1. 7-May-18

2. Offered by Dr. Marijike D´Hasese
Presentation in the course on Agricultural Economics of Developing Countries
Offered by Dr. Marijike D´Hasese
University of Ghent
7th March 2014
7-May-18

3. CONTENTS Indian Agriculture at a glance
Global Hunger Index – Where India stands
Food security definition
Physical Availability of Food
Engle’s law - trends in consumption expenditure
Per Capita Consumption of Cereals and Pulses
Inequality in Consumption
Elasticities of Food Expenditure by commodity
Demand & Supply projections for Food grains
Government Measures for Food Security
National Food Security Act 2013
Conclusion and Policy Implications
References
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4. 7-May-18

5. 7-May-18

6. 7-May-18

7. 7-May-18

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9. Population
1.27 billion
Strength / Weakness
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10. Stark Realties But India has…………..
India is ranked 10th largest Economy in the world on nominal GDP basis
and 3rd largest economy on PPP basis
But India has…………..
29% of the million undernourished people (FAO)
49% of the world’s underweight children (WHO)
34% of the world’s stunted children (WHO)
Over 46% undernourished children (WHO)
India is ranked 67th, way below neighboring countries
like China, Nepal & Pakistan, in 2011 Global Hunger Index worked out by IFPRI.
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11. 21% of India’s population is undernourished,
According to the latest data on child under-nutrition during 2005–10, India is ranked second from last on the basis of underweight children out of 129 countries— below Ethiopia, Niger, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Only Timor-Leste had a higher rate of underweight children.
21% of India’s population is undernourished,
nearly 44% of children below the age of 5 are underweight
and …………………
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12. 7% of them die before they reach their fifth birthday
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13. India’s Performance on Global Hunger Index
Year
India’s Rank in Hunger index
Out of total no. of countries
Score
Status
1990
31.73
Alarming
2007 94
118
25.03.
2008 66 88
23.70
2009 65
23.90
2010 67 84
24.10
2011 81
24.2
2012 79
22.9
2013 63 78
21.3
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Source:-Global Hunger Report, IFPRI

14. Food Security
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15. Food Security - Meaning
Food Security exists, when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preference for an active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit, Rome, 1996)
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16. Four dimensions of Food Security
Physical Availability of Food
The supply side, determined by the level
of food production, stock level & net trade.
Economic & Physical access to Food
Adequate supply of food does not guarantee household level food security. Food access depends on incomes, expenditure, markets & prices in achieving food security objectives
Food
Security
Food Utilization
The way the body makes the most of various nutrients in the food. Involves care & feeding practices, food preparation, diversity of diet & intra-household distribution of food.
Stability of the other 3 dimensions over time
Access on a periodic basis. Weather, political conditions or economic factors have an impact on food security status.
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17. Physical Availability of Food
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18. Physical Availability of Food
(million tonnes)
Crop
Rice
105.31
104.22
Wheat
94.88
93.62
Coarse cereals
42.04
39.52
Total cereals
242.23
237.36
Pulses
17.09
18.00
Total food grains
259.32
255.36
Oilseeds
29.79
30.72
Sugar
24.60
26.00
Vegetables
156.44
Fruits
76.42
79.40
Milk
127.9
133.7
7-May-18
Source:-RBI Hand Book on India Economy

19. Trend in Production of Food grains
Source: Hand book of Indian Economy, RBI,
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20. Net Availability of Cereals and Pulses
(in million tonnes)
Year
Cereals
Pulses
44.3
8.0
64.6
11.1
84.0
10.3
104.8
9.4
145.7
12.9
145.6
11.3
157.4
12.7
168.8
13.3
168.9
14.7
165.9
17.6
173.7
15.8
176.5
13.7
Net availability of cereals=Net production +net imports-changes in government stock of cereals
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Source: Indian Economy,Gaurav Datt and Ashwani Mahajan,2013

21. Per capita availability, 2012-13
(in gram per day)
Commodity
Per capita availability
Minimum per capita requirement
Total cereals
528.70
400
Pulses
46.78 80
Total food grains
568.79
480
Oil
39.73 30
Sugar
54.79 20
Vegetables
348.47
300
Fruits
176.86
150
Milk
297.81
=68.42*0.3=20.53
Source:-National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad
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22. Per Capita Availability (in grams per day )
Source: Policy Brief on demand for Food Grains during 2020 ,2009,NCAP, New Delhi.
Note: Figure prepared by Gourav Kumar Vani
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23. Per capita Net Availability Per Day
(in gram per day)
Year
Cereals
Pulses
Total
334.2
60.7
394.9
399.7
69.0
468.7
417.6
51.2
468.8
417.3
37.5
454.8
468.5
41.6
510.1
366.2
30.0
416.2
390.9
31.5
422.4
412.1
32.5
444.5
407.4
442.8
374.6
41.8
436.0
407.0
37.0
444.0
31.6
438.6
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Source: Indian Economy,Gaurav Datt and Ashwani Mahajan,2013

