1. Chapter 2 : The Data of Macroeconomics
This chapter covers the meaning and measurement of the most important macroeconomic statistics:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The Unemployment Rate

2. Gross Domestic Product: Expenditure and Income
Two definitions:
Total expenditure on domestically-produced final goods and services.
Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production.
Expenditure equals income because every dollar spent by a buyer becomes income to the seller.

3. The Circular Flow Households Firms Income ($) Labor Goods
Expenditure ($)
Households
Goods
Firms

4. Value added
Value added: The value of output minus the value of the intermediate goods used to produce that output

5. Example: Production of Notebook Paper
Stages of Production
Example: Production of Notebook Paper

6. Compute value added at each stage of production and GDP
NOW YOU TRY:
A farmer grows a bushel of wheat and sells it to a miller for $1.00.
The miller turns the wheat into flour and sells it to a baker for $3.00.
The baker uses the flour to make a loaf of bread and sells it to an engineer for $6.00.
The engineer eats the bread.
Compute value added at each stage of production and GDP

7. Final goods, value added, and GDP
GDP = value of final goods produced
= sum of value added at all stages of production.
= income earned by factors of production
The value of the final goods already includes the value of the intermediate goods, so including intermediate and final goods in GDP would be double-counting.

8. Intermediate and Final Good
Tires taken from that pile and mounted on the wheels of the new car before it is sold are considered intermediate goods.
Tires taken from that pile to replace tires on your old car are considered final goods.
If we included the value of the tires (an intermediate good) on new cars and the value of new cars (including the tires), we would be double counting.

9. The expenditure components of GDP
consumption, C
investment, I
government spending, G
net exports, NX
An important identity:
Y = C I G NX
This slide lists the expenditure components; the following slides will define and discuss each of them.
We can define GDP not just as total expenditure on final goods & services, but also as (the value of) aggregate output of final goods & services.
An identity is an equation that always holds because of the way the variables are defined.
value of total output
aggregate expenditure

10. What happens to GDP if you buy the house?
Consumption (C)
definition: The value of all goods and services bought by households. Includes:
durable goods last a long time e.g., cars, home appliances
nondurable goods last a short time e.g., food, clothing
services work done for consumers e.g., dry cleaning, air travel, legal.
also, rent is a payment for housing service.
What happens to GDP if you buy the house?
A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption.
A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.”
So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before.
In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing.
think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services.” Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment,” and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant).

11. U.S. Consumption, 2017Q2 Services Nondurables Durables Consumption
% of GDP
$ billions
13,292
69.1
9,052
2,788
1,453
47.1
14.5
7.5
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Third quarter advance estimate (released 12/23/2014)

12. Investment (I)
Spending on goods bought for future use (i.e., capital goods)
Three components of I:
Business fixed investment Spending on plant and equipment
Residential fixed investment Spending by consumers and landlords on new residential construction.
Change in Inventory The change in the value of all firms’ inventories
Note that aggregate investment equals total spending on newly produced capital goods. If I pay $1000 for a used computer for my business, then I’m doing $1000 of investment, but the person who sold it to me is doing $1000 of disinvestment, so there is no net impact on aggregate investment.
Think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant).
Inventories
If total inventories are $10 billion at the beginning of the year, and $12 billion at the end, then inventory investment equals $2 billion for the year.
Note that inventory investment can be negative (which means inventories fell over the year).

13. U.S. Investment, 2017Q2 Δ Inventory Residential Business fixed
% of GDP
$ billions
3,162
16.4
-2.6
740
3,164
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Third quarter advance estimate (released 12/23/2014)

14. Investment vs. Capital Note: Investment is spending on new capital.
Example (assuming no depreciation):
1/1/2009: economy has $500b worth of capital
during 2009: investment = $60b
1/1/2010: economy will have $560b worth of capital

15. Stocks vs. Flows A stock is a quantity measured at a point in time.
E.g., “The U.S. capital stock was $26 trillion on January 1, 2009.”
The bathtub example is the classic means of explaining stocks and flows, and appears in Chapter 2.
A flow is a quantity measured per unit of time.
E.g., “U.S. investment was $2.5 trillion during 2009.”

