1. Economics of Global Food Demand and Land Use Ron Sands Birgit Meade USDA Economic Research Service 16th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Arlington, Virginia January 21, 2016
The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA

2. Overview Drivers of agricultural demand and supply
Population growth
Growth in per capita income
Agricultural productivity growth
Climate change
Demand for bioenergy
Two ways to look at change
Over time (e.g. the present through 2050)
At a point in time (e.g. comparing a reference scenario to a climate change scenario in 2050)

3. Combinations in green are from ISI-MIP project published in Nelson et al. (2014). The current study expands the number of RCP x SSP combinations.
Three climate models: HadGEM (UK), IPSL (?), MIROC (Japan)
Muhammad, Andrew, James L. Seale, Jr., Birgit Meade, and Anita Regmi. International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns:
An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data. TB U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Econ. Res. Serv. March 2011.

4. The climate modeling chain: From biophysical to socioeconomic
D Productivity

5. Economic variables Exogenous yield shocks Expressed as either:
Code
Variable
Comments
YEXO
Exogenous yield shocks
 Expressed as either:
Percent change over time, from 2005 through 2050, also considering changes in population and income, or
Percent change at a point in time (2050), relative to reference scenario
YTOT
Realized yield after management adaptation
AREA
Agricultural area in production
PROD
Total production
CONS
Total consumption
EXPO
Exports
IMPO
Imports
PRICE
Price

6. Percent change in global economic variables from 2005 to 2050
Pooled results for five commodities (rice, wheat, coarse grains, oil seeds, sugar) from five economic models (n = 25), aggregated across 13 world regions. The boxes and whiskers depict 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles.

7. challenges for mitigation challenges for adaptation
Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
SSP 5
(mitigation challenges dominate)
Conventional Development
SSP 3
(high challenges)
Fragmentation
challenges for mitigation
Socio-economic
SSP 2
(intermediate challenges)
Middle of the Road
SSP 1
(low challenges)
Sustainability
SSP 4
(adaptation challenges dominate)
Inequality
Socio-economic
challenges for adaptation
Source: O’Neill, B.C., E. Kriegler, K. Riahi, K. Ebi, S. Hallegatte, T.R. Carter, R. Mathur, D.P. van Vuuren. February “A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: The Concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways,” Special Issue on “A Framework for the Development of New Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Research,” Climatic Change 122(3):

8. Economic Responses to a Decline in Agricultural Productivity
Due to Climate Change
The black diamond is the average (mean) percent change with climate change compared to no climate change in year 2050; the height of a column is the range across climate models, crop models, and economic models. Results are a world average across major field crops: wheat, rice, coarse grains, and oil seeds.
Source: Nelson et al. (2014) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111(9):

9. References
Muhammad, Andrew, James L. Seale, Jr., Birgit Meade, and Anita Regmi. International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data. TB U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Econ. Res. Serv. March 2011.
Special issue of Agricultural Economics on AgMIP global economic scenarios (January 2014)
Nelson, G.C., H. Valin, R.D. Sands, P. Havlik, H. Ahammad, D. Deryng, J. Elliott, S. Fujimori, T. Hasegawa, E. Heyhoe, P. Kyle, M. von Lampe, H. Lotze-Campen, D. Mason d’Croz, H. van Meijl, D. van der Mensbrugghe, C. Müller, A. Popp, R. Robertson, S. Robinson, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, A. Tabeau, and D. Willenbockel, 4 March 2014, “Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (special feature) 111(9):
Sands, R.D., H. Förster, C.A. Jones and K. Schumacher, 2014, “Bio-electricity and Land Use in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM),” Climatic Change (special issue) 123(3-4):
Sands, Ronald D., Carol A. Jones, and Elizabeth Marshall. Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply, ERR-174, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, September 2014.
Wiebe, K., H. Lotze-Campen, R.D. Sands, A. Tabeau, D. van der Mensbrugghe, A. Biewald, B. Bodirsky, S. Islam, A. Kavallari, D. Mason-D'Croz; C. Mueller, A. Popp, R. Robertson, S. Robinson, H. van Meijl and D. Willenbockel, 2015, “Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios,” Environmental Research Letters