24. Per capita Consumption Expenditure on different items
for 30 days duration, All India,
Item group
Amount (Rs.)
Rural
Urban
Cereal and cereal substitutes
154
175
Pulse and their products 42 54
Milk and milk products
115
184
Edible oil 53 70
Egg, fish, meat 68 96
Vegetables 95
122
Fruits 41 90
Food total
756
1121
Non food total
673
1509
Total
1430
2630
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Source:-Key Indicators of Household Consumer Expenditure in India, NSSO report for 68th round survey.

25. CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
ENGEL’S LAW
&
TRENDS IN
CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
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26. Trends in Percentage Composition of Consumer Expenditure Since 1993-94 for Rural India
Item group
Cereals
24.2
22.2
18.0
15.6
12.0
Pulses and their products
3.8
3.1
3.7
Milk and milk products
9.5
8.8
8.5
8.6
9.1
Edible oil
4.4
4.6
Egg, fish, meat
3.3
3.5
3.6
Vegetables
6.0
6.2
6.1
4.8
Fruits and nuts
1.7
1.9
1.6
Food total
63.2
59.4
55.0
53.6
48.6
Non food total
36.8
40.6
45.0
46.4
51.4
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Source:-Key Indicators of Household Consumer Expenditure in India, NSSO report for 68th round survey

27. Trend in % Consumer Expenditure on various food items in rural areas
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28. Trends in Percentage Composition of Consumer Expenditure Since 1993-94 for Urban India
Item group
Cereals
14.0
12.4
10.1
9.1
7.3
Pulses and their products
3.0
2.8
2.1
2.7
Milk and milk products
9.8
8.7
7.9
7.8
Edible oil
4.4
3.1
3.5
2.6
Egg, fish, meat
3.4
Vegetables
5.5
5.1
4.5
4.3
Fruits and nuts
2.4
2.2
2.3
Food total
54.7
48.1
42.5
40.7
38.5
Non food total
45.3
51.9
57.5
59.3
61.5
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Source:-Key Indicators of Household Consumer Expenditure in India, NSSO report for 68th round survey.

29. Trends in % consumer expenditure on food items in urban areas
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30. There is decreasing trend in % expenditure on food commodities.
Is this because of Engel’s Law of Consumption Expenditure ?
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31. Growth in Income & Inflation
Period to to
Category
General
Food
CPI
Agricultural labourers
7.76
7.78
3.3
3.18
Rural labourers
7.71
7.8
3.21
Industrial worker
7.15
8.05
6.01
5.31
WPI
Overall  
5.72
8.55
5.37
5.32
Growth rate of
NNPFC 9
6.85
Rural Per capita income
3.46
2.27
Urban Per capita income
11.81
7.75
Total Per capita income
7.57
4.97
Note: Growth rates for inflation are calculated by Gourav Kumar Vani
7-May-18
Source: Policy Brief on demand for foodgrains during 2020, 2009, Ramesh Chand, NCAP, New Delhi

32. Consumption of Cereals and Pulses
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33. All India Per capita Consumption (Kg) of cereals and pulses for 30 days duration for each decile class of MPCEURP,
Decile classes
Rural
Urban
cereals
pulses 1
10.2
0.41
9.43
0.469 2
10.6
0.49
9.54
0.559 3
11.1
0.53
9.47
0.590 4
0.54
9.61
0.665 5
11.5
9.69
0.724 6
11.4
0.61
9.52
0.783 7
11.7
0.62
9.45
0.850 8
11.8
0.72
9.35
0.895 9
12.1
0.77
9.23
0.934 10
0.91
8.57
1.038
All Classes
9.39
0.751
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SOURCE:-NSSO REPORT NO. 538: LEVEL AND PATTERN OF CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE

34. Cereals and pulses consumption across decile expenditure categories
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35. Inequality in Consumption
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36. Lorenz ratios for Rural and Urban Sector of India
URP
MRP
MMRP
Rural
0.291
0.276
0.270
Urban
0.381
0.371
0.362
SOURCE:-NSSO REPORT NO. 538: LEVEL AND PATTERN OF CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
7-May-18

37. Lorenz curve for Rural and Urban India
SOURCE:-NSSO REPORT NO. 538: LEVEL AND PATTERN OF CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
7-May-18

38. Expenditure Elasticity
Estimated Elasticities of Food Expenditure by Commodity
Commodity
Expenditure Elasticity
Rice
-0.21
Wheat
-0.13
Pulse
-0.24
Edible Oil
0.90
Milk
0.55
Vegetables
0.64
Sugar
0.83
Eggs
1.31
Fish, Chicken and Meat
1.17
Source:-Demand and Supply of Cereals in India , IFPRI, Washington
7-May-18

39. Demand & Supply Projections for Food grains
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40. Projected Scenario for 2020
(in million tonnes)
By NCAP
Estimated by Gourav Kumar Vani
BY PLANNING COMMISSION
Crop
Projected demand during 2020
Estimated production for 2020
Demand projected for Vision 2020
Supply projection for scenario of Business as usual (BAU)
Supply projection for Best case scenario (BCS)
Rice
130
117.08
119
125
207
Wheat
110
105.64 92
108
173
Coarse grains
34.92
15.6 13 14
Total Cereals
236.99
262.2
226.6
246
394
Pulses
43.61
42.8
19.5 16 23
Total food grain
280.6
278.62
246.1
262
417
Oilseed
85.33
40.62
Source: 1. GUPTA S.P. ,Report of Committee on India Vision 2020,December 2002, Planning commission, GOI., New Delhi,30-34.
2. Policy Brief on demand for Food Grains during 2020 ,2009,NCAP, New Delhi.
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41. Government Measures for
Food Security
National Food Security Mission
Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana
National Food Security Act 2013
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42. National Food Security Mission
NFSM was launched in Aug,2007 by GOI with an aim of achieving
an additional production of 10, 8 and 2 million tonnes of paddy, wheat and pulses respectively by end of
A sum of Rs crore has been spent till 31st March, 2011
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Source: Economic Survey, 2013

43. Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana
Started in
for incentivizing states to enhance public investment
to achieve 4% growth rate in agriculture and allied sectors during the 11th five year plan.
During , an amount of Rs was released.
Growth in GDP for Agriculture and allied Sectors (%), base year
5.8
0.1
0.8
7.9
3.6
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Source:-Economic Survey, 2013

44. National Food Security Act 2013
50% of urban and 75% of rural population to be covered.
Guarantees providing 5 kg food grain per person per month at a subsidised rate
82 crore people (67%) in both urban and rural areas.
Food grains would include rice, wheat and millets at Rs.3, Rs.2 and Rs.1 per kg, respectively.
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45. 7-May-18

46. Provisions for advancing food security
Revitalisation of agriculture
Agrarian reforms, increase in investment, remunerative prices, access to inputs, credit,
irrigation, power, crop insurance etc. prohibiting unwarrented diversion of land from food
production
2. Procurement, storage and movement related interventions
3. Access to
a) safe and adequate drinking water and sanitation
b) health care
c) nutritional, health and education support to adolescent girls
d) adequate pensions for senior citizens and persons with disability
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47. Requirement of food grains
The annual food grain requirement for implementing the National Food Security Bill is estimated at 61 million tonnes.
Out of this proposed 61 million tonnes of food grains, our 82.4 crore of targeted people require only million tonnes
And
The rest shall be for other institutional arrangements.
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48. Potential
In year FCI procured million tonnes of Food grains and off take was million tonnes.
The stock at the end of the period was million tonnes.
Hence the requirement of 61 million tonnes can be met easily without impacting the functioning of Food grain markets.
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49. Cost of Transferring One Rupee Benefit Cost of income transfer
Scheme
Cost of income transfer
Public Distribution System
5.37
Jawahar Rozgar Yojana
4.35
Maharashtra EGS
3.10
ICDS
1.80
Source: Indian Economy, Gaurav Datt and Ashwani Mahajan, 2013
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50. Cost of Food Subsidy 2012-13 85,000 2013-14 (estimated ) 124000 Year
Amount
12,010
25,746
23,071
23,828
31,259
43,668
58,242
63,844
72,823
85,000
(estimated )
124000
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Source: Indian Economy,Gaurav Datt and Ashwani Mahajan,2013