16. Stocks vs. Flows - examples
a person’s wealth
a person’s annual saving
Point out that a specific quantity of a flow variable only makes sense if you know the size of the time unit.
If someone tells you her salary is $5000 but does not say whether it is “per month” or “per year” or otherwise, then you’d have no idea what her salary really is.
A pitfall with flow variables is that many of them have a very standard time unit (e.g., per year). Therefore, people often omit the time unit: “John’s salary is $50,000.” And omitting the time unit makes it easy to forget that John’s salary is a flow variable, not a stock.
Another point: It is often the case that a flow variable measures the rate of change in a corresponding stock variable, as the examples on this slide (and the investment/capital example) make clear.
# of people with college degrees
# of new college graduates this year
the govt debt
the govt budget deficit

17. NOW YOU TRY: Stock or Flow?
the balance on your credit card statement
how much you study economics outside of class
the inflation rate
the unemployment rate
Number of people employed
Here are the answers, and explanations:
The balance on your credit card statement is a stock. (A corresponding flow would be the amount of new purchases on your credit card statement.)
How much you study is a flow. The statement “I study 10 hours” is only meaningful if we know the time period – whether 10 years per day, per week, per month, etc.
The size of your compact disc collection is a stock. (A corresponding flow would be how many CDs you buy per month.)
The inflation rate is a flow: we say “prices are increasing by 3.2% per year” or “by 0.4% per month.”
The unemployment rate is a stock: It’s the number of unemployed people divided by the number of people in the workforce. In contrast, the number of newly unemployed people per month would be a flow.

18. Government spending (G)
G includes all government spending on goods and services.
G excludes transfer payments (e.g., unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services.
Transfer payments are included in “government outlays,” but not in government spending.
People who receive transfer payments use these funds to pay for their consumption. Thus, we avoid double-counting by excluding transfer payments from G.

19. U.S. Government Spending, 2017Q2
$ billions
% of GDP
Govt spending
3,340
17.4
- Federal
1,257
2,083
742
515
Nondefense
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Third quarter advance estimate (released 12/23/2014)
Defense
- State & local

20. Net Exports: NX = EX – IM
def: the value of total exports (EX) minus the value of total imports (IM)
source: FRED Database, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
Before showing the data graph, the following explanation might be helpful:
Remember, GDP is the value of spending on our country’s output of goods & services.
Exports represent foreign spending on our country’s output, so we include exports.
Imports represent the portion of domestic spending (C, I, and G) that goes to foreign goods and services, so we subtract off imports.
NX, therefore, equals net spending by the foreign sector on domestically produced goods & services.

21. Question - Suppose a firm: produces $10 million worth of final goods
only sells $9 million worth
Does this violate the expenditure = output identity?
Correct answer to the question:
Unsold output adds to inventory, and thus counts as inventory investment – whether intentional or unplanned. Thus, it’s as if a firm “purchased” its own inventory accumulation.
Here’s where the “goods purchased for future use” definition of investment is handy: When firms add newly produced goods to their inventory, the “future use” of those goods, of course, is future sales.
Note, also, that inventory investment counts intentional as well as unplanned inventory changes. Thus, when firms sell fewer units than planned, the unsold units go into inventory and are counted as inventory investment. This explains why “output = expenditure” -- the value of unsold output is counted under inventory investment, just as if the firm “purchased” its own output. Remember, the definition of investment is goods bought for future use. With inventory investment, that future use is to give the firm the ability in the future to sell more than its output.

22. Why output = expenditure
Unsold output goes into inventory, and is counted as “inventory investment”…
…whether or not the inventory buildup was intentional.
In effect, we are assuming that firms purchase their unsold output.
GDP = Final Sales + Δ Inventory

23. GDP: An Important and versatile concept
GDP measures:
total income
total output
total expenditure
the sum of value-added at all stages in the production of final goods
This is why economists often use the terms income, output, expenditure, and GDP interchangeably.
This is why economists often use the terms income, output, expenditure, and GDP interchangeably.

