1. Worldwide NBC Threat
This briefing is UNCLASSIFIED

2. DOD Perspective
“I believe the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction presents the gravest threat the world has ever known.”
WILLIAM COHEN
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
JANUARY 1997

3. Agenda Historical Perspective Motivations Worldwide NBC Capabilities
Outlook

4. Historical Perspective
Four generations of Chemical Warfare Agents:
1st generation agents:
Choking Agents: Chlorine, Phosgene
Blood Agents: Hydrogen Cyanide & Cyanogen Chloride
Blister Agents: Sulfur mustard, Nitrogen Mustard, Lewisite

5. Four Generations of Chemical Warfare Agents
2nd generation agents:
G-series nerve agents: Tabun, Sarin, Soman
3rd generation agents:
V-series nerve agents: VE, VG, VM, VS, and VX
4th generation agents:
“Novichok”

6. Nonlethal Agents Riot Control Agents: Tear Gas Agents: CS, CN
Vomiting Agents: Adamsite, Diphenyl Chloroarsine
Incapacitants:
Psychochemicals: LSD, BZ

7. Biological Warfare Agents
Pathogens & Toxins
Pathogens: organisms that cause disease in humans
bacterial agents: anthrax, plague, tularemia & Q-fever
viruses: smallpox, VEE, Marburg & Ebola viruses
Toxins: poisonous compounds produced by living organisms
botulinum, SEB, ricin

8. Biological Warfare Agents
Advantages:
No reliable BW detection devices currently available
No recognizable signals to human exposure
Can specifically target personnel, crops, livestock or
specific kinds of materiel.
Disadvantages:
ultimate consequences uncertain
potential for international outrage

9. Motivations to Acquire or Develop NBC Capability
Regional threat perceptions
Perception of utility
Prestige
Cost

10. NorthEast Asia

11. Offensive Programs Nuclear Chemical Biological
North Korea possible yes yes
China yes yes yes

12. North Korea
Chemical Weapons: production capability for large quantities of nerve, blister, choking & blood agents.
Biological Weapons: BW R&D for 30 years. Limited production capability: infectious BW agents, toxins & possible crude BW weapons.
Nuclear Weapons: Believed enough plutonium for at least one nuclear weapon produced
Delivery: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, artillery, rocket launchers, mortars, sprayers

14. China
Chemical Weapons: current inventory includes the full range of traditional agents, researching more advanced agents.
Biological Weapons: consistently denies program, has advanced infrastructure and facilities needed for lethal pathogen R&D. Likely maintains program at pre-BWC level.
Nuclear Weapons: First nuclear weapon test in 1964, 1996 test series probably to finalize weapon designs. No first use and no use against non-nuclear power policy. Over 100 nuclear warheads operationally deployed on ballistic missiles.
Delivery: ballistic missile, cruise missiles, aircraft, artillery, rocket launchers, mortars.

16. Syria North Korea China Iran Pakistan Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean
Missile
Chemical
Nuclear
Missile
Chemical
Nuclear
Indian Ocean

17. South Asia

18. Offensive Programs Nuclear Chemical Biological India yes yes no
Pakistan yes yes no

19. India
Chemical Weapons: Sizable chemical industry, June 1997 CWC declaration. Extensive commercial chemical industry. Chemical supplier to Middle Eastern countries of concern.
Biological Weapons: Well developed biological technology. At least some facilities used to support biological defense R&D.
Nuclear Weapons: Program initiation direct response to China’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Symbol of international power & prestige. Sufficient material & components for several nuclear weapons. Fighter aircraft delivery capable.
Delivery: aircraft, artillery, rockets, possibly ballistic missiles

21. Pakistan
Chemical Weapons: Able to transition from R&D to chemical agent production. Imported precursors, moving slowly toward a commercial precursor production capability.
Biological Weapons: Capable, less well-developed infrastructure. Resources and capabilities for limited BW R&D effort.
Nuclear Weapons: Program driven by the need to counter India’s conventional force superiority. Well-developed program and infrastructure to produce nuclear weapons. Sufficient material & components for several nuclear weapons. Fighter aircraft and possibly ballistic missile delivery capability.
Delivery: artillery, aircraft, missiles

23. Middle East & North Africa

24. Offensive Programs Nuclear Chemical Biological Iran R&D yes yes
Iraq R&D yes yes
Libya R&D yes yes
Syria no yes unknown

25. Iran
Chemical Weapons: production capability since early in Iran-Iraq War. Ratified CWC, but continues to upgrade & expand. Manufactures blister, blood & choking agents, believed to be researching nerve agents.
Biological Weapons: also began during Iran-Iraq war. Pace probably increasing since 1995 discovery of pre-Gulf War Iraqi BW program.
Nuclear Weapons: attempting to acquire fissile material for development. Program restarted, possibly in reaction to scope of Iraqi program. China & Russia are key.
Delivery: CW stockpile in artillery shells and bombs; otherwise fighter aircraft & rocket launchers.

27. Iraq
Chemical Weapons: Variety of CW available before Gulf War, including mustard, tabun, sarin. Retains limited ability to reconstitute program. Retains technical knowledge to reconstruct & improve.
Biological Weapons: Developed largest & most advanced BW program in the Middle East in the 1980s. Anthrax, botulinum & aflatoxin declared as weapons. Unilateral destruction claims in doubt.
Nuclear Weapons: Gulf War bombing & monitoring caused significant setbacks. Doesn’t currently possess fissile material production infrastructure. Would have to rely heavily on foreign assistance.
Delivery: fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery, and rockets. Limited stockpile of short-range cruise and tactical missiles possible.

28. Key BW Program Elements Revealed After Hussein Kamel Defection
Production Al Hakam, Daura Foot & Mouth Disease Institute, Taji, Salman Pak
BW Agents ,000 liters botulinum toxin
Produced ,500 liters anthrax
2,400 liters aflatoxin
Testing Aerial bomb field trials: Anthrax & botulinum toxin
Effects on animals observed: March 1988
Live agent 122-mm rocket firings: May 1990
Weaponization Began in large scale December 1990
166 aerial bombs filled with BW agent
25 SCUD warheads filled with BW agent
1990 effort to modify spray tanks for anthrax delivery.
Biological Weapons deployed to operational delivery sites December 1990.

29. Libya
Chemical Weapons: Produced up to 100 tons blister & nerve agents in 1980s. International attentions resulted in underground CW facility. Still seeking independent production capability, remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers.
Biological Weapons: Remains in the early R&D stages due to lack of scientific & technical base. May be capable of producing laboratory quantities of agent.
Nuclear Weapons: Goal of acquiring a nuclear weapon remains. Will likely continue to develop a nuclear weapons infrastructure by whatever means available.
Delivery: fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery, and rockets available as potential delivery systems. Used transport aircraft in CW delivery attempt against Chadian troops in 1987.

31. Syria
Chemical Weapons: A means to counter Israeli superiority & a leadership role in the Arab world. Program dates to the 70s. Has nerve agent stockpile, may attempt advanced nerve agent development. Foreign supply reliant.
Biological Weapons: pursuing BW development, sufficient infrastructure for a small program. Probably no major BW weaponization or testing yet.
Nuclear Weapons: Has not pursued development of nuclear weapons.
Delivery: probably weaponized sarin into aerial bombs & SCUD warheads. Potentially cruise and tactical missiles, fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery & rockets.

33. Former Soviet Union

34. Offensive Programs
Nuclear Chemical Biological
Russia yes yes yes

35. Russia
Chemical Weapons: Declared largest CW stockpile in the world, mostly weaponized. Some chemical weapons incorporate agent mixtures & thickening agents.
Biological Weapons: Inherited the former Soviet Union program-the largest in the world. Economic difficulties imply potential vulnerability of key personnel.
Nuclear Weapons: Reduction effort under way, but plagued by financial difficulties.
Delivery: variety of fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery & rockets.

37. Non-state use of WMD Incident examples:
1995: Aum Shinrikyo cult attacks Tokyo subway with Sarin
Plan to murder US Marshal & IRS agent with ricin
1995 & 1993: Aum Shinrikyo members confess to using anthrax and botulinim toxin against targets in Japan
1986: Typhoid bacteria disseminated by cult members
1984: Attempt to purchase botulism and tetanus agents
1972: Neo-nazi group manufactured typhoid bacilli in plan to contaminate water systems of large midwestern cities.

38. Dangers of Proliferation
Potential for mass casualties
Affect regional stability
Threaten resource supply
Difficult to counter

39. Outlook Lower Threshold for Use:
Has been used in military conflicts
Has been used by terrorist groups
Seen as more acceptable option
Most active WMD programs will continue with trend toward increasing sophistication in agents & delivery
Treaties will not end the threat
Proliferation is of great concern

40. Questions?

41. Worldwide NBC Threat
This briefing has been UNCLASSIFIED