1. Gürkan Kumbaroğlu, Ilhan Or, Mine Işık
Analysis of the Turkish Energy Sector with the BUEMS ENERGY MODELING FRAMEWORK
– 19 June 2017, Singapore –
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu, Ilhan Or, Mine Işık

2. Overview
Impose a tax
Exercise a tax

3. Motivation

4. Framework
Top Down
Bottom Up

5. Demand technologies process the input energy sources to produce output demands.
Framework
Each energy conversion technologies configure or transform the energy sources e.g. change the form of the energy sources.
Supply technologies are responsible for supplying energy sources to the system without any input requirement.

6. Framework 773 Demand Technologies
5 Energy Demand Sectors; 73 Demand Devices

7. Energy Carriers Final Demand Sectors Demand Technologies
Wind
Uranium
Solar
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass
Electricity
Hydrogen
Refined
Liquids
Coal
Bio -
Gas
Synthesis
Nat. Gas
& CBM
Energy
Carriers
Heat
Final Demand Sectors
Demand
Technologies
Industrial
Ammonia
Aluminum
Cement
Paper
Steel
Other
2 Hydro Power
1 Nuclear Power
2 Wind Power
5 IGCC Power/CHP
20 Combustion/CHP
11 Poly
Generation
8 Liquefaction
2 Ethanol Production
1 Oil refining
2 Coal Wash & Coke
2 Solar Power
5 Gasifier/Digester
1 Geothermal Power
4 Hydrogen Production
2 Fuel Cell Power/CHP
2 Heat Plants
Primary Energy
Sources
Conversion & Process
Natural Gas
Oil
Service
Accomodation
Education
Health Care
Gross Sale
Retail Sale
Cooking
Space Heating&Cooling
Water Heating&Cooling
Lighting
Other Service
Residential
Space Heating&Cooliing
Refrigration
Industry
Transport
12 Passenger transport
8 Freight transport
6 Commercial air conditioning
2 Urban air conditioning
5 Urban cooking & water heat
7 Urban space heat
3 Lighting & Appliances
Marine Transport Technologies
High Temperature Heaters
Motor Technologies
Space Heaters
Air Conditioners
Water Heatiers
Cooking Oven
Hydro Power
Nuclear Power
Wind Power
IGCC /CHP
Combustion/CHP
Poly-Generation
Liquefaction
Ethanol Production
Oil Refining
Coal Wash & Coke
Solar Power
Gasifier/Digester
Geothermal Power
Hydrogen Production
Fuel Cell Power/CHP
Heat Plants
Road Transportion:
Vehicle, Bus, Truck
2. Air Transportation
3. Marine Transportation:
Passenger, Freight
4. Rail Transportation:
Low temperature Heaters
Lighting Appliances
Office Appliances
Residential Appliances
Road Vehicles
Rail Transport Technologies
Air Transport Technologies
Iron&Steel
Chemical
Paper&Pulp
Glass
Non-Ferrous Metal
Automobile
Food & beverage
Other Industry

8. BUEMS model structure Supply level Investment level Capacity level
Activity level

9. BUEMS model structure Supply level Investment level Capacity level
Activity level
Variable
Description
𝑠𝑢𝑝(𝑠, 𝑡)
Supply Level of Supply Technology 𝑠
𝑠𝑢𝑝(𝑠𝑖𝑚p, 𝑡)
Supply Level of Import Technology 𝑠𝑖𝑚p
𝑠𝑢𝑝(𝑠𝑚i𝑛, 𝑡)
Supply Level of Mining Technology 𝑠𝑚i𝑛
𝑠𝑢𝑝(𝑠𝑟𝑛w, 𝑡)
Supply Level of Renewable Technology 𝑠𝑟𝑛w
𝑠𝑢𝑝(𝑠𝑒𝑥p, 𝑡)
Supply Level to Export Technology 𝑠𝑒𝑥p

10. BUEMS model structure Supply level Investment level Capacity level
Activity level
Variable
Description
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑐, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Energy Conversion Technology 𝑐
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑐𝑒, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Electricity Generation Technology 𝑐𝑒
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑐h, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of LTH Generation Technology 𝑐h
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑐𝑝, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Process Technology 𝑐𝑝
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑑, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Demand Technology 𝑑
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑑𝑎gr, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Agriculture Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑎gr
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑑𝑟sd, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Residential Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑟sd
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑑csd, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Service Sector Demand Technology dcsd
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑑𝑖nd, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Industry Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑖nd
𝑐𝑎𝑝(𝑑𝑡rn, 𝑡)
Capacity Level of Transport Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑡rn

11. BUEMS model structure Supply level Investment level Capacity level
Activity level
Variable
Description
𝑎𝑐𝑡(𝑐, 𝑡)
Activity Level of Energy Conversion Technology 𝑐
𝑎𝑐𝑡(𝑐𝑒, 𝑡)
Activity Level of Electricity Generation Technology 𝑐𝑒
𝑎𝑐𝑡(𝑐h, 𝑡)
Activity Level of LTH Generation Technology
𝑎𝑐𝑡(𝑐𝑝, 𝑡)
𝑐h Activity Level of Process Technology 𝑐𝑝

