1. Vidvuds Beldavs, University of Latvia, FOTONIKA-LV research center
Draft
ILD Status
Vidvuds Beldavs,
University of Latvia, FOTONIKA-LV research center

2. “If God wanted man to become a spacefaring species, he would have given man a moon.”
Krafft Ehrike Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the 21st Century (1985)
kaguya moon mission ‎14 September 2007

3. Objective of ILD
Demonstrate the feasibility of commercial industrial development on the Moon
Tough problem.
Takes a decade to solve – 2020 – 2030
Requires international cooperation

4. Accessible resources in outer space are boundless
«To-date, all human economic activity has depended on the material and energy resources of a single planet, and it has long been recognized that developments in space exploration could in principle open our closed planetary economy to essentially unlimited external resources of energy and raw materials»
Ian Crawford – «Lunar Resources: A Review»

5. Boundless resources get cheaper
In the long term products made from boundless resources would approach zero cost.
A “Moore’s Law” for outer space manufacturing:
Production costs in space will decline by X per decade. If X is .5, then in 4 decades the cost of building a space city costing $1 trillion in 2030 would be $62.5 billion.
Geoffrey West -

6. By Wgsimon - Own work, CC BY-SA 3. 0, https://commons. wikimedia

7. Need high volume for low costs
Low volume
High volume, large
Fuel for spacecraft to Mars
Space-based solar power Geo-engineering for climate change Space cities

8. Cost drivers Market demand. High volume drives down costs.
Access to low cost resources.
Processing technology – automation.
Transportation. Launch from Earth high cost.
Cost drivers

9. Mars vs Moon
Mars
Moon
Mars is very far, very expensive, deep gravity well, atmosphere, perchlorates, other toxins.
Extremely high startup costs
1/3 g - May not be suitable for long term settlement
Close enough for teleoperation from Earth
Source of resources to build space industries and habitats and products for Earth.
Near-term product potential with basalt fiber

10. Uses of lunar resources
ISRU – Operations on Moon
In space for space missions – lunar water for Mars/ other missions
Direct economic contribution to Earth economy – viewed as long term, 3He, rare earth materials
Reference Ian Crawford “Lunar Resources: A Review”

11. Lunar water May reduce cost to reach Mars
The practical possibilities of extraction remain to be confirmed.
International agreement required to appropriate the resource.
Volume of water required to fuel missions to Mars limited. Infrastructure and development costs need to be amortized.
The size of the resource base may be more limited than expectations.
Projectile launch of water from Earth could potentially undercut water extracted from the Moon at $500 / kg on the lunar surface.

12. Direct contribution
3He – Fusion not in use, resource not concentrated, distributed over wide area
Platinum group metals. Possible but asteroids may be more promising
Rare earths. Possible but need more extensive exploration, assays.
Basalt. Abundant with multiple uses.

13. Lunar basalt fiber
Lunar basalts are highly prevalent with regolith covering much of the lunar surface.
Regolith is typically >40% oxygen by weight, with ~3% yielded simply in melting regolith, and offers a source for fuel, life support and other uses of oxygen in outer space.
Technologies to process basalts into useful forms are relatively simple. Basalt fiber is high strength, widely used on Earth. Basalt has also been used for thermal shielding in spacecraft. Basalt fiber mat could potentially offer protection for micrometeorite impact for satellites and structures in outer space. Lunar regolith ISRU has been extensively studied by NASA and knowledge base is available to draw on for technology development.
In the longer term O’Neill cylinders could incorporate substantial amounts of basalt fiber offering a very large potential market. At least one NewSpace entrant (Jeff Bezos) makes such plans integral to his vision.

14. Lunar basalt Oxygen is widely available - over 40% of lunar regolith.
Basalt fiber can be produced from lunar regolith through known processes.
Basalt fiber has many potential uses on the Moon, satellites in Earth orbit, spacecraft reentry
Shorter path to demonstrate feasibility than water ice, 3He.
Can advance other options - energy systems for lunar operations, construction of facilities, equipment on lunar surface

15. Lunar basalt products
Basalt fiber mesh that can be woven into arbitrarily large surfaces and a broad range of products useful on the Moon and in space.
Buckets for earth-moving equipment for use on Moon
Facility walls, tables, chairs, cabinets, tools.
Lunar sling for launch.
Satellite and spacecraft outer shells for space facilities ranging in size to O’Neill cylinders.

16. Growth of space economy
$400 billion / Earth 73.4 trillion (WB)
Space launch, satellite services – communictions, Earth observation, navigation, military
$1.2 trillion
Near term benefits largely satellite launch, servicing, startup of space tourism.
$11 trillion
Lunar materials, larger space tourism, SBSP
$28.5 trillion / Earth - $182 trillion (WB)
SBSP, first space cities, Earth-Mars cycler,
Growth of space economy

17. No Moon rush
Demonstration of the feasibility of industrial development of the Moon is tough, will take a decade.
U.S., China, E.U., Russia, Japan, India, Korea, others are interested.
Activity must be coordinated.

18. Acceleration thru crashportation
Use surplus ICBMs to deliver valuable material to lunar surface at low cost.
50 Peacekeepers in secure storage. Cannot be commercially used.
Launch materials for mirrors, conducting wire, other elements of solar furnaces, other systems to process lunar regolith and to produce basalt fiber.
Reduce time to start-up of prototype operation by two or more years.
Proposed as U.S. contribution to ILD to accelerate commercial development on Moon.

19. Results by 2030
Demonstration of a viable lunar basalt business serving multiple markets on the Moon, in cislunar space, and space launch from Earth.
Demonstration of the feasibility to construct space cities (O’Neill cylinders) from lunar materials at forecasted declining costs.

20. Earliest estimated date
O’Neill colony models
Model
Length (km)
Radius (m)
Period (sec)
Population*
Earliest estimated date 1
100 21
10,000
1988 2
3.2
320 36
x 103
1996 3 10
1000 63
0.2-2 x 106
2002 4 32
3200
114
x 106
2008
Source G.K. O’Neill, «Colonies in Space», Physics Today 1974

21. Timeline – production costs
Demonstrate feasibility of industrial production on Moon
2030
Build O’Neill model 1 – cost $100 billion
2040
Build O’Neill model 2 – cost $100 billion
2050
Build O’Neill model 4 – cost $100 billion
2060

22. "We’ll make all of our vitamins in space and we’ll just send the microprocessors down to Earth. Then Earth can eventually be zoned residential and light industry, and we can move all of our heavy industry off planet where it belongs, where it has easy access to solar power and other forms of energy.“
Jeff Bezos – Geekwire interview / jeff-bezos/

24. Space city – model 4 Comfortable housing for > 1 million people
Cost per person – comparable to urban housing on Earth. Home - $100,000 to $1,000,000

25. Climate change and costs on Earth
Cost of desirable land will increase
Construction costs likely to increase
Potential for comparable costs to live in space as on Earth before 2100
Implication – Mortgage financed space cities

26. China’ s ghost cities

28. Paldies!