1. CPUC Potentials, Goals and Targets (PGT) Study Update
Presentation to the Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) of Preliminary Results
March 18, 2013
Navigant Reference:

2. Industrial Methodology
Agenda
10:00
Industrial Methodology
10:45
Mining & Street Lighting Methodology and Results
11:30
Review of Stakeholder Comments

3. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
Navigant used an energy efficiency supply curve approach to estimate energy savings potential for the industrial sector.
This is consistent with other recent industrial potential studies.
McKinsey & Company, Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy, (2009)
Northwest Power Conservation Council (NWPCC), 6th Power Plan, (2008)
LBNL, Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Cement Sector, (2010)
Navigant developed separate supply curves for each end use in each industry (e.g., machine drives in food processing).
The supply curves were informed primarily by the DOE’s Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC) database.1
For the largest energy-consuming industries/end uses, Navigant used additional data resources.
1 Industrial Assessment Centers Database. Accessed at

4. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
IAC Database
Developed and maintained by research institutions across the U.S
Standardized assessment of 16,000 individual industrial sites and counting
118,000 energy efficiency recommendations
Categorized by end use and measure type
Recommendations include energy savings and cost estimates
For each sub-sector, end-use, and measure type (O&M and equipment), Navigant compiled all relevant data points in the IAC database, and ordered them from least to highest cost ($/kWh or $/therm) to create energy efficiency supply curves.

5. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
Navigant constructed supply curves for the following industrial sub-sectors and end uses.
Industrial Segment
Segment NAICS Code(s)
Petroleum
324
Food
311x, 312
Electronics
334x, 335
Stone-Glass-Clay
327x
Chemicals
325
Plastics
326
Fabricated Metals
332
Primary Metals
331
Industrial Machinery
333
Transportation Equipment
336
Paper
322x
Printing & Publishing
323, 511, 516
Textiles
313, 314, 315, 316
Lumber & Furniture
337, 321, 1133
All Other Industrial
339
End Use
Fuel Type(s)
Facility Lighting
Electric
Process Cooling and Refrigeration
Machine Drive
Conventional Boiler Use
Gas
Process Heating
Gas, Electric
Facility HVAC

6. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
Food segment, lighting equipment electric efficiency supply curve
Each data point represents one measure recommendation from the IAC database.

7. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
Navigant condensed supply curves into three savings levels for representation in the PGT model.
Level 1 Savings
Level 2 Savings
Level 3 Savings

8. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
EE Supply Curves for Fabricated Metals Segment (NAICS 332)
Lighting
HVAC (elec)
O&M
Equip

9. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
EE Supply Curves for Fabricated Metals Segment (NAICS 332)
Machine Drive (elec)
HVAC (gas)
O&M
Equip

10. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
EE Supply Curves for Fabricated Metals Segment (NAICS 332)
Process Heat (gas)
Conventional Boiler (gas)
O&M
Equip

11. Industrial Sector Modeling Approach
For large, energy-intensive industries, Navigant used existing supply curve data from the NWPCC and LBNL.
Food, Process Cooling and Refrigeration
Accounts for over 5% of all California IOU industrial electric consumption
Utilized existing Food sector supply curve measures from the NWPCC.1
Cement, Process Heat
5% of all industrial gas consumption
Used data from an LBNL supply curve paper for the cement industry.2
Petroleum Refining, Process Heat
30% of all industrial gas consumption
Used energy savings and cost assumptions from an LBNL petroleum refinery study to estimate an EE supply curve.3
1 Northwest Power and Conservation Council. Northwest Industrial Supply Curve: 6th Power Plan, (2008)
2 LBNL. Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Cement Sector, (2010)
3 LBNL. Energy Efficiency Improvement and Cost Saving Opportunities for Petroleum Refineries, (2005)

12. Industrial Sector Preliminary Results
Preliminary Industrial Sector Modeling Results

13. Industrial Sector Preliminary Results
Preliminary Industrial Sector Modeling Results (continued)

14. Industrial Sector Preliminary Results
Preliminary Industrial Sector Modeling Results (continued)

15. Industrial Methodology
Agenda
10:00
Industrial Methodology
10:45
Mining & Street Lighting Methodology and Results
11:30
Review of Stakeholder Comments

16. Street Lighting Sector Inputs Approach
Statewide Electric Consumption by Sub-Sector
Street Lighting Sector: 0.59% of total electric consumption (ECDMS data)
Majority of consumption: Streets sub-sector
Other sub-sectors: Signs (highway signage illumination) and Traffic Lights (signals)
Navigant used IOU-supplied street lighting inventories.
Widget-based approach focusing on specific measures.