12. BUEMS model structure Supply level Investment level Capacity level
Activity level
Variable
Description
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑐, 𝑡)
Investment level of Energy Conversion Technology c
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑐𝑒lc, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Electricity Generation Technology celc
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑐h, 𝑡)
Investment Level of LTH Generation Technology 𝑐h
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑐𝑝, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Process Technology 𝑐𝑝
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑑, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Demand Technology 𝑑
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑑𝑎gr, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Agriculture Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑎gr
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑑𝑟sd, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Residential Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑟sd
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑑csd, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Service Sector Demand Technology 𝑑csd
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑑𝑖nd, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Industry Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑖nd
𝑖𝑛𝑣(𝑑𝑡rn, 𝑡)
Investment Level of Transport Sector Demand Technology 𝑑𝑡rn

13. BUEMS model structure
Objective function : Min. [discounted total system cost]
System constraints : energy balance, demands, electrical system
Policy constraints : emission caps, technology portfolio standards, taxes and subsidies
Price PE QE
Quantity
Equilibrium for an Energy Service Demand in MARKAL-TR

14. BUEMS model structure
Objective Function

15. Data Collection Kick-off Meetings Public Institutions
Ministry of Energy & Nat. Resources
Ministry of Environment
Ministry of Public Works & Settlement
Energy Market Regulatory Authority
Statistical Institute of Turkey
NGO & Private Sector Ankara
Chemical Manufacturers Association
Paper Manufacturers Association
Cement Manufacturers Association
Goodyear Inc.
Ege Fertilizer Inc.
NGO & Private Sector Istanbul
- Chemical Manufacturers Association
Association of Cogeneration Companies
Steel Manufacturers Association
TÜPRAŞ Inc.
ŞİŞECAM Inc.
Scientific & Technical Research Council / Coordination

16. Ministry TUBITAK Boğaziçi University Public Institutions NGOs
Ministry of Energy & Nat. Resources
Ministry of Environment
Ministry of Public Works & Settlement
Ministry of Transport
Ministry of Education
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Health
Ministry of Agriculture
Ministry of Culture & Tourism
Energy Market Regulatory Authority
Statistical Institute of Turkey
Hydraulic Works
Electr. Gen. Co.
Boğaziçi University
Ministry
Dir. of Highways
NGOs
Chemical Manufacturers Association
Paper Manufacturers Association
Contractors Association
Cement Manufacturers Association
Cogen Association
Private Sector Organizations
Tire Kutsan AŞ
PETKİM AŞ
ŞİŞECAM AŞ
ISDEMIR AŞ

17. Model Validation
Total Primary Energy
Total Cost

18. Model Results

19. AGR

20. AGR
IND

21. Emissions as CO2 equivalent for the year 2032 is expected to be 150
Emissions as CO2 equivalent for the year 2032 is expected to be 150.5Mton and hits 253Mton by 2052
AGR
IND

22. Emissions as CO2 equivalent for the year 2032 are expected to be 150
Emissions as CO2 equivalent for the year 2032 are expected to be 150.5Mton and hit 253Mton by 2052
AGR
IND
2012

23. The share of natural gas consumption increases linearly through the period 2012–2052, reaching 34 per cent by 2052.
Coal consumption declines, from 26 per cent in 2012 to 21 per cent in 2052
2052
IND
2012

24. The share of diesel consumption diminishes over time
LPG consumption ends by 2037
From 2037 onwards usage of ethanol increases rapidly, peaking in year 2052
2052
TRANSPORT SECTOR

25. Total energy consumption in 2012 = 1386PJ
Natural gas consumption maintains its 30 per cent share in primary energy consumption through the period 2027–2052
The share of electricity consumption increases steadily and hits by 2052
2052
RESIDENTIAL & SERVICE SECTOR

26. POWER SECTOR
The share of coal consumption increases linearly through the period 2012–2052, reaching 74 per cent by 2052.
No “NUCLEAR”!
The share of natural gas consumption as a primary energy resource declines throughout the whole timespan, but still manages to stand at 20 per cent by 2052
İN 2012 coal %39 nga %44 hyd %11
In 2052 coal %74
Nga % 20

27. Scenario Analysis CARBON TAX EMISSION BOUND
The purpose of the emission bound and carbon tax is to promote the use of clean technology and fuel options and to reduce the use of fossil fuels and the negative exteriority caused by it.
CARBON TAX
EMISSION BOUND
Nomenclature
Scenario Definition
CO2_10_BM
BUEMS model $10 emission tax scenario result
CO2_20_BM
BUEMS model $20 emission tax scenario result
CO2_30_BM
BUEMS model $30 emission tax scenario result
CO2_50_BM
BUEMS model $50 emission tax scenario result
Nomenclature
Scenario Definition
BAU_10_BM
BUEMS model 10% emission bound scenario result
BAU_20_BM
BUEMS model 20% emission bound scenario result
BAU_25_BM
BUEMS model 25% emission bound scenario result

28. Scenario Analysis
Contribution of sectors on emission mitigation (%)

29. Scenario Analysis
Fuel consumptions
under BAU_BM and CO2_50_BM

30. Scenario Analysis

31. Scenario Analysis
MACC for power sector

32. Scenario Analysis
MACC for industry sector

33. Scenario Analysis
MACC for residential & commercial sector

34. Scenario Analysis
MACC for transport sector

35. Ongoing Research Development of Sectoral Forecasting Models
Subsectoral projections
Energy intensities
Domestic production levels
Export levels
Simulation / econometric estimates
BU-GAS
BU-ELE
Integration of a Macroeconomic Module
Economic parameters
Substitution elasticities
Value shares
TIMES-MACRO
BUEMS-MACRO Model