1. Chapter 13 Voting and Elections

2. Voting Behavior
Voting is a form of conventional political participation.
Well-accepted, moderate forms
Unconventional political participation
Unusual or extreme measures: protests, boycotts, picketing
Turnout is the proportion of electorate who votes.
40% vote regularly, 25% occasionally, 35% rarely or never
Italy, Australia, Sweden – >70%
States regulate voter eligibility.

3. Voting Behavior Education More larnin’, more voting’
Registration is seen as easier
Voting is perceived to be effective

4. Voting Behavior Wealth System works weal for the wealthy
Voting seen as effective
Results directly effect personal & business finance
Relatively class-less parties

5. Voting Behavior Age 26th Amendment 18-24 58% vote
Mobile, no roots, hassle to register
But, CA, 18’s vote as much as rest of population
30+ votes more
70+ votes less

6. Voting Behavior
Gender
19th Amendment
Women are majority of voters

7. Voting Behavior Race Whites vote more than minorities
Income? Education? History?
VRA 1965
Bans anything that limits access to voting
Literacy tests
“Write every other word in this first line and print every third word in same line (original type smaller and first line ended at comma) but capitalize the fifth word that you write.”  
Feds monitor elections Shelby County v. Holder

8. Voting Behavior Race (cont.) Hispanics, Latinas/Latinos (or, Latins)
CO, NV, NM
‘04 voting rates White 67% Black 60% Hispanic 44%
Diverse group –time here, income
country of origin - Puerto Rico, can vote?
Cuba, Republican; Mexico, Democrat
History with colonialism – sim.
Political processes – diff.

9. Voting Behavior Groups Trade, professional, civic, unions Religion
Community involvement
Members exposed to party requests
Skills relevant
Unions increase # of poor, less educated who vote

10. Voting Behavior Interest in politics
Party and issue activists only <5%
Only 10% contribute time or money to campaigns
Internet increases participation
SNS’s a game-changer

11. Why Is Turnout so Low?
‘ %
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12. Why Is Turnout so Low? Too busy School Work Excuses
Probably something else – apathy, ignorance

13. Why Is Turnout so Low? Registration is a pain
Once registered, high percentages do vote
Requires effort, when it could be automatic
Election day registration helps, especially with poor and young voters
National Voter Registration Act (Motor Voter) ‘93
Requires states to provide registration at or through:
Drivers’ license facility
Public agencies (military recruitment offices)
mail

14. Why Is Turnout so Low?
Difficult absentee process – must apply in person
Too Many Elections!
Twice as many as Europe
2-year terms
Federalism
Primaries

15. Why Is Turnout so Low? Parties Voter attitudes
No issues worth effort (!), status quo OK, uncontested elections
Quality of campaigns
Divided government (2% drop)
Compulsory voting?
Parties
Parties have become bureaucratic, distanced from people
GOTV efforts still inadequate

16. Ways to Improve Voter Turnout
Easier registration = more voting
Same day, automatic, register remotely, satellite locations, mail-in
Easier voting = more voting
Any day, satellite locations, mail-in
Taxpayers and voting administrators LOVE these
Motor Voter has increased voting 5-9%

17. Patterns in Vote Choice
Party identification
Dem’s vote Dem, Rep’s vote Rep (duh)
BUT lotsnlotsa ticket splitting
55% PREFER divided government
Don’t trust parties? Non-partisanship? Usual suspects?
Race & Ethnicity
Whites trending Republican, Blacks Democrat
‘08 95% Obama 67% Hispanics
Chinese-American, Dem., Vietnamese American, Rep.

18. Patterns in Vote Choice
Gender
Gender gap 5-7%
Clinton vs Obama
No basis to claim men vote for men, women vote for women

19. Patterns in Vote Choice
Religion
Jewish voters Rep. support for Israel, otherwise Dem.
Catholics gone from Dem. To Rep., lately supported the winner
Protestants ‘04 59% Bush, 40% Kerry
Race
Evangelical 80% Bush, mainline 54% Bush
Income – middle class decides
Ideology – duh

20. Patterns in Vote Choice
Issues
Economy – retrospective judgement, prospective judgement
2008 – economic crisis, war
Obama / McCain
Terrorism, 86% McCain
But only 9% thought it was an important issue

21. Purposes of Elections
Legitimize government, even in authoritarian systems.
Organize government.
Choose issue and policy priorities.
Electorate gives winners a mandate.

