1. Cornerstone Government Affairs
Federal Update
Cornerstone Government Affairs
September 20, 2016

2. Dems “Own” 90 % of Electoral College Votes
Dems Have Won 242 Electoral Votes Six Times in a Row
Democratic Stronghold States and Electoral College Votes Won: 12 4 7 10 3 10 29 16 +3 +6
MA:11 +8 20
RI: 4 +8
CT: 7 +8 +8
NJ:14 55 20 +2
DC: 3
DE: 3 +3 +1
MD: 10 +2
Analysis
Since 1992, Democratic candidates have won18 states and D.C. have voted Democratic six times in a row, adding up to 242 electoral votes―89.6% of the 270 votes needed for victory
more than 300 electoral votes 4 out of 6 times
HI: 4

3. Of 11 Battleground States, Romney Won Only NC in 2012
2012 Presidential Election Battleground States: Electoral College 4 10 16 6 20 6 18 9 13 15 29
Obama
Romney
Barack Obama (D)
Mitt Romney (R)

5. Republicans Currently Hold the Five Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2016
Hotline’s 2016 Senate Rankings
■ Seat Held by Republican ■ Seat Held by Democrat
Illinois: Sen. Mark Kirk (R) is trailing in polls in a blue state, and is lacking in support from outside spending groups. Kirk has publicly disavowed Trump in a TV ad, seeking to distance himself from his party.
Wisconsin: Former senator Russ Feingold (D) is running an aggressive campaign against Ron Johnson (R), but Johnson has ample support from outside spending groups.
New Hampshire: New Hampshire voted Demo­crat­ic by 6 and 9 points in the last two pres­id­en­tial elec­tions, so Kelly Ayotte (R) is likely to need a sig­ni­fic­ant num­ber of voters sup­port­ing both her and Hil­lary Clin­ton to win, which won’t be easy against the state’s current governor Maggie Hassan (D).
Pennsylvania: Na­tion­al Demo­crats spent $5 mil­lion to get their chosen can­did­ate, 2014 gubernat­ori­al can­did­ate Katie Mc­Ginty (D), through a messy nom­in­at­ing fight. Pat Toomey (R) has a lot of money to spend in his effort to brand himself as independent from his party.
Ohio: Rob Port­man (R) sits on slightly safer ground than some colleagues, thanks to an in­cred­ible fun­drais­ing year and a pro­act­ive reelec­tion cam­paign, but he still faces a former governor with near universal name recognition, Ted Strickland (D). WI IL NH PA OH NV MS NC AZ FL
6. Nevada: Open (D)
7. Florida: Marco Rubio (R)
8. North Carolina: Richard Burr (R)
9. Missouri: Roy Blunt (R)
10. Arizona: John McCain (R)

6. Which Senate Seats Are Most Likely to Flip?
Hotline’s 2016 Senate Rankings
State
Incumbent
Challenger
Polling
1. Illinois
Not enough polling
Mark Kirk (R)
Tammy Duckworth (D)
2. Wisconsin
Ron Johnson (R)
Russ Feingold (D)
3. New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Maggie Hassan (D)
4. Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R)
Katie McGinty (D)
5. Ohio
Rob Portman (R)
Ted Strickland (D)

7. Federal Appropriations
Land-Grant NIFA Priorities ($Millions)
Priority
FY 2016
FY 2017
Enacted
President’s Request
APLU Request
House
Senate
Smith-Lever 3(b)-(c)
Hatch-Act
Evans-Allen (1890s Research)
54.185
58.000
60.500
1890 Institutions Extension
45.620
48.350
49.350
McIntire-Stennis
33.961
35.500
AFRI

8. APLU Priorities vs. Total NIFA
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
FY 2015
FY 2016
FY16 - FY 10 Dollar Change
FY 16 - FY 10 % Change
AFRI
87.518
33%
Hatch
28.701
13%
McIntire-Stennis
29.000
32.934
30.427
33.961
4.961
17%
Smith-Lever
2.500 1%
Evans-Allen
48.500
50.898
47.023
52.485
54.185
5.685
12%
1890s Extension
42.677
42.592
39.270
43.920
45.620
2.943 7%
Research and Education Activities
31.442 4%
Extension Activities
(19.032)
-4%
Integrated Activities
60.022
37.000
21.482
35.317
30.900
(29.122)
-49%
Total NIFA 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,
(16.712)
-1%