1. Local Elections in England, Scotland and Wales 2017
PSA Media Briefing - 25 April 2017
Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University)
John Curtice (University of Strathclyde)
Roger Scully (Cardiff University)
Chair: Professor Angelia Wilson (University of Manchester)
Chair of the Political Studies Association
#PSAMedia

2. Local Elections - England
Professor Colin Rallings Professor Michael Thrasher
The Elections Centre
Plymouth University

3. By-election model: Jan 2015 – April 2017
Labour overall track is downwards
Conservative track rising
Liberal Democrats – re-establishing a local govt. presence
UKIP support declining?

4. Party contestation in by-elections since 2009
Erosion of Lib Dem local base shown in reduced by-election contestation but now growing
UKIP experienced a dramatic rise that might be reducing
Green contestation growing

5. Poll of polls: January 2015 – April 2017
Polling data kindly supplied by Professor Will Jennings, University of Southampton. Weighted moving quarterly averages.

6. Conservative support in by-elections & polls

7. Labour support in by-elections & polls

8. Lib Dem support in by-elections & polls

9. UKIP support in by-elections & polls

10. Prospects for 2017

11. Political control in councils up in 2017
Lab LD
NOC
County councils 15 1 - 11
Unitary councils 2 3
Doncaster
Total 17 14

12. * allowing for boundary changes but not by-elections
Seats up in 2017*
Con
Lab LD
Green
UKIP
Ind/Oth
County councils
927
375
245 19
134 87
Unitary councils
177
149 96 1 9
Doncaster 8 41 - 2 4
Total
1,112
565
341 20
145
187
* allowing for boundary changes but not by-elections

13. National Equivalent Vote ‘forecast’ 2017
35 (43)
29 (25)
21 (11)
8 (11)
Figures in brackets are polling averages for April 2017

14. Change on 2013 +9 - +8 -14 -3 % 26 29 13 22 10 35 21 8 7 Con Lab LD
UKIP
Ind/Oth %
2013 National Equivalent Vote 26 29 13 22 10
2017 by-election model ‘forecast’ 35 21 8 7
Change +9 - +8
-14 -3

15. Previous results (27 comparable counties only)
Con
Lab LD
UKIP
Ind/Oth
2005
1007
447
360 - 43
2009
1251
148
346 8 95
2013
927
375
245
134
106

16. Possible 2017 seat changes (England)
Con
Lab LD
UKIP
+115
-75
+85
-105

17. Possible council change 2017
Cornwall
LD ex NOC
Derbyshire
NOC ex Lab
Lancashire
Lab ex NOC
Norfolk
Con ex NOC
Somerset
NOC ex Con

18. ‘Metro-mayors’ elections
Inaugural cycle
Elected using Supplementary Vote
6 areas - Cambridgeshire and Peterborough; Greater Manchester; Liverpool City Region; Tees Valley; West Midlands; West of England
+ directly ‘re-elected ‘ mayors in Doncaster (Lab) and North Tyneside (Lab)

19. Likely outcomes Cambridgeshire & P’boro Con Greater Manchester Lab
Liverpool City region
Tees Valley
West Midlands
Lab (?Con after 2nd vote)
West of England
Con (??LD after 2nd vote)

20. Conservative landslides
Conservative majority in 1983 – 144 seats; in 1987 – 101 seats

21. Local Elections - Scotland
Professor John Curtice
University of Strathclyde
@whatscotsthink
whatscotsthink.org

22. The System Single Transferable Vote in three and four member wards
Surplus votes and votes of bottom candidates redistributed in accordance with second and subsequent preferences until enough reach the quota for election (votes/(seats+1)+4
Approximately proportional system but with high de facto threshold; 20% or 25% in a ward
Parties can nominate more than 1 candidate while voters can interleave candidates from different parties in their order of preference.

23. The Outcome in 2012 % votes Seats Council Control Conservatives 13.3
115
Labour
31.4
394 4
Liberal Democrats
6.6 71
SNP
32.3
425 2
Greens
2.3 14
Independents
12.1
200 3
Others
1.9
TURNOUT
39.1
Labour subsequently gained control of South Lanarkshire via local by-elections

24. 2012: An Exceptional Election?

25. Political Backdrop
Conservatives take second place in 2016 Holyrood election
Scotland votes to Remain in the EU
UK and Scottish Governments fundamentally disagree about shape of Brexit
Sturgeon calls for #indyref2 in late 2018/early 2019
May calls UK general election!

26. Little Change in Opinion on Independence
Source: whatscotlandthinks.org

27. Aggregate Effect of Boundary Changes (25/32 councils)
Source: Prof. David Denver, Lancaster University

28. Within Council Impact
Labour would not have won control of West Dunbarton
Labour would have not had the position of sole largest position it enjoyed on 5 councils, including Edinburgh

29. Candidate Numbers Total Change since 2012 Conservatives 380 +18 Labour
453
-44
Liberal Democrats
247
n/c
SNP
627
+14
Greens
218
+132
Independents
499
Others
148
-78
ALL
2,572
+76

30. Points To Note Labour only fighting half of seats in South Lanarks.
Every Labour candidate needs to win in Glasgow, Renfrewshire and West Dunbarton to retain control
Conservatives only fighting half of seats in South Ayrshire
Independents guaranteed to retain control of three island councils

31. Two Polls of Local Vote Intention

32. Local By-Election Record
Based on all local by-elections fought by Con, Lab and SNP in 2012 and in local by-election

33. SNP Targets Control: Largest Party: Clackmannan E. Ayrshire Midlothian
N. Ayrshire
Renfrew
Stirling
W. Lothian
Largest Party:
Aberdeen
East Dunbartonshire
East Lothian
Edinburgh
Falkirk
Fife
Glasgow
Moray
North Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire

34. Local Elections - Wales
Professor Roger Scully
Cardiff University  

35. Wales 22 Local Authorities Last elections 2012 (2013 in Ynys Mon)
2012 results very good for Labour

36. 2012/13 Results - Wales Party Councillors Won Authorities won Labour
580 (+235)
10 (+8)
Plaid Cymru
170 (-35)
Conservative
105 (-69)
0 (-2)
Lib-Dems
73 (-93)
Independents
337 (-39)
2 (-1)
Others
18 (-10)

37. Number of candidates by party, 2017
N of Candidates (change on 2012/13)
Labour
940 (+94)
Independents
767 (+21)
Conservatives
627 (+59)
Plaid Cymru
579 (+49)
Lib-Dems
281 (-55)
UKIP
80 (+67)
Greens
78 (+10)
Others
132 (+3)

38. New Poll on Local Voting Intentions, Wales (change on 2012 poll)
Labour: 28% (-20)
Conservative: 26% (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+2)
UKIP: 8% (n/a)
Lib-Dems: 7% (-1)
Others: 12% (n/a)

39. The Parties: Labour Exceptional performance in 2012
Already expectations of losses pre-snap election
Councils to watch:
Cardiff
Swansea
Newport

40. The Parties: Conservatives
Poor performance in 2012 (two months after ‘omni-shambles’ budget)
General context transformed by snap general election
Councils to watch:
Monmouthshire
Vale of Glamorgan

41. The Parties: Plaid Cymru
Held up best of opposition parties against Labour tide in 2012
Largely flat-lining in polls in recent months
Councils to watch:
Gwynedd
Ynys Mon

42. The Parties: Liberal Democrats
Lost over 50% of seats defending in 2012
Little recent progress in Welsh polls, after very poor results in 2014/15/16
Councils to watch:
Cardiff
Ceredigion
Powys

43. PSA Media stefanie.mair@psa.ac.uk | 0207 321 2545 | @PolStudiesAssoc
Professor Michael Thrasher (University of Plymouth) |
Professor Colin Rallings (University of Plymouth) |
Professor John Curtice (University of Strathclyde)
@whatscotsthink | whatscotsthink.org |
Professor Roger Scully (Cardiff University) |
PSA Media |