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SMR Overview Nuclear South-West Ian Truman Legal Director, Nuclear
Wednesday 30 November
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SMR Training: What are SMRs? Government policy Why are they getting so much attention CCS Competition The market and challenges ahead Leading designs Legal Issues for deployment Financing
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World’s first civil nuclear reactors at Calder Hall were only 60MW(e)
What are SMRs? IAEA: “an advanced reactor that produces electric power up to 300 MW(e), designed to be built in factories and shipped to utilities for installation as demand arises.” US DOE: “a small modular reactor needs to be able to offer the advantage of a lower initial capital investment, short construction time, scalability and siting flexibility to include some locations that might be less suitable for conventional nuclear reactors.” World’s first civil nuclear reactors at Calder Hall were only 60MW(e) Today reactors are over 1.5GW(e) Size increase over time to take advantage of economies of scale Smaller reactors traditionally developed for research and propulsion of ships and submarines Economy of scale - as electrical output rises so does thermal efficiency i.e. the proportion of gross ME(e) to Thermal MW(t) increases.
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Government Policy 2011 Report from House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology 2013 Nuclear Industrial Vision Statement Nuclear Industrial Strategy Long Term Nuclear Energy Strategy The UK’s Nuclear Future 2014 SMR Feasibility Study Energy and Climate Change Committee report on SMRs 2015 Government response to committee report Government Spending Review BEIS Competition 2016 DAS Report on SMR Enablers ETI Report on preparing for deployment 2011 – 13: recommendations on R&D including UK as a top table nuclear nation leading direction of future tech and fuel cycle. To be a key partner of choice in commercialising Gen III+, IV and SMR nuclear technologies worldwide 2013: Industrial Vision Statement - to achieve significant shares in overseas new build programmes through becoming a key partner in Gen III+, IV and SMR nuclear technologies Nuclear Industrial Strategy - Commitment to deployment of SMRs in UK and abroad Long Term Nuclear Energy Strategy – Maintain options for nuclear making major contribution to longer term energy mix including SMRs 2014: Roadmap – Nuclear energy R&D vision to include SMRs Feasibility study – assessing SMR designs deployable in next 10 years with prospect of UK IP Committee report – focus on investment and siting 2015: Gov response to committee report – recognition of potential of SMRs Govt spending review and competition 2016: SW 4.8 GW compared to 10.2 GW in the SE, 11.4 GW Midlands, 13.8 GW East Anglia, 9.9 GW in NW and 14.7 GW in NE
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Why are SMRs getting so much attention?
UK plc Last chance to be a reactor vendor? UK content and IP UK market up to 2035 projected at ~7GW International Export opportunities - global market up to 2035 projected to be between 65-85GW which amounts to £ billion Potential for a further £100 billion from alternative applications UK has not been a reactor vendor since 2006 when BNFL sold WEC Aim to develop marketable IP in: Detailed design Manufacture Construction Fuel fabrication SMRs are particularly well suited in some respects to developing countries where: Electricity needs are dispersed; Grid capabilities are limited; There is a need to balance electricity production against the variable supplies of renewables; and Deliver dual use such as electricity and district heating or desalination. There are of course challenges to deploying SMRs to remote locations such as effective control of the reactor, operation and maintenance, security and non-proliferation concerns.
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Why are SMRs getting so much attention?
UK Energy Generation Mix Policy drivers for new nuclear are still there – energy trilemma Are the days of GW scale nuclear over - questions over current approach – risk, complexity, finance? What have SMRs got to offer? Energy Security Low Carbon Affordability Large GW plants might take advantage of economies of scale but are difficult to finance and generally prone to going over time and budget (apart from Korea)
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What have SMRs got to offer?
The Economics of Nuclear Power Nuclear is expensive to build but cheap to run Overnight cost (£/Kwe) - the amount of capital required to build the asset overnight (EPC and owner’s costs but excludes financing cost, operating expenses and operational performance). Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) (£/MW/h) - the ratio of the total cost of a generic plant (including both capital and operating costs) to the amount of electricity that is actually expected to be generated over the lifetime of the plant. Projected Overnight Cost and LCOE for first of a kind SMR comparable to GW scale nuclear BUT what about next of a kind LCOE is a key component of the strike price Examples of LCOE: HPC - ~£87 MW/h NuScale – FOAK £65MW/h NOAK £59MW/h Terrestrial - £32-40 MW/h
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What have SMRs got to offer?
SMRs cost less Lower capital costs than GW scale nuclear - but still £billions Capital cost typically accounts for 75% of LCOE for large reactors SMR more ‘bite-sized’ Easier to finance? Economics are currently based on projections of SMR developers…… Worldwide ave overnight cost for GW scale nuclear is $6-10 billion Typical market capitilisation of major utilities: GDF Suez $50 billion EDF $46 KEPCO $27 billion
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What have SMRs got to offer?
They are quicker to build Factory based manufacture, modular build Simpler designs Estimated construction time ~3 years rather than 10 years What does this mean? Less exposure to inflation and cost escalation risk Less interest paid – lower cost of borrowing Earlier returns for lenders/investors Improved reactor economics More flexible energy policy
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What have SMRs got to offer?
Next of a kind savings Standardisation of design and multiple units Factory manufacture allowing innovative cost and time saving techniques Further time and cost savings from learning Potential to shorten construction time Economy of scale v economy of multiples
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What have SMRs got to offer?
Simpler, safer and more reliable Integral design – less to maintain, less to go wrong Some designs inherently safer On-line refuelling – increase performance Lower O&M costs Passive safety – natural convection
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What have SMRs got to offer?
Flexibility Modular construction allows additional capacity Good fit for the UK grid? Load following Co-generation of heat and power: District heating Industrial Heating Desalination Hydrogen production Back-up power Disposal of plutonium
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What does history tell us?
“An academic reactor or reactor plant almost always has the following basic characteristics: (1) It is simple. (2) It is small. (3) It is cheap. (4) It is light. (5) It can be built very quickly. (6) It is very flexible in purpose. (7) Very little development will be required. It will use off-the-shelf components. (8) The reactor is in the study phase. It is not being built now. On the other hand a practical reactor can be distinguished by the following characteristics: (1) It is being built now. (2) It is behind schedule. (3) It requires an immense amount of development on apparently trivial items. (4) It is very expensive. (5) It takes a long time to build because of its engineering development problems. (6) It is large. (7) It is heavy. (8) It is complicated.”
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Lessons from the CCS Competition
Background to the CCS Competition The Grant Considered to have great potential for low carbon energy generation but little practical experience of putting technology into practice Government aim that private sector would invest without subsidy at an agreed CFD strike price Government recognised intervention was necessary to commercialise and took steps to address this including reforming the electricity market and the offer of grant funding Up to £1 billion of grant funding to more than 1 successful bidder but no guarantees on amount or that grant would be given Majority of funding only available after selection i.e. limited during FEED study period to develop bids Power island (non CCS infrastructure) excluded from grant funding on state aid grounds Could apply for costs of feasibility studies, EPC formulation, planning and environmental works if an inherent part of CCS project viability
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Lessons from the CCS Competition
CFD CCS competition took place before ERM had been finalised Bidders could be asked to bid on strike price Alternatively short listed bidders may negotiate a bespoke CFD Key Project Risks: Joint and several liability between consortium members Parent company guarantees and Performance Bonds Cost recoverability under the FEED Contract Financing risk Government support mechanisms and change in law risk Sites, consenting and third party risk Change of law and termination risk Exit options Reputational risk Transfer of knowledge Relief events and Force Majeure Catastrophic failure Procurement
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The Market and Challenges ahead
The race for commercialisation What does the UK government need to do? Significant first mover advantage Investor confidence: Agree HPC Finalise government policy and regulatory framework Decide what it wants and pick a winner Revise EN-6 and allocate Sites Fund the ONR GDA slot(s)
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The Market and Challenges ahead
Challenges for developers Win the competition….. Cost certainty Financing / investment - manufacturing facilities? GDA slot Siting and licensing/consenting Secure a forward order book to underpin investment case and maximise next of a kind savings Safety case for alternative applications Export the technology across the globe
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Leading Designs General characteristics of PWR SMRs Novel designs 15 – 350MW(e) 60 year lifetime – generally longer than other SMRs 2-5 year construction time Re-fuelling intervals typically 2-4 years Fuel enrichment typically <5% IMSR, Moltex etc
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Legal Issues for Deployment
Key Legal Issues for SMRs - Licensing Evidence for justification – these are new designs GDA slots Regulatory expertise/capacity – novel designs, passive safety Goals based regulation – familiarity and evidence Suitability of ONR SAPs and TAGs Licensing and control of off-site manufacturing facilities Challenge to ONR norms: Resource sharing between operators Reduced staffing requirements Single control rooms for multiple units Reduced EPZ
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Legal Issues for Deployment
Key Legal Issues for SMRs - Siting Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (EN6) Hatlepool and Heysham Wider site availability for SMRs Work ongoing regarding siting of SMRs - new/updated EN-6 expected Existing nuclear sites – NDA or defence Niche applications will require change to ONR/BEIS siting policy Key issue for SMR developers
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Legal Issues for Deployment
Other legal issues Development consent - may not need grid connection and / or upgrade works Permitting: Environmental permits Grid connections? FDP - New base case for DWMP? Insurance - SMRs not prescribed sites State aid & Brexit - WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Risk of challenge
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Commercial and Financing Issues
Commercial Issues CFD– risk allocation, strike price? Infrastructure guarantee Other support – government providing a site, political risk and change in law Financing – chicken and egg
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Commercial and Financing Issues
Absolute cost relative to GW scale nuclear may be low but still billions Certain aspects are easier – lower capital cost, shorter construction time, shorter pay back period, option for self financing Other risks remain the same – political risk, technology risk SMR specific challenges – securing investment in advance of forward order book? Completion risk –simpler and quicker to build but still major risk Political risk – nuclear = political risk Regulatory / licensing risk – UK regime considered world leading but question over applicability to SMRs Technology risk – SMRs are new technology Electricity market – current uncertainty whether the government has got this right Operations – SMRs may be cheaper to run and more reliable Environmental – SMRs could be better for the environment Nuclear incident – SMRs are safer but operators will still have to insure them Reputational risk – new, high profile technology so still relevant Less sensitive to interest rates May need new financing structures? Debt financing: Banks / financial institutions ECA IDO’s Capital markets e.g. bonds Equity financing: Local and foreign investors Shareholders – vendor equity Capital Markets – IPO
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Commercial and Financing Issues
Government grant funding – USDOE has provided $217 million to NuScale over 5 years UK government research funding of £125 million Current UK policy is for government to facilitate private investment through CFD and infrastructure guarantee Contribution of a site? Relatively bite-size capital costs off balance sheet? Export credit agencies – US Exim? Vendor equity more prominent? Project finance?
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Questions?
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