17. Street Lighting Sector Inputs Approach
Streets Sub-Sector: Highway and Road Lighting
Data
IOU inventories; LS-1 and LS-2 rate schedules
Wattages, lumens, technology, monthly kWh, runtime hours
Secondary sources
Costs, lifetimes, etc.
Statewide Lamp Technology Distribution for Streets Sub-Sector

18. Street Lighting Sector Inputs Approach
Streets Sub-Sector: Highway and Road Lighting
Measures
Baseline
Inventory weighted average baseline (HPS, LPS, MH, MV, incandescent)
Efficient
LED and induction lamps: drawn from IOU inventories
Advanced controls: Activity sensing, network connections for outage monitoring, and remote controlling (pilot programs in CA)
LEDs and advanced controls are emerging technologies
Baseline Description
Measure Description
Existing HPS, LPS, MH, MV, incandescents street lights (weighted by lamp count)
Baseline street lights with advanced controls
LED street lights
LED street lights with advanced controls
Induction street lights
Induction street lights with advanced controls

19. Street Lighting Sector Inputs Approach
Signs Sub-Sector: Highway Sign Illumination
Data and Measures
Secondary sources; QFER consumption data; supported by IOU inventories
IOU data on saturations of LEDs/induction lamps informed Signs saturations
LEDs are emerging technology
Baseline Description
Measure Description
Mercury vapor street sign lights
LED street sign lights
Induction street sign lights

20. Street Lighting Sector Inputs Approach
Traffic Lights Sub-Sector: Signal Lighting
Data and Measures
Secondary sources; QFER consumption data
Analyzed at lamp level (i.e., individual red, yellow, green, etc.)
Title 24/Federal standards updated wattage maximums in 2006
Traffic Lights are the only Street Light technology regulated by Codes and Standards
Effectively require LEDs
Confirmed with IOUs that all inventories are LED (assuming all standard LED)
Advanced LEDs are emerging technology
Baseline Description
Measure Description
Standard/baseline LED traffic lights
Advanced LED traffic lights

21. Street Lighting Sector Inputs Approach
MICS Input Summary Highlights for all IOUs, excluding SCG
Streets
Category
Measure Description
Average Density
Annual Consumption (kWh)
Peak Demand (kW)
Full Installation Cost ($/fixture)
Baseline
Existing HPS, LPS, MH, MV, incandescents street lights (weighted by lamp count)
95.8%
561
$268
Measure
Baseline street lights with advanced controls 0%
400
$442
LED street lights
1.4%
265
$713
LED street lights with advanced controls
189
$924
Induction street lights
2.8%
330
$471
Induction street lights with advanced controls
235
$682
Signs
Category
Measure Description
Average Density
Annual Consumption (kWh)
Peak Demand (kW)
Full Installation Cost ($/fixture)
Baseline
Mercury vapor street sign lights
94.7%
992
$133
Measure
LED street sign lights
1.4%
359
$424
Induction street sign lights
3.8%
403
$285
Traffic Lights
Category
Measure Description
Average Density
Annual Consumption (kWh)
Peak Demand (kW)
Full Installation Cost ($/fixture)
Baseline
Standard LED traffic light
100% 36
0.004
$149.10
Measure
Advanced LED traffic light
Captured by emerging technology analysis

22. Street Lighting Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Street Lighting, Electric, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (GWh)
Year
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Market Potential
2012
855.4
20.0
2013
24.3
2014
29.1
2015
34.4
2016
40.2
2017
46.7
2018
53.8
2019
61.6
2020
70.2
2021
79.5
2022
89.7
2023
100.6
2024
112.5

23. Street Lighting Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Street Lighting, Electric, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (GWh); as a percent of 2011 QFER consumption data (1,093 GWh)
Year
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Market Potential
2012
78% 2%
2013
2014 3%
2015
2016 4%
2017
2018 5%
2019 6%
2020
2021 7%
2022 8%
2023 9%
2024
10%

24. Street Lighting Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Street Lighting, Electric, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (GWh)

