1. IMPACT OF CROPPED AREA AND YEAR ON PRODUCTION OF CHILLI, GINGER AND TURMERIC CROPS IN NORTH EAST REGION OF INDIA
Dr. Amod Sharma
Head
Department of Agricultural Economics
Nagaland University
School of Agricultural Sciences and Rural Development
Medziphema: Campus, District: Dimapur
Nagaland

2. ABSTRACT
In this paper an attempt has been made to estimate the effects of cropped area and year on production of chilli, ginger and turmeric crops in north-east region of India. To evaluate the impact of all crops; three regression equations for each of the crops have been fitted by the method of least squares. To examine the significance of the estimated regression equations, analysis of variance is carried out for each of the crops viz; chilli, ginger and turmeric separately.
Whereas, to access the impact of growth on area, production and productivity, statistically significantly were carried out and to work out the riskiness for the cultivation of major spices in chilli, ginger and turmeric crops in the north east region of India.
Key Words: Impact, chilli, ginger, turmeric, rainfall, cropped area.

5. Total geographical area of NER : 2.55 lakh km2
(8 per cent of total area)
Physiography
North Eastern Hill Areas : 65 per cent
Meghalaya Plateau Area : 13 per cent
Brahmaputra Valley : 22 per cent area

6. About 126 tribal communities inhabit the region.
Jhum system (practiced in seven states),
Bun system (in Meghalaya),
Zabo system (by Chakhesang tribe of Nagaland),
Panikheti system (by apatani tribe of AP)
Alder based system (by Angami tribe of Nagaland)
Large cardamom based agroforestry system (Sikkim)
Tilla system (in Tripura)

7. Net sown area in ’000 ha & in % Food grains production 2001-02 (’000t)
Table 1. Geographical area, population and food grain production in north east region
NEH States
Geographic area
(’000ha)
Population as on 2001
(lakhs)
Farm size
(ha)
Forest area as on 1999 (%)
Net sown area in ’000 ha & in %
Food grains production (’000t)
Arunachal Pradesh
8,374
10.91
3.7
93.64
116(3.0)
245
Manipur
2,233 89
2.2
27.23
140(6.3)
383
Meghalaya
2,243
23.06
1.8
41.86
240(10.7)
234
Mizoram
2,108
8.91
1.4
75.82
91( 4.3)
138
Nagaland
1,658
19.90
6.8
56.09
261(16.7)
312
Sikkim
710
5.50
2.1
36.20
95 (13.4)
100
Tripura
1,049
31.91
0.9
57.77
277(26.4)
530
NEH Total / Average
T=18,375
T=124
A=2.7
A=77.10
T=1220(7.0)
T=1942
All India
328,726
1,0270
1.5
19.39
14100(41.6%)
121600
Sources: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, DONER, Shillong ( )

8. Table 2. Area and Production of major spices in North East Region of India
State
Chilli
Ginger
Turmeric
Large Cardamom
Black pepper
Area
Prod.
Arunachal Pradesh
1.2
1.6
4.34
31.09
0.40
1.50
3.84
0.56
1.32 _
Assam
14.7
0.97
10.10
7.00
Manipur
8.8
5.3
5.9
9.7
Nagaland
9.6
7.60
6.69
0.6
3.59
1.46
0.15
3.7
2.6
Mizoram
2.8
3.3
20.50
0.4
3.60
Meghalaya
1.8
1.1
4.10
49.06
8.2
Sikkim
9.55
4.32
1.5
15.48
8.0
Tripura
2.0
4.90
6.41
9.15
1.3
Total
32.8
23.07
37.46
127.47
27.5
27.49
10.78
8.71
14.17
3.9
All India
81.31
113.1
86.16
317.8
163.0
552.3
11.65
12.10
216.5
79.1
Sources: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture ( )

9. (Sources: Adopted from Deka, B. C. 2008)
Table 3. Major agricultural crops were grown in the north east region of India
NE States
Crops
Assam
Tea, Aromatic rice, Glutinous rice, Ginger, Turmeric, Chillies, Assam lemon, Khasi lemon, Areca nut and Medicinal plants.
Arunachal Pradesh
Tea, Ginger, Turmeric, Rice, Apple, Citrus, Pineapple, Banana, Kiwi, Large cardamom, Potato, Cabbage and Cauliflower.
Manipur
Passion fruit, Citrus, Rice, Turmeric, Chillies, Mushroom and Ginger
Meghalaya
Ginger, Turmeric, Khasi lemon, Pineapple, Areca nut, Potato, Cabbage, Cauliflower, baby corn and medicinal plants.
Mizoram
Turmeric, ginger, Banana, Passion fruit, baby corn and Pineapple
Nagaland
Citrus, Turmeric, Orchids, Aromatic rice, Ginger, Banana and Pineapple
Sikkim
Ginger, Large cardamom, Sikkim Mandarin, Turmeric, Orchid, local chillies, aromatic rice, Mushroom and Baby corn
Tripura
Pineapple, Turmeric, Mushroom, Passion fruit and Rice.
(Sources: Adopted from Deka, B. C. 2008)