51. Cost of Food Subsidy
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52. Wastage of Wheat in Godowns
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53. Wastage of Wheat in Godowns
The Food Corporation of India (FCI) - amount of damaged wheat has increased
from
2,010 tonnes in to
2,401 tonnes in
This 2, tonnes is sufficient to meet minimum per capita cereal requirement of two lakh persons for a month or for sixty lakh persons a day.
Source:-
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54. Arrangements Made For Additional Storage Infrastructure
In the Central Pool as on July 30, 2013, the storage capacity stood at 74.6 million tonnes for food grains.
This would be supplemented by about 20.3 million tonnes with the creation of both conventional and silo capacities by private sector participation under the Private Entrepreneur Guarantee (PEG) scheme.
FCI has already taken over facilities totalling a capacity of 7.3 million tonnes, while the rest is expected to be ready in the next couple of years.
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55. Further, FCI will be adding capacity of 0
Further, FCI will be adding capacity of 0.6 million tonnes, especially in the difficult terrain of the north-eastern states, as is envisaged in the 12th Plan.
FCI also have the option of hiring capacities from private or public sector players, based on actual demands.
Source:- Food Security Bill could Spark grain crisis: Ashok Gulati, March 21, 2013, Times of India
7-May-18

56. How Far PDS is Benefiting Poor?
Recent World Bank report says that PDS which accounts for 1% of GDP benefits only 40% of targeted beneficiaries.
Source:A leaky Bucket, Times of India, May 20, 2011,
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57. ? Is this Food Security or Cereal Security
As per the Food Security Act 2013, Section 2, sub section 7 the term “Food Security “ means ‘the supply of the entitled quantity of foodgrains and meal specified under Chapter II’.
According to Section 2, Sub section 8 “Food Security Allowance” means ‘the amount of money paid by the concerned State Government to the entitled persons under section 13’.
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Source: Food Security Act 2013

58. Conclusion and policy implications
India will not have problem of Cereals availability in the long run ( ) and will have shortage of Pulse and Oilseed production which needs to be addressed by the Government of India.
Public Distribution System has to be revamped to reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of ensuring food security, by adopting local procurement policy, ensuring adequate remuneration to FPS owners.
Sustainability of Food Subsidy is subject to operation of FRBM Act 2003 (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003).
Storage of Food grains needs to be made more scientific and prevent rotting of food grains.
Need to curb the growth of inflationary tendencies in economy and especifically Food Inflation to improve nutritional security. .
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59. References
ANONYMOUS, December 2011, Level and pattern of consumption
expenditure NSS 66th round, report no. 538, NSSO, published by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, GOI, New Delhi.
ANONYMOUS, 2011, Dietary Guidelines for Indians: A manual, published by
National Institute of Nutrition, ICMR, Hyderabad: 6.
ANONYMOUS, , Hand book of Indian Economy, published by RBI.
ANONYMOUS, 2012, Global Hunger Index: The challenge of hunger;
Ensuring sustainable food security under land, water, and energy stresses, published by IFPRI, Washington:
ANONYMOUS, India’s score alarming on hunger map, Times of India: Oct 12, 2012.
ANONYMOUS, 2013, Economic Survey, published by Ministry of Finance, GOI, New Delhi:
ANONYMOUS, June 2013, Key Indicators of Household Consumer Expenditure in India, NSS report 68th round survey
(July 2011-June 2012), published by NSSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, GOI, New Delhi.
ANONYMOUS, 2013, Statistical Year Book, published by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, GOI, New Delhi.
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60. CHAND RAMESH, 2009, Policy Brief: Demand for foodgrains during 11th Plan and towards 2020, NCAP/ICAR, New Delhi.
DATT GAURAV AND MAHAJAN ASHWANI, 2013, Indian Economy, S. Chand Publication:
DHAWAN HIMANSHI, 2400 MT wheat rotting in govt granaries for past 2 years, Times of India, May 7, 2013.
JHA RAJESH, SINGH N.K., RANJAN VIKASH, 2012, Survey of Agriculture,Golden Peacock Publications:
GANESHKUMAR, A. AND et.al. Jan 2012, Demand and Supply of Cereals in India , IFPRI Discussion Paper 01158, Environment and Production Technology, New Delhi Office: 17.
GULATI ASHOK, Food Security Bill could Spark grain crisis, Times of India, March 21, 2013.
GUPTA, S. P., Report of Committee on India Vision 2020, December 2002, published by Planning commission, GOI, New Delhi:
RAY SARBAPRIYA, RAY ISHITA ADITYA, 2011, Role and effectiveness of PDS in assuring food Security in India: An Appraisal, Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, 2(4): 244. ni
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61. Web sites
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62.
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63. Thank You
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