25. Mining and Construction Sector Inputs Approach
Statewide Electric Consumption by Sub-Sector
Mining and Construction Sector:
2.3 percent of total electric consumption (ECDMS data)
2.2 percent of total natural gas consumption (ECDMS data)
Widget-based approach focusing on significant Oil and Gas Extraction measures.
Analysis accounts for 65 percent of total Mining and Construction Sector electricity and natural gas.
Navigant used equipment inventory data from the California Department of Conservation 2009 Annual Report of the State Oil and Gas Supervisor.1
Statewide Natural Gas Consumption by Sub-Sector
1: ftp://ftp.consrv.ca.gov/pub/oil/annual_reports/2009/PR06_Annual_2009.pdf

26. Mining and Construction Sector Inputs Approach
Oil and Gas Extraction Sub-Sector
Conservation Report Data1:
Well counts: approximately 50,300 production wells
Stripper and regular wells
Oil (and gas) production levels: 219MM barrels of oil
Injection wells: approximately 22,400
Injection volumes:
Water: 1.80BB barrels
Steam: 498MM barrels
Energy consumption distribution
Oil and Gas Extraction
PG&E
SCE
SDG&E
SCG
Electricity
57%
43% 0%
Natural gas
22%
78%
Navigant used the Conservation Report and ECDMS data to estimate no oil and gas extraction activity in SDG&E territory
1: ftp://ftp.consrv.ca.gov/pub/oil/annual_reports/2009/PR06_Annual_2009.pdf

27. Mining and Construction Sector Inputs Approach
Navigant developed major end-uses for the Oil and Gas Extraction sub-sector and mapped consumption to each IOU.
Major end-uses developed for MICS account for 65 percent of total energy consumption:
Major End-Use
Description
Baseline Technologies
Efficient Technologies
Portion of Sector Consumption
Electricity
Natural Gas
Stripper Wells
Electric motor driven low volume producing wells
Oversized, low efficiency motors
Resized motors, efficient motors, pump off controls, and VFDs 5% 0%
Regular Wells
Electric motor driven regular volume producing wells
38%
Injection Wells
Electric motor driven pumps for steam/water injection wells that support production
Low efficiency motors
Efficient motors and VFDs
22%
Boilers
Natural gas process boilers that produce steam for injection wells
Low efficiency boilers
Efficient boilers, controls, other improvements and tune-ups
65%

28. Mining and Construction Sector Inputs Approach
Navigant developed measures by blending the various strategies used to improve energy consumption within the sub-sector.
Blends reflect the average impacts of the combinations included
Stripper and Regular Pumps
Number
Technology or Improvement 1
Resize motors (install optimal horsepower) 2
Install efficient motors 3
Install pump-off controls (POC) 4
Install VFDs
Blended Tech/Improvement
Measure Name
1 and/or 2
Motor replacement
3 and/or 4
Motor controls
AND
Motor replacement and controls
Injection Pumps
Blended Tech/Improvement
Measure Name 1
Efficient motor 2
VFD
1 and 2
Efficient motor and VFD
Number
Technology or Improvement 1
Install efficient motor 2
Install VFD
Boilers
Number
Technology or Improvement 1
Efficient steam boiler
2, 3, 4…
Parallel positioning, oxygen feedback controls, economizer retrofits, air preheating, pipe insulation, blowdown heat recovery, etc.
Blended Tech/Improvement
Measure Name 1
Efficient steam boiler
2, 3, 4…
Boiler controls and improvements

29. Mining and Construction Sector Inputs Approach
MICS Input Summary Highlights for all IOUs, excluding SDG&E
Navigant reviewed equipment and operational characteristics with Global Energy Partners, expert implementation staff.
Stripper Wells
Category
Measure Description
Average Density
Average Motor Size (HP)
Consumption (kWh)
Peak Demand (kW)
Full Installation Cost ($/well)
Baseline
Standard motor
92.1% 5
6,238
0.71
$5,484
Measure
Motor replacement
2.7%
5 (3 if resized)
3,797
0.43
$4,917*
Motor controls
5.1%
4,316
0.49
$6,362
Motor replacement and controls
0.1%
2,627
0.30
$11,279
*Lower motor cost reflects smaller, resized motor
Regular Wells
Category
Measure Description
Average Density
Average Motor Size (HP)
Consumption (kWh)
Peak Demand (kW)
Full Installation Cost ($/well)
Baseline
Standard motor
69.9% 40
83,172
9.49
$13,935
Measure
Motor replacement
13.0%
40 (20 if resized)
50,622
5.78
$11,667*
Motor controls
15.1%
57,545
6.57
$8,065
Motor replacement and controls
2.1%
35,024
4.00
$19,731
*Lower motor cost reflects smaller, resized motor

30. Mining and Construction Sector Inputs Approach
MICS Input Summary Highlights for all IOUs, excluding SDG&E, continued
Navigant reviewed equipment and operational characteristics with Global Energy Partners, expert implementation staff.
Injection Pumps
Category
Measure Description
Average Density
Average Motor Size (HP)
Consumption (kWh)
Peak Demand (kW)
Full Installation Cost ($/pump)
Baseline
Standard motor
84.1%
738
5,074,309
579.3
$126,723
Measure
Efficient motor
12.5%
5,022,354
573.3
$142,927
VFD
3.0%
3,805,732
434.4
$29,100
Efficient motor and VFD
0.5%
3,753,776
428.5
$172,027
Boilers
Category
Measure Description
Average Density
Average Boiler Size (kBtu/hr)
Consumption (therms)
Full Installation Cost ($/boiler)
Baseline
Standard steam boiler
80.0%
6,250
556,055
$121,085
Measure
Efficient steam boiler
20.0%*
494,271
$177,211
Boiler controls and improvements
455,568
$58,975
*These measures do not compete.

31. Mining and Construction Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Oil and Gas Extraction, Electric, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (GWh)
Year
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Cumulative Market Potential
2012
849.9
774.1
214.2
2013
850.0
774.2
262.2
2014
308.6
2015
351.8
2016
389.3
2017
850.1
774.3
419.9
2018
443.7
2019
462.0
2020
475.8
2021
850.2
774.4
486.2
2022
495.4
2023
503.6
2024
510.8

32. Mining and Construction Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Oil and Gas Extraction, Electric, all IOUs
Cumulative Market Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (GWh) as a percent of 2011 QFER consumption data (3,161 GWh)
Year
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Market Potential
2012
27%
24% 7%
2013 8%
2014
10%
2015
11%
2016
12%
2017
13%
2018
14%
2019
15%
2020
2021
2022
16%
2023
2024

33. Mining and Construction Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Oil and Gas Extraction, Electric, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2010 – 2024) (GWh)

34. Mining and Construction Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Oil and Gas Extraction, Natural Gas, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (Million Therms)
Year
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Cumulative Market Potential
2012
135.9
54.0
2013
136.5
56.7
2014
137.0
59.1
2015
137.6
61.4
2016
138.1
63.6
2017
138.7
65.8
2018
139.2
67.9
2019
139.7
69.9
2020
140.2
71.9
2021
140.7
73.8
2022
141.2
75.7
2023
141.7
77.5
2024
142.2
79.2

35. Mining and Construction Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Oil and Gas Extraction, Natural Gas, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (Million Therms) as a percent of 2011 QFER consumption data (192 Million Therms)
Year
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Cumulative Market Potential
2012
71%
28%
2013
30%
2014
31%
2015
72%
32%
2016
33%
2017
34%
2018
73%
35%
2019
36%
2020
37%
2021
38%
2022
74%
39%
2023
40%
2024
41%

36. Mining and Construction Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Oil and Gas Extraction, Natural Gas, all IOUs
Energy Savings Potential (2012 – 2024) (Million Therms)

37. Street Lighting and Mining and Construction Sector Results
Preliminary Potential Model Results: Alternative View of Market Potential
Street Lighting and Mining and Construction Incremental Market Potential (Electric (GWh), all IOUs, )

38. Industrial Methodology
Agenda
10:00
Industrial Methodology
10:45
Mining & Street Lighting Methodology and Results
11:30
Review of Stakeholder Comments

39. Floyd Keneipp, Director in Charge
Managing Director
Walnut Creek, CA
(925)
Jane Pater Salmon, Project Manager
Associate Director
Boulder, CO
(303)
Karin Corfee, Financing
San Francisco, CA
(415)
Brad Rogers, Lead Modeler
Managing Consultant
(303)
Amul Sathe, ET, C&S, SP
(415)
Matt O’Hare, AIMS
Managing Consultant
Charlottesville, VA
(202)
Surya Swamy, Analytica SME
Walnut Creek, CA
(925)
Please copy all comments or questions to
Sam Piell, Workflow Coordinator
Senior Consultant
(925)