24. GNP vs. GDP
Gross National Product (GNP): Total income earned by the nation’s factors of production, regardless of where located
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production, regardless of nationality
GNP = GDP + factor payments from abroad minus factor payments to abroad
Examples of factor payments: wages, profits, rent, interest & dividends on assets
Emphasize that the difference b/w GDP and GNP boils down to two things:
location of the economic activity, and ownership (domestic vs. foreign) of the factors of production.
From the perspective of the U.S., factor payments from abroad includes things like
wages earned by U.S. citizens working abroad
profits earned by U.S.-owned businesses located abroad
income (interest, dividends, rent, etc) generated from the foreign assets owned by U.S. citizens
Factor payments to abroad includes things like
wages earned by foreign workers in the U.S.
profits earned by foreign-owned businesses located in the U.S.
income (interest, dividends, rent, etc) that foreigners earn on U.S. assets
Chapter 3 introduces factor markets and factor prices. Unless you’ve already covered that material, it might be worth mentioning to your students that factor payments are simply payments to the factors of production, for example, the wages earned by labor.

25. GNP vs. GDP in select countries, 2007
Country
GNP
GDP
GNP – GDP (% of GDP)
Philippines
$157,087
$144,062
9.0%
Japan
$4,530,191
$4,384,255
3.3%
China
$3,229,841
$3,205,507
0.8%
United States
$13,827,201
$13,751,400
0.6%
Canada
$1,318,304
$1,329,885
–0.9%
South Africa
$274,141
$283,007
–3.1%
New Zealand
$125,936
$135,667
–7.2%
Peru
$98,625
$107,297
–8.1%
source: World Development Indicators, World Bank.
How to interpret the numbers in this table:
* In South Africa, GNP is 3.1% smaller than GDP. This sounds like a tiny number, but it means that about 3% of all the income generated in South Africa (or about $9 billion) is taken away and paid to foreigners. In Peru, about 8% of the value of domestic production is paid to foreigners.
* In the Philippines, GNP is 9% bigger than its GDP. This means that the income earned by the citizens of the Philippines is 9% larger than the value of production occurring within the country’s borders.
Teaching suggestion:
Point out a few countries with positive numbers. Ask your students to take a moment to think of possible reasons why GNP might exceed GDP in a country, and write them down. Point out a few countries with negative numbers. Ask your students to take a moment to think of possible reasons why a country’s GDP might be bigger than its GNP, and write them down. After students have had a chance to think of some reasons, ask for volunteers. (Better yet, have them pair up and compare answers with a classmate before volunteering their answers to the class.)
Reasons why GNP may exceed GDP:
* Country has done a lot of lending or investment overseas and is earning lots of income from these foreign investments (income on nationally-owned capital located abroad).
A significant number of citizens have left the country to work overseas (their income is counted in GNP, not GDP).
Reasons why GDP may exceed GNP:
* Country has done a lot of borrowing from abroad, or foreigners have done a lot of investment in the country (income earned by foreign-owned domestically-located capital). This is most likely why Mexico’s GDP > GNP.
* Country has a large immigrant labor force
GNP and GDP in millions of current U.S. dollars

26. GNP vs. GDP in Select Countries, 2012
Country
GNP
GDP
GNP – GDP (% of GDP)
Bangladesh
127,672
116,355
9.7
Japan
6,150,132
5,961,066
3.2
China
8,184,963
8,227,103
-0.5
United States
16,514,500
16,244,600
1.7
India
1,837,279
1,858,740
-1.2
Canada
1,821,424
1,779,635
2.3
Greece
250,167
248,939
0.5
Iraq
216,453
215,838
0.3
Ireland
171,996
210,636
-18.3
How to interpret the numbers in this table:
In Japan, GNP is 3.2% bigger than GDP. This means that the income earned by all Japanese citizens is 3.2% larger than the value of production occurring within Japan’s borders.
In India, GNP is 1.2% smaller than GDP. This means that 1.2% of all the income earned in India leaves the country and is paid to foreigners.
In Ireland, 18.3% of the value of domestic production is paid to foreigners.
Reasons GNP may exceed GDP:
Country has done a lot of lending or investment overseas and is earning lots of income from these foreign investments (income on nationally owned capital located abroad).
A significant number of citizens have left the country to work overseas; their income is counted in GNP, not GDP.
Reasons GDP may exceed GNP:
Country has done a lot of borrowing from abroad, or foreigners have done a lot of investment in the country (income earned by foreign-owned domestically located capital).
Country has a large immigrant labor force.
GNP and GDP in millions of current U.S. dollars.

27. Real vs. nominal GDP
GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced.
nominal GDP measures these values using current prices.
real GDP measure these values using the prices of a base year.

