability can be modeled using the planned operational utilization, the inherent R&M characteristics, the scheduled maintenance requirements and the necessary support resources. This technique establishes a closed loop system – where a specific set of support resources result in operational capability (material availability, mission capable rate, break rate, fix rate, departure reliability, etc.). The cost of these resources can then be estimated to form the foundation of the overall O&S cost. This presentation offers a methodology to model this complex performance-versus-affordability interaction: • Early in the concept definition process to develop the initial O&S cost estimates and resulting performance • During the development process to refine these estimates, and • Throughout the rest of the weapon system’s life cycle (initial fielding, operations and sustainment and disposal). This presentation will examine the implications of manpower policies on the ability to generate effective time on station and the cost of providing that surveillance coverage.
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

3. Modeling and Simulation Trade Space
Number of Platforms (A/C, UAV, GS)
Number of Locations
Operational
Dials
Mission Schedule / Priority
Duty Day / Personnel Limitations
System Utilization
Support
Resources
Initial
Investment
Costs
Results:
Operational Performance
ETOS
RAM-C Metrics:
Material Availability
Operational Availability
Ownership Costs
MAAF Simulation
Sustainment
Dials
Reliability
Maintainability
Support Concept
Number of Personnel
Phase / Sch Maint. Cycle
Range & Depth of Spares
Number & Type of Facilities
Component Reorder Time
Depot Throughput for Repairs
Range & Depth of Support Equipment
Reparable Equipment Turnaround Time
Sustainment Costs
$/FH or $/Yr
Cost
Knobs
Public/ Private Work Share
Supplier Work Share
Labor Rates
Overhead / Fee Structure
O&S Parametric Values
Sustainment
Dials
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

4. Agenda Tool Overview Scenario Baseline Results
Availability Enhancements & Cost Reduction Options
Availability Enhancements & Cost Reduction Results
Conclusions
Note: Notional Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability
and Cost Data Used To Illustrate the Methodology
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

5. Tool Overview: Model for Aircraft Availability Forecasting (MAAF)5

6. Model For Asset Availability Forecasting (MAAF)
An Object-oriented, Simulation Modeling Application Intended To Help Designers, Analysts And Planners Conduct Rapid Analyses Of A Variety Of Logistics Problems, Including:
Predicting Weapon System Availability Under Various Operational Scenarios
Allocating Logistics Resources Based On Mission Requirements
Impact Of Maintenance And Operational Policies On Aircraft Availability And Resources
Assessment Of R&M Improvements On Weapon System Availability And Logistics Resource Requirements
Sizing Units, Readiness Spares Packages (RSPs), Etc.
Analyzing The Impact Of Force Structure Changes
Impact of Primary Aircraft Inventory vs. Backup Aircraft Inventory
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

7. MAAF Object Oriented Framework
MESL*
Missions
Required Repair Resources
LOCATION
A/C 1
GS 1
EQUIPMENT
A location may possess
PLATFORMS
PEOPLE
FACILITIES
Spares SE
Operations
Maintenance
that include
Hangars
Ramps
Crew Chiefs
Avionics
Aircrews
MAAF Supports the Rapid Configuration of Scenarios to
Simultaneously Assess Mission and Support Requirements
* Minimum Essential Subsystem List
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

8. MAAF Modeling and Simulation Construct
Direct Support
NRE Costs
Quantity & Type of
Missions
Quantity & Type of Bases.
Quantity & Type of Platforms
Quantity & Type of Support Resources
NRE and Sustainment Costs
Cost
Data
Direct Support
Recurring Costs
Fleet Ops
(SGR, Sch Eff.)
CAPE (CAIG) O&S Costs
Aircraft Hvy Maint.
Operational Requirements
Availability (Mat. Avail, MC Rate)
Sch. Maint.
Scheduled
Maint (O/H)
Supply Support
Utilization
O&S Data Output (Excel)
LSA
(Eagle)
Task Analysis (Excel)
Model for Asset
Availability Forecasting
Manpower
Utilization
SE & Facilities
Utilization
Reliability Predictions
(Relex, Excel)
R&M Input (Excel)
Support System Definition
R&M (from Simulation)
R&M Output (Excel)
Spares Analysis (VMETRIC)
Spares / Consum. Input (Excel)
Repair / Supply Depots
Levels of Maint.
Facility Capability
Cost Data
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

9. MAAF Inputs And Outputs
Platform R&M Data
Flight/Mission Critical Elements, MTBF, MTTR, Repair Resources
Mission Data
Mission Type, Platform Type and Qty., Departure/Arrival Locations and Times, MESL column reference
Support System Resources Resident At Each Location Resources, Including:
Personnel (Aircrew, Ops & Maint.)
Spares & Consumables
Support Equipment (& MHE)
Facilities
Mission-based Tasks (e.g. Preflight, Post Flight, Refuel, Rearm)
Scheduled Maintenance Activities (e.g. phased or isochronal inspections, Time Change Items)
Support Costs (Direct and Parametric)
Reports
Summary Statistics
Experiment Run Parameters
Mission / Sortie Accomplishment
MC Rates / Materiel Availability
Departure Reliability
Time on Ground
Supply Support Metrics
NRE and Recurring Support Costs
Graphical Reports
MC Rates / Availability
Resource Utilization
Resource Exceptions
Logs
Detailed simulation processing results by aircraft or mission
Cost Data
SimViz
Visualization of running simulation
Limited ability to interact and add resources to locations
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

10. Typical Platform MESL – Repair Actions Data
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

11. Operational Location Resources
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

12. Aircrew Manpower Policies
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

13. Modeling of Both Retail and Wholesale Supply Support Activities
Organizational Level
Operating Location
Operating Location
Spares
Spares
Part
Request
Models Repairable & Consumable Items
Items Shared Between Locations Based On User Set Priorities
Repair Is A Closed Loop System
Part
Available
IAW
Ship Time
Supply/Repair Depot
On Hand Stock
Part
Available IAW
Repair Time
Part
Available IAW
Reorder Time
Unlimited Stock of Consumables
Component Repair
Depot Level
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

14. Modeling of the Supply System
Lateral Supplier
Key
Depot Repair
Unserviceable LRU
Unserviceable SRU
Request
LRU
Serviceable LRU
Serviceable SRU
Open / Closed Gate
Platform
Base
Supply
Depot Re-procure
I Level
Nesting
Allowed
Re-procurement
Request
MAAF Models Both the Wholesale And Retail Levels of Supply Support
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

15. Aircraft Mission Processing
Typical
Aircraft Mission:
Takeoff and Land
at Home Base
Complex Mission
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

16. Aircraft Missions Definition
Typical Mission
Complex Mission
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

17. Ground Station Mission Processing
Process Next Mission on the Event List at Scheduled
Select Ground
Station
Begin Mission
Task Requiring Support Resources
Ground Stations
Available N
Unit Failures?
Downing Failures?
Spare GS Avail?
Sched. Maint.
Req.? Y Y N
Abort
Mission Y
Perform
Scheduled Maint.
Perform Mission N N Y N
Unit Failures?
Continue
Mission
Repair Unit Y
Repair Ground
Station
Select Ground
Station
End Mission
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

18. Ground Station Mission Definition
Non-Stop Mission
Periodic Mission 18
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

19. UAV / ETOS Mission Processing
Select UAV
Pre-Flight
UAV
Begin Sortie
Task Requiring Support Resources
Order
Replacement
UAV
Unit Failures?
Downing Failures?
UAV
Available Y Y
Abort
Mission
Perform Ingress N N N
Sched. Maint.
Req.? Y
Continue
Mission
Perform
Scheduled Maint.
Unit Failures?
Downing Failures? N Y Y
On Station
Unit Failures? Y
Repair UAV N N
Continue
Mission
Schedule Replacement
UAV
Unit Failures?
Downing Failures?
If Possible, Replacement UAV Scheduled to Allow Seamless Gap in Surveillance Coverage Y Y
Perform Egress
Perform Egress N N
Continue
Mission
End Sortie
Return to Base
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

20. UAV Mission Definition
On Station
Information
Ingress/Egress
Information 20
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

21. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15
ETOS Definition
Source: Venn Diagram inspired by Chris Marchefsky of NAVAIR
Effective Time On Station (ETOS) is the percentage of planned calendar time that an aircraft is actually on station and effective
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

22. ETOS Calculation Technique
Post- flt
& Maint.
Pre-flt
Ingress
Egress
Asset 1 1 2
Coverage 4 5
Ready 1 2
Coverage 4 5
Asset 2 1 2
Coverage
Ready 4 5 1 2
Coverage
Asset 3
Ready 1 2
Cov. 4 5
Failure
Coverage
Coverage*
Cov. X
Total Time
* Coverage Requires:
Operational Aircraft
Operational Ground Station
Fully Manned Ground Station
T=0
Post-flt & Maintenance
Egress
Pre-flt 1
Ingress
Coverage* (3) 4 2 5
ETOS is Calculated In Accordance With NGC Patent No: US 7,436,295 B2 22
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

23. Platforms Mission Processing
Aircraft
Unmanned Systems / Effective Time on Station
Family of
Systems
Ground / Naval Equipment
UAV and Ground Station Platforms Create A Family Of Systems Model
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

24. Availability Calculation
Day 100
Day 200
Day 300
Day 400
MAAF Calculates Availability By Tail Number On A Minute by Minute / Day by Day Basis
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

25. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15
Aircraft Daily Status
Daily MC Rate
Aircraft Status
(In Heavy
Maintenance)
MAAF Calculates Availability By Tail Number On A Minute by Minute / Day by Day Basis
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

26. Output Example: Summary Page
Operational & Availability Performance
Maintenance And Supply Job Summary
Cost of Sustaining Performance
Operations & Support Costs
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

27. Output Example: Summary Page (Continued)
Operational & Availability Performance
Maintenance And Supply Job Summary
Non-Recurring Support Costs
Initial Investment Cost
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

28. Scenario 28

29. Scenario: Annual Operation of the fleet of Gawker Surveillance Aircraft
Gawker R&M attributes:
Mean Flight Hours Between Failure (MFHBF): 15.0 FH
Mean Flight Hours Between Removal (MFHBR): 21.3 FH
Mean Time To Repair (MTTR): Hrs
5 operating locations each with 4 aircraft
4 FOBs and 1 Training MOB
1 Squadron with 4 aircraft at each location
Daily flight schedule: Two 16 hour missions per day
Squadron manning: 135 personnel
Direct Aircrew: 16
Direct Maintenance Personnel: 37
Initial Spares per base
$69.2M; 499 Total Items
417 Line Items
870 Total Items
Note: Notional Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability
and Cost Data Used To Illustrate Our Methodology
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

30. Baseline Results 30

31. Schedule Effectiveness = 87.7%
Baseline Results
MC Rate: 77.82%
Schedule Effectiveness = 87.7%
For $6,935 / Flight Hour
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

32. Baseline Results: Availability
All Airbases
Single Airbase
Example
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

33. Baseline Results: O&S Cost
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15
Baseline Results: O&S Cost

34. Availability Enhancement And Cost Reduction Options34

35. Modeling and Simulation Trade Space
Number of Platforms (A/C, UAV, GS)
Number of Locations
Operational
Dials
Mission Schedule / Priority
Duty Day / Personnel Limitations
System Utilization
Support
Resources
Initial
Investment
Costs
Results:
Operational Performance
ETOS
RAM-C Metrics:
Material Availability
Operational Availability
Ownership Costs
MAAF Simulation
Sustainment
Dials
Reliability
Maintainability
Support Concept
Number of Personnel
Phase / Sch Maint. Cycle
Range & Depth of Spares
Number & Type of Facilities
Component Reorder Time
Depot Throughput for Repairs
Range & Depth of Support Equipment
Reparable Equipment Turnaround Time
Sustainment Costs
$/FH or $/Yr
Cost
Knobs
Public/ Private Work Share
Supplier Work Share
Labor Rates
Overhead / Fee Structure
O&S Parametric Values
Sustainment
Dials
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

36. MAAF Analysis Flow
Customer Specification / CONOPS
MC Rate, ETOS
“S” Curve
Inherent Weapon System Design
MAAF
Forensic Tools
Operational & Cost
Performance
Support System Design
O&S Cost, CPFH
“S” Curve
Ensures Affordable Initial Investment And Sustainment Costs
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

37. Examples of Forensic Reports
Forensic Reports Pinpoint Cost Drivers and Under Utilized Support Assets
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

38. Availability Enhancement & Cost Reduction Options
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15
Availability Enhancement & Cost Reduction Options
Reduce Quantity of Aircrew
16 to 8 Aircrew
Reduce Aircraft Quantity
4 to 3 for each of the FOBs
Reduce Annual Flight Hours
Mission Duration reduced from 16 to 12 hours
Implement Spares Cost Reduction (Reducing Repair Turnaround)
Implement Spares Cost Reduction Implement Module Repair for Repair Cost drivers

39. Availability Enhancement And Cost Reduction Results39

40. Option 1 Discussion – Aircrew Reduction
Baseline Scenario has 16 Aircrews per Base, For a Total of 80 Aircrews
Baseline Analysis shows the Aircrew Utilization is Low
On Average, Only 22% of the Aircrew is Being Used
Reduce Quantity of Aircrew by 50%
16 to 8 Aircrew at each Base
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

41. Option 1 Comparison – 16 to 8 Aircrews
Degradation in Schedule Effectiveness
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

42. Option 1 Comparison – 16 to 8 Aircrews Continued
Maximum Hours in 90 Day Period Exceed With 8 Crews – More Required
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

43. Option 1 Comparison – Choice 1 Add more Crews 16 to 10 Aircrews
2.8% Savings
The Same 87.7% of Scheduled Missions Launched -
Saves $9.8M O&S Per Year
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

44. Option 1 Comparison – Choice 2 Increase FHs Allowed in 90 Days
3.7% Savings
The Same 87.7 % of Scheduled Missions Launched -
Saves $13M O&S Per Year
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

45. Option 2 Discussion – Reduction of Aircraft
5 operating locations each with 4 aircraft
4 FOBs and 1 Training MOB
1 Squadron with 4 aircraft at each location
Daily flight schedule: Two 16 hour missions per day
Baseline Analysis shows that 1 AC is on the Flight Line Fully Mission Capable
Reduce Aircraft Quantity
4 AC to 3 AC for each of the FOBs
4 AC at the MOB
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

46. Option 2 Comparison – Reduction of Aircraft
2.6% Savings
4 Less Aircraft Procured
3.3% Less Missions Launched - Saves $9.1M O&S Per Year
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

47. Option 3 Discussion – Reduced Annual Flight Hours
5 operating locations each with 4 aircraft
4 FOBs and 1 Training MOB
1 Squadron with 4 aircraft at each location
Daily flight schedule:
Baseline : Two 16 hour missions per day
Option: Two 12 hour missions per day
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

48. Option 3 Comparison – Reduced Annual Flight Hours
14.4% Savings
4.5% Increase in Missions Launched
Saves $50M O&S Per Year
8 Aircrew Can Support This Reduced Flight Hour Program
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

49. Option 4 Discussion – 30 Day Repair Cycle
Implement Spares Cost Reduction (Reducing Repair Turnaround)
Increase Repair Costs By 25% to Reduce the Repair Cycle Time from 90 Days to 30 Days
Reduce Spares Quantity
15.1% Reduction in Initial Spares Investment
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

50. Option 4 Comparison – Reduced Repair Pipeline Time To 30 Days
$51.4M Savings
~$59
More per FH
2 More Missions Launched – 24 More Flight Hours/Year
$51.4M Reduction In Initial Spares
~$59 More Per FH for Repair
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

51. Approved for public release; NG15-1031, 5/26/15
Option 5 Discussion
Baseline Analysis Shows 2 High Drivers for Repair Costs
Implement Modular Repairs
Antenna Group, MTBF = 516, Repair Cost = $601,614
Antenna 1 Remove and Replace, MTBF = 1,548, Repair Cost = $50,000
Antenna 2 Remove and Replace, MTBF = 1,548, Repair Cost = $50,000
Antenna 3 Remove and Replace, MTBF = 1,548, Repair Cost = $50,000
Radar Signal Processor, MTBF = 376, Repair Cost = $179,744
RSP Interface Circuit Card, MTBF 10,000, Repair Cost = $5,000
Electronic Unit, MTBF = 2,500, Repair Cost = $20,000
Power Distribution Unit, MTBF = 8,100, Repair Cost = $15,000
Integrated Processor, MTBF = 3,200, Repair Cost = $50,000
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

52. Option 5 Comparison – Module Remove and Replace for Key Components
$73.9M Savings
19.2% Savings
~$1,317
Less per FH
49 More Missions Launched – 788 Less Flight Hours/Year
$73.9M Reduction In Initial Spares – $68M Savings in O&S per Year
~$1,417 Less Per FH for Repair
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

53. Option 1 to 5 Comparison – All Options Considered
$125.3M Savings
34.2% Savings
~$1,104
Less per FH
334 More Flight Hours – 4 Less Aircraft Procured
$125.3M Reduction In Initial Spares – $121.3M Savings in O&S per Year
~$1,104 Less Per FH for Repair
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

54. Conclusions 54

55. Conclusions – Gawker Scenario
Comprehensive Scenario allows Operational Performance and Costs Baseline to be established
Review of the Baseline Results highlighted areas for ripe for Affordability Initiatives
Manpower Reductions
Policy Changes
Utilization Reductions
Aircraft Procurement Reductions
Repair Pipeline Investment
Change In Level of Repair
Each Initiatives can be assessed individually or together
Potential Courses of Action Assessed Prior to Implementation
Assessments can be performed throughout the Weapon System Life Cycle
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

56. Conclusions - Continued
Using a tool like MAAF to model sustainment provides a closed-loop, simulation based assessment of:
Inherent R&M Characteristics
Operational Constraints
Logistics Footprint
Changes To Operations And Support Resources Can Be Fed Back Into The Model To Assess The Impact
Using this methodology allows relative comparison of costs associated with alternative operational and sustainment strategies
Affordability based Operational Analysis can be performed through out the Life Cycle
Affordability has been integrated into Logistics Simulation
to drive out Sustainment Should Cost
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15

57. Questions? 57

59. Gawker Parametric Cost Data
Return
Approved for public release; NG , 5/26/15