1. Survey of Church Clerks
Mega study 2
North American division of the seventh-day Adventist church

2. Source of Data
A random sample of 500 local churches in the North American Division of the Seventh-day Adventist Church were asked to have the pastor and the church clerk complete questionnaires. A total of 216 church clerks returned valid questionnaires. The standard allowance for statistical error in a sample of this size is six to eight percentage points, plus or minus.
The results of the second survey are compared to a similar survey conducted three years earlier in order to establish trends and produce estimates for planning and administrative purposes.
This study was conducted for the NAD Office of Strategic Planning, Research and Assessment by the Institute of Church Ministry at Andrews University.

3. Typical Sabbath Attendance
It is doubtful that there was any change in the attendance patterns of local churches over the three-year interval between the two surveys. The differences are well within the margin of error. It is possible that there was some migration between the middle-range categories, but unlikely.
The discipline of congregational studies has found that these size categories displayed above have certain characteristics in terms of congregational dynamics. The smallest congregations are known as “single cell” churches. The churches in which the average attendance is 51 to 150 are “pastor-centered” congregations. The churches in which the average attendance is 151 to 250 are “program-centered” congregations. Adventist churches with more than 250 people in attendance each Sabbath are “corporation style” churches. Previous research has shown that more than half of the membership of the NAD is in these largest congregations, while less than one fifth of the members are in the smallest congregations and about a third are in the mid-sized two categories.

4. Membership
There has been no change in the percentage of local churches at each of these four levels of membership. Previous research has shown that the majority of the members of the NAD are affiliated with local churches of 400 or more members, while less than one in five have their membership in local churches with less than 100 members. About a third of the NAD members are in local churches with 100 to 399 members.
These categories of membership are roughly equivalent to the four attendance patterns displayed on the previous page. In general, most local churches in the NAD have an average attendance that is the same number as half the membership, although attendance includes a number of individuals who are not members of either the local church or the denomination. It is important to not confuse this number with the “active members.” Research has shown that about two thirds of the NAD members attend a local church at least once a month, the generally used definition for “active” or “regular” church member in the discipline of congregational studies.

5. Incidence of Church Growth and Decline
Over the three year interval between surveys there has been an increase both in growing churches and declining churches. In both cases the difference is statistically significant. This is an indicator that the leadership in the NAD has successfully made church growth an issue that local church leaders are paying attention to. It is also an indicator that some approaches to growth work, while other approaches actually result in a decrease in membership. It appears that there may be a polarization between growing churches using effective strategies and declining churches locked into an organizational culture that does not want to adopt effective strategies for various reasons.

6. Overall Morale and Spirit of the Congregation Has ….
The percentage of church clerks reporting that the overall morale and spirit in their local church has grown stronger over the past five years has increased during the three-year interval between these two surveys. At the same time the percentage who report that morale has grown weaker has declined. Overall, a more positive attitude is taking hold in the local churches of the NAD.

7. Asian Membership
The Asian membership of the NAD has become more concentrated with an increase in the percentage of local churches which have no Asian members and an increase in the percentage of local churches with 10 to 50 percent of their members of Asian ethnicity. At the same time the percentage of local churches where the majority of the members are Asian remains very small. Overall, these data indicate a growing number of multicultural congregations at the same time that there is an increase in the percentage of congregations with no Asian membership.

8. Black Membership
The black membership of the NAD has become more concentrated with an increase in the percentage of local churches with no black members. At the same time there is a decrease in the percentage of majority black congregations with little change in the percentage of multicultural congregations. These data might indicate an overall decline in black membership in the NAD although it is more likely that an uneven response rate between black and white churches is the primary cause of these data.

9. Caribbean Membership
The Caribbean membership in the NAD may have become somewhat more concentrated in the last three years although the differences here are all less than the allowance for sampling error and therefore not statistically significant. A comparison of this page with the previous page shows that there are as many congregations in the NAD with a majority of Caribbean members as there are historically black congregations. In other words, roughly half of the black churches in the NAD are immigrant churches with West Indian and Haitian members. There may be another trend at the same time of a decline in the African American membership, representing a significant demographic change in the black Adventist community in North America.

10. Hispanic Membership
The Hispanic membership of the NAD has become slightly more concentrated with an increase in the percentage of local churches with no Hispanic members. But the difference between the two surveys over the past three years is within the allowance for sampling error and therefore is not statistically significant. A significant portion of the Hispanic membership is in multicultural congregations as well as in immigrant churches.

11. White Membership
There has been a decline in the percentage of local churches in the NAD where the majority of the members are white and an increase in the percentage of local churches where there are no white members or they constitute a large proportion of the membership. In other words, there has been a significant increase in the ethnic minority membership of the NAD during the three years between these two surveys. This is consistent with the findings of previous research on the ethnic demography of Sevent-day Adventists in North America.

12. Other Ethnic Membership
There has been no statistically significant change in the percentage of local churches with various levels of ethnic minority members other than the five primary categories. These “other” ethnic members would include Native Americans, Canadian First Peoples, Native Hawaiians, Jewish, Arabic and a few other very small segments. Most of these members are part of multi-cultural congregations with a very few in local churches that identify their primary mission in one of these groups.

13. Ethnic Congregations
Church clerks were asked to report what percentage of the members in their local church are in each of six ethnic categories—Asian, Black, Caribbean, Hispanic, White and Other. There were four possible responses for each of these ethnic backgrounds—less than 10 percent, 10 to 50 percent, more than 50 percent or none. The responses should be considered estimates of the key respondent from each local church and not necessarily based on a survey of the members themselves.
Half of the local churches were reported to have a majority (“more than 50 percent”) of their members as white. The 2008 NAD Demographic Survey conducted by the Center for Creative Ministry for the NAD Secretariat reported that at that time only 50 percent of the members self-reported white ethnicity. Based on the rate of change in earlier research, it is very likely that by now the majority of the members of the NAD are ethnic minorities. The data displayed above further confirm that any concept of a white ethnic majority has come to an end in the NAD as of The Adventist Church in North America is not a largely white church; it is a very diverse religion some two or three decades ahead of the general demographic trends for the United States.

14. Participation in E-Adventist Membership Records System
E-Adventist is a web-based membership records system that was established by the NAD for all local churches and conferences. It automatically delivers statistical reports to the union conferences and the NAD Secretariat. It also provides local churches with membership directories, committee lists, mailing lists and other information products.
Over the three years interval between surveys the use of the E-Adventist system by local church clerks has increased by just two percent. This is within the standard allowance for sampling error so it may in fact reflect no real change. Nearly one third of local church clerks are still not using the system. This may be due to a lack of volunteers with the basic computer skills necessary to use it or it may largely be due to the natural resistance to procedures mandated by the denominational structure. It may indicate that the statistical reports are flawed in some ways because of lack of accurate reports from those local churches not using the E-Adventist system. Further attention does need to be given to the barriers to overall adoption of this program.

15. Conducted a Membership Audit in the Last Five Years
The level of uncertainty about a membership audit in the last five years has increased significantly in the three years between these two surveys. It is not clear why this change has occurred.

16. This report was produced by Petr Cincala and Monte Sahlin, December 2014.
Institute of Church Ministry
Andrews University
Berrien Springs, Michigan
(269)