28. NOW YOU TRY: Real & Nominal GDP
2006
2007
2008 P Q
good A
$30
900
$31
1,000
$36
1,050
good B
$100
192
$102
200
205
Compute nominal GDP in each year.
Compute real GDP in each year using 2006 as the base year.

29. NOW YOU TRY: Answers
nominal GDP multiply Ps & Qs from same year 2006: $46,200 = $30  $100  : $51, : $58,300
real GDP multiply each year’s Qs by 2006 Ps 2006: $46, : $50, : $52,000 = $30  $100  205

30. Real GDP controls for inflation
Changes in nominal GDP can be due to:
changes in prices.
changes in quantities of output produced.
Changes in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities,
because real GDP is constructed using constant base-year prices.
Suppose from 2006 to 2007, nominal GDP rises by 10%. Some of this growth could be due to price increases, because an increase in the price of output causes an increase in the value of output, even if the real quantity remains the same.
Hence, to control for inflation, we use real GDP. Remember, real GDP is the value of output using constant base-year prices. If real GDP grows by 6% from 2006 to 2007, we can be sure that all of this growth is due to an increase in the economy’s actual production of goods and services, because the same prices are used to construct real GDP in 2006 and 2007.

31. GDP Deflator
Inflation rate: the percentage increase in the overall level of prices
One measure of the price level: GDP deflator
Definition:

32. NOW YOU TRY: GDP deflator and inflation rate
Nom. GDP
Real GDP
GDP deflator
Inflation rate
2006
$46,200
n.a.
2007
51,400
50,000
2008
58,300
52,000
Use your previous answers to compute the GDP deflator in each year.
Use GDP deflator to compute the inflation rate from 2006 to 2007, and from 2007 to 2008.

33. NOW YOU TRY: Answers Nominal GDP Real GDP GDP deflator Inflation rate
2006
$46,200
100.0
n.a.
2007
51,400
50,000
102.8
2.8%
2008
58,300
52,000
112.1
9.1%

34. Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes
1. For any variables X and Y,
percentage change in (X  Y )  percentage change in X percentage change in Y
These handy arithmetic tricks will be useful in many different contexts later in this book. For example, in the Quantity Theory of Money in chapter 4, they help us understand how the Quantity Equation, MV = PY, gives us a relation between the rates of inflation, money growth, and GDP growth.
The example on this slide uses
wage income = (hourly wage) x (number of hours worked)
Another example would be
revenue = price x quantity
EX: If your hourly wage rises 5% and you work 7% more hours, then your wage income rises approximately 12%.

35. Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes
2. percentage change in (X/Y )  percentage change in X  percentage change in Y
Again, we will see uses for this in many different contexts later in the textbook. For example, if your wage rises 10% while prices rise 6%, then your real wage – the purchasing power of your wage – rises by about 4%, because
real wage = (nominal wage)/(price level)
EX: GDP deflator = 100  NGDP/RGDP.
If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%, then the inflation rate is approximately 5%.

36. Chain-Weighted Real GDP
Over time, relative prices change, so the base year should be updated periodically.
In essence, chain-weighted real GDP updates the base year every year, so it is more accurate than constant-price GDP.
The textbook usually uses constant-price real GDP, because:
the two measures are highly correlated.
constant-price real GDP is easier to compute.

37. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A measure of the overall level of prices
Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Uses:
tracks changes in the typical household’s cost of living
adjusts many contracts for inflation (“COLAs”)
allows comparisons of dollar amounts over time
Regarding the comparison of dollar figures from different years:
If we want to know whether the average college graduate today is better off than the average college graduate of 1975, we can’t simply compare the nominal salaries, because the cost of living is so much higher now than in We can use the CPI to express the 1975 in “current dollars”, i.e. see what it would be worth at today’s prices.
Also: when the price of oil (and hence gasoline) shot up in 2000, some in the news reported that oil prices were even higher than in the 1970s. This was true, but only in nominal terms. If you use the CPI to adjust for inflation, the highest oil price in 2000 is still substantially less than the highest oil prices of the 1970s.