22. Types of Elections Primary elections can be open or closed.
Crossover voting or raiding can occur in open primaries.
Runoff primaries held if no candidate wins a majority.
General elections determine who will fill public offices.
Ballot measures: initiative, referendum, and recall.

23. Presidential Elections
Delegates to convention chosen by election or caucus.
Elections may be winner-take-all (Rep.) or proportional (Dem.)
Caucuses are better for the party organization.
Meet in small groups (Iowa)
Elections allow for broader participation.

24. Primaries vs Caucuses This is a caucus This is the Caucasus
This is… well, never mind…

25. Primaries vs Caucuses Caucus used to be corrupt
Now they look a lot like a primary election
Primaries
a preliminary election to appoint delegates to a party conference or to select the candidates for a principal, especially presidential, election
Very democratic
usually select moderate – candidate who “can win”
“sophisticated voting”
“job interview”, test the candidates
But no chance to get information like in a caucus
Unfair scheduling
New Hampshire gets excessive media attention
Primaries test stamina, not competence

26. Front-loading States want to schedule early
Many candidates chosen by February
Unfairly benefits front-runner
Must win the “invisible primary”
Internet eases this concern – Ron Paul, ’08, $6m in one day

27. Party Conventions Each party has its own rules about delegates.
Democrats no longer subscribe to unit rule.
Delegates tied to candidate, except superdelegates.
Require representation of women and minorities.
Republicans do not bind delegates to candidate.
Media extensively cover happenings.

28. National Party Conventions
Used to be place for party compromise
Outcome is usually decided before the convention
Three factors reducing convention importance
#1. delegate selection
Party leaders out of the loop, increased popular influence
Unit rule abolished
Majority in a state could make every delegate vote for it’s candidate
Proportional selection
Most candidates have to be decided before convention
No freedom to wheel and deal
Many states passed these as laws, so Rep.’s do this too
Decreased democracy – superdelegates
delegates tend to be elites

29. Conventions #1. Delegate selection (cont.) #2. Candidates and issues
Delegates reflect party constituencies
After ‘68, Dems mandated inclusion
‘08, 35% minorities, 50% women
Reps, not so much
#2. Candidates and issues
Still hash out platform, debate direction, but…
The usual suspects
#3. News media
Dog and pony show
Primetime TV
More show than substance?
Maybe replace with direct primaries?

30. Electoral College
Representatives from each state who select president.
Electors equivalent to senators plus representatives.
Framers favored system to remove power from people.
Originally president and vice president selected alone.
Changed after Twelfth Amendment.
1876 and 2000 elections demonstrate concerns.

31. Reforming the Electoral College
Three major proposals have been made.
Select the president by popular vote.
Each congressional district has a vote.
Keep the College, abolish the electors.

32. Congressional Elections
In Congress, incumbency has its advantages.
Support from a paid staff.
Media and travel budgets.
“Scaring off” other challengers.
Redistricting and gerrymandering to protect incumbents.

33. Why Incumbents Lose
Redistricting can pit incumbents against one another.
Scandals.
Presidential coattails.
Midterm elections; president’s party usually loses seats.

34. 2008 Congressional Elections
Democrats advantaged by momentum and money.
Used these to make gains in House and Senate.
Victories in South and West were particularly notable.

35. Reforming the Electoral Process
End front-loading with regional primaries.
Even the playing field with new campaign finance laws.
Increase turnout with online voting or voting by mail.
Make voting more accessible with a modern ballot.

36. AV- Turnout of Eligible Voters
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37. Figure 13.1- South v. Non-South
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38. Figure 13.2- Why People Don’t Vote
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39. Figure 13.3- Registered Voters
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40. Figure 13.4- Front-loading
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41. Figure 13.5- Electoral College
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42. Figure 13.6- Gerrymandering
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43. Figure 13.7- Electronic Voting Machines
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44. Table 13.1- Voter Eligibility
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45. Table 13.2- Women at Conventions
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46. Table 13.3- Congressional Elections
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47. Table 13.4- Election Results
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