10. MATERIAL AND METHODS
Time series secondary data was collected for the area, production and productivity of chilli, ginger and turmeric from different Directorates of State Governments as well as from Basic Statistical Hand Book of North East Region, Directorate of Economics and Statistics at Shillong, Meghalaya for the state level data for the period of to A linear regression equation of production on area and year for major spices crops viz; chilli, ginger and turmeric was fitted to the data. The Multicollinearity was found to be significant between cropped area and time in year. Therefore, separate regression equations was fitted between production of chilli, ginger and turmeric with years to find out the effects of year on production independently approach was adopted.

11. Linear trend equation: Y = a + bx.
Accordingly, in the present study also Compound Growth Rates was computed for area, production and productivity of chilli, ginger and turmeric crops based on the Linear function for the periods. The compound growth rates was computed as follows:
Linear trend equation: Y = a + bx.
Where, x is the time variable, y is the variable for which growth rate is calculated and b is the regression co-efficient of Y on x. Now, Compound Growth percentage:
(CGR %) = (b-1) x 100
The significant of growth rates was tested by applying student ‘t’ test where t = g / SE (r), with (N-2) d. f. where r is the growth and N is the total number of years considered under study.
SE ( r ) = 100 b /   ( log r2) – ( log Y) 2 / N – (log b)2  x2 / (N-2) x2

12. Instability Index (I) = (I-R2) x CV2
To measure the magnitude of variability in area, production and productivity for the total period, the co-efficient of variation (%) was computed. Further the instability index was also calculated to examine the instability in area, production and productivity of major spice crops in the North East Region of India by using the following formula:
Instability Index (I) = (I-R2) x CV2
An attempt was also made to study the effects of area, productivity and their interaction towards increasing production by using y the following formula.
Data Base
The present study is based entirely on secondary sources. The secondary data regarding area, production and productivity of major spices like - chilli, ginger and turmeric crops were obtained. The study entails a temporal as well as spatial analysis of the growth of production, area and productivity of various spices grown in north east region of India among with the disposal of spices to the interstate as well as terminal markets.

13. Linear function Y = a + bx Quadratic function Y = a + bx + cx2
In the present study, an attempt has been made to compare the difference in growth of area and production of major spices crops. The time series data on area, production and productivity of major spices crops like - chilli, ginger and turmeric crops for the period to were obtained from various publications of Government of India.
Analytical Framework
To analyze the trend of area, production and productivity of chilli, ginger and turmeric the following different functional forms were selected.
Linear function Y = a + bx
Quadratic function Y = a + bx + cx2
Exponential function Y = a. bx
Where, Y = Area, production and productivity of spices
X = Time variable

14. ∆ P = Y0 ∆ A + A0 ∆Y + ∆A ∆Y Where as: ∆ A = An – A0 ∆Y = Yn - Y0
The functional form having the highest Co-efficient of Determination (R2) is selected for fitting the trend. Along with this, growth rates of area, production and productivity of the spices crop were computed.
∆ P = Y0 ∆ A + A0 ∆Y + ∆A ∆Y
Where as: ∆ A = An – A0
∆Y = Yn - Y0
∆ P = An - A0
Ao, Po and Yo representing the area, production and productivity in the base year and An, Pn and Yn the corresponding area, production and productivity in the current year. The first, second and third on the right side of above equation represent area, productivity and interaction effect, respectively.
The periods to was divided into two parts viz, (i) to (ii) to and contribution of area, productivity an their interaction to total

15. different production of the crop were worked out separately for each of the sub-periods and for the total period.
Whereas to work out the impact on production for major spices a regression equation were fitted.
Regression equations is: Y = A1 + 1 X1 + 2 X2 + u1 … (1)
Whereas: Y = Production of Chilli or Ginger or Turmeric in tonnes (t).
X1 = Grossed cropped area of chilli or Ginger or Turmeric in ha.
X2 = Year; A = Intercept & u = Random disturbance term.
1 and 2 are the partial regression coefficients of the respective explanatory variables. The functions were estimated by the method of ordinary least squares applied to the data. The Result was estimated from the regression equation (1) and finally complied in the Table 6 and Table 7.

16. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The main finding of the study were complied in different tables from table 4 to table 10.
As table 4 reveals that for the different functional forms viz; linear, quadratic and exponential coefficients of determination (R2) were computed. The R2 values of linear function for all three aspects, viz., area, production and productivity for all major spices crops were higher than quadratic and exponential functions except in some aspects in major spices crops. Hence, the linear functional form was selected for fitting trend of area, production and productivity of chilli, ginger and turmeric crops based on the fitted trend of production.
Table 5 reveals that value a and b in the linear functional forms for area, production and productivity were found to be positive and some cases were reported negative, values are significant except for some of the cases. This implies the acceleration of growth of area, production and productivity of the spices.

17. Table 4. R2 value of Linear, Quadratic & Exponential function for major spices crops of north east region of India ( to )
Crops
Aspects
Linear
Quadratic
Exponential
Chilli
Area
73.90
44.27
55.83
Production
62.18
41.46
53.56
Productivity
35.17
24.85
32.44
Ginger
81.58
55.96
78.86
78.81
47.64
69.94
12.91
2.36
4.68
Turmeric
58.75
36.24
49.38
91.15
53.45
81.29
87.16
51.91
79.03

18. Table 5. Results of the fitted trend for major spices (Linear function) of north east region of India ( to )
S.N.
Crops
Aspects to to to a b 1.
Chilli
Area
0.002
64.144
-0.001
Production
0.001
2.125
2.310
-9.533
Productivity
40.175
4.638
-7.515
24.529 2.
Ginger
57.614
-0.002
-3.268
0.013
5.567
0.021
-1.505
0.0001
23.75
2.789
3.820
-2.348
2.874 3.
Termeric
0.003
24.685
0.011
4.234
-6.941
30.475
4.450
2.382
18.966

19. The growth of area, production and productivity of chilli, ginger and turmeric were decreasing during the periods ( to ). However, value of a and b for area of chilli, ginger and turmeric and productivity for chilli, ginger and turmeric were negative reflecting the retardation of growth of area, production and productivity, respectively.
Table 6 reveals that on chilli crop has negative impact on area during the period of to , also it was found negative impact on the production of ginger crop during the same period.
Table 7 reveals that the assumption seemed to be positive, where significant compound growth rates were recorded for the growth of area, production and productivity of the crop. This assumption seemed recorded for the period from to

20. Variation and instability in Area, Production and Productivity:
Table 8 reveals that the Co-efficient of variation (%) of area, production and productivity of the spices were worked out for the period to It is revealed from the table that growing of chilli, ginger and turmeric were more riskiness as compared to other spices in the north east region as revealed by the higher coefficient of variation. The coefficients of variation (CV) of area, production and productivity of those spices were more than 70 per cent. The raising of chili, ginger and turmeric in the north east region is less riskiness, which has coefficients of variation of less than 45 per cent.
The results of the instability indices depicted that the instability indices for area, production and productivity for various spices in the north east region were negative and thereby indicating more riskiness.

21. Measurements of Effects:
Table 8 reveals that to determine how the relative contributions of area, productivity and their interaction were responsible for the increased spices production of the north east region during each of the period viz; to , to and the total period ( to ). The changes in production were partitioned separately in various effects. The Table revealed that the situation of major spices in the north east region seems to be good. The productions of major spices are increasing which is due to increase in area as well as interaction of area and productivity except for some spices crops. The interaction of area and production of chilli and ginger are decreasing as indicated by the negative values.
Although the interaction of area and productivity in spices crops were found decreasing but for the total period it was seen to be increasing (Shrama and Kalita, 2004).

22. As table 9 reveals that the co-efficient of multiple determinations (R2) for chilli with year was found to be , which significance was evaluated through analysis of variance and was found to be highly significant at 1 per cent level. In the partial regression co-efficient of X2 for the elasticities of production of chilli was and found to be significant at 5 per cent level of significance. The R2 for chilli with time was That mean only per cent of the variance in the production of chilli in north east region was explained by X2 which was significant at 1 per cent level of significance.
Whereas, the co-efficient of multiple determinations (R2) for ginger with year was found to be , which significance was evaluated through analysis of variance and was found to be highly significant at 1 per cent level. In case of partial regression co-efficient of X2 for the elasticities of production of ginger was and found to be significant at 5 per cent level of significance. The R2 for ginger with time was That mean only per cent of the variance in the production of

23. ginger in north east region was explained by X1 which was significant at 1 per cent level of significance.
Also, the co-efficient of multiple determinations (R2) for the turmeric crop was This reflects that only per cent of the total variation in the production of turmeric crop was explained by X1 (gross the cropped area) and X2 (year) for the elasticities of production of turmeric were positive and negative both, which were found to be non-significant. The partial regression coefficients of X1 and X2 for the elasticities of production of turmeric was positive significant at 1 per cent level of significance.
Table 10 reveals the ANNOVA value of regressions for major spices crops viz; chilli, ginger and turmeric crops. The ANOVA for multiple linear regressions was evaluated and coefficient of multiple determinations R2 was also found to be significant at 1 per cent level of significance on Chilli and ginger crops.
In case of turmeric crop, further study is required to find out an efficient function and factors which are responsible for the

24. crops in north east region of India
Table 6. C. G. R. (%) of Area, Production and Productivity of major spices
crops in north east region of India
S.N.
Crops
Aspects
CGR %
84-85to95-96
96-97to07-08
84-85to07-08 1.
Chilli
Area
1.83
-0.41
1.22*
Production
3.63
1.01
2.90*
Productivity
1.77
1.66** 2.
Ginger
3.58
3.39
5.54*
8.41
2.11
6.51*
4.66
-1.24
0.93* 3.
Turmeric
1.17
0.02
1.42*
5.81
1.36
5.24*
4.59
1.48
3.81*
Note: * Significant at 1 % probability level, ** Significant at 5 % probability level, NS - Not significant

25. major spices crops in north east region of India
Table 7. Co-efficient of variation (%) in area, production and productivity of
major spices crops in north east region of India
S.N.
Crops
Aspects to
96-97 to
84-85 to
CV (%)
Ins. Index 1.
Chilli
Area
6.80
3.03
9.69
Production
14.65
18.27
25.31
-39182
Productivity
8.90
22.21
-11565
20.95
-15002 2.
Ginger
14.05
19.04
-10902
40.51
30.22
20.69
44.82
17.28
16.67
17.12 3.
Termeric
0.45
-12.32
9.41
82.55
13.13
-13884
2.02
5.83
34.73
-93828
1.62
9.91
26.98

26. Differential production
Table 8. Effect of change in area, productivity and their interaction on differential
production of major spices crops of north east region of India
Crops
Aspects
Differential production
(∆ P)
Area effect
(Y0 ∆A)
Productivity effect
(A0 ∆Y)
Interaction
(∆A ∆Y)
Chilli
74000
1700
9900
Ginger
47100
29400
92700
Turmeric
10200
2600
14600

27. Regression Co-efficient of R2
Table 9. Production function of chilli, ginger & turmeric for north east region of India ( to )
S. No.
Crops
Constant
Regression Co-efficient of R2 X1 X2 1.
Chilli ** NS *
( )
( ) 2.
Ginger ** NS *
( )
( ) 3.
Turmeric NS NS **
( )
( )
Note: * Significant at 1 % probability level, ** Significant at 5 % probability level,
NS - Not significant, Chilli SE of estimate = , Ginger SE of estimate = and Turmeric SE of estimate =

28. Table 10. ANOVA for regressions
S. No.
Crops
Sources
D. F.
MSS
F-Ratio 1.
Chilli
Regression 1 *
Residual 22 2.
Ginger * 3.
Turmeric NS
(Figures in parenthesis are standard errors of respective regression co-efficient)
** Significant at 0.1 per cent, * Significant at 0.5 per cent, NS - Non Significant,
R2 - Coefficient of multiple determinations

29. CONSTRAINTS
Inadequate supply of quality of seed or planting material of improved varieties of chilli, ginger and turmeric spices crops.
Use of integrated nutrient management concept in major spices crops should be implemented.
Biotic factors limiting yields like rot in chilli, soft of ginger and taphrina in turmeric crops should be controlled.
Abiotic stresses like - drought, high humidity and high rainfall are the major factor to effect / influenced the production.

30. Inadequate trained human resources and other inputs.
Market fluctuation rate and lack of organised marketing system for spices in the north east region should be controlled.
Government support price and input supply of spices crops should be implemented.
Food chain for input and output marketing (concept of Big Bazaar etc.).
Inadequate and traditional method of post harvest technology for spices in the north east region.
Inadequate trained human resources and other inputs.
Lack of spices grower association in the north east region.

31. CONCLUSION
The above discussion highlighted the fact that the growth of area, production and productivity for all the major spices in the north east region were positive and statistically significant at 1 per cent and 5 per cent level of significance. The coefficient of variation for major spices were less than 45 per cent and thereby indicating the less riskiness for cultivation in the north east region of India. Further, the production and productivity of the crops were increasing during the study periods, which was due to the combine effect of area and productivity. Therefore, keeping the area as constant, the productivity can be further increased by taking appropriate production technologies.

32. Therefore, it may be concluded that the linear effects of area under major spices crops and study period contributes significantly to the variation in production of chilli, ginger and turmeric crops. Linear effects of cropped area and year has insignificant contribution in the total variation in chilli, ginger and turmeric crops in the north east region. In case of turmeric, further study is required to find out an efficient function and factors which are responsible for the production and productivity of turmeric in north east region of India. Finally, we may draw a conclusion that in light of the above results, there is an urgent need to bring more area under the major spices crops by extensive cultivation in the north east region of India.

33. THANK YOU