38. How the BLS constructs the CPI
1. Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumer’s “basket” of goods
2. Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basket
3. CPI in any month equals

39. The composition of the CPI’s “basket”
Each number is the percent of the “typical” household’s total expenditure.
source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Ask students for examples of how the breakdown of their own expenditure differs from that of the typical household shown here. Then, ask students how the typical elderly person’s expenditure might differ from that shown here. (This is relevant because the CPI is used to give Social Security COLAs to the elderly; however, the elderly spend a much larger fraction of their income on medical care, a category in which prices grow much faster than the CPI.)
The website listed above also gives a very fine disaggregation of each category, which enables students to compare their own spending on compact discs, beer, or cell phones to that of the “typical” household.

40. Why the CPI may overstate inflation
Substitution bias: The CPI uses fixed weights, so it cannot reflect consumers’ ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.
Introduction of new goods: The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights.
Unmeasured changes in quality: Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured.

41. The size of the CPI’s bias
In 1995, a Senate-appointed panel of experts estimated that the CPI overstates inflation by about 1.1% per year.
So the BLS made adjustments to reduce the bias.
Now, the CPI’s bias is probably under 1% per year.

42. CPI vs. GDP Deflator Prices of capital goods:
included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)
excluded from CPI
Prices of imported consumer goods:
included in CPI
excluded from GDP deflator
The basket of goods:
CPI: fixed
GDP deflator: changes every year

43. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index - PCE deflator
Another measure of the price level: Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the ratio of nominal to real consumer spending
How the PCE is like the CPI: - only includes consumer spending - includes imported consumer goods
How the PCE is like the GDP deflator: - the “basket” changes over time
- picks up substitution effect
This slide corresponds to new material in the 9th edition.

44. CPI and PCE CPI based on what households buy
Out of pocket expenditures
PCE based on what business firms sell
Includes things like employer-provided health insurance, which is not included in CPI
The Fed prefers the PCE

45. The GDP deflator, CPI, and PCE deflator
Source:
Series GDPDEF, DPCERD3Q086SBEA, and CPIAUCSL
GDP deflator

46. Categories of the population
employed working at a paid job
unemployed not employed but looking for a job in last 4 weeks
labor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services
Sum of all employed plus unemployed persons
not in the labor force not employed, not looking for work

47. Three important labor force concepts
unemployment rate percentage of the labor force that is unemployed
labor force participation rate the fraction of the adult population that “participates” in the labor force
employment population ratio employment divided by adult population

48. NOW YOU TRY: Computing labor statistics
U.S. adult population by group, Aug 2016
Number employed = million
Number unemployed = 7.8 million
Adult population = million
Use the above data to calculate
the labor force
the number of people not in the labor force
the labor force participation rate
the unemployment rate
Employment population ratio
source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

49. Answers, August 2016
data: E = 151.6, U = 7.8, POP = 253.8
labor force LF = E +U = = 159.4
not in labor force NILF = POP – L = – = 94.4
unemployment rate U/LF x 100% = (7.8/159.4) x 100% = 4.9%
labor force participation rate LF/POP x 100% = (159.4/ 253.8) x 100% = 62.8%

50. Labor Statistics Computing the unemployment rate for December 2013.
Labor force: million
Employed: million
Unemployed: million
Adult Population million
Unemployment rate =

51. Labor Statistics LFPR was 62.8% in Dec 2013.
LF/POP = / = .628.
The LFPR in Dec was .636 (63.6%).
If LFPR had remained at the 2012 level, the unemployment rate in Dec would be much higher:
LF = (.636 x )
and U/LF = 12.34/ = 7.8%

52. The Duration of Unemployment
Average Duration of Unemployment, 1970–2009
Weeks
1970
8.6
1984
18.2
1997
15.8
1971
11.3
1985
15.6
1998
14.5
1972
12.0
1986
15.0
1999
13.4
1973
10.0
1987
2000
12.6
1974
9.8
1988
13.5
2001
13.1
1975
14.2
1989
11.9
2002
16.6
1976
1990
2003
19.2
1977
14.3
1991
13.7
2004
19.6
1978
1992
17.7
2005
18.4
1979
10.8
1993
18.0
2006
16.8
1980
1994
18.8
2007
1981
1995
2008
17.9
1982
1996
16.7
2009
24.4
1983
20.0

53. Problems in Measuring Unemployment
Official measure of unemployment
Underestimates the extent of unemployment
Treatment of involuntary part-time workers
Treatment of discouraged workers
Involuntary part-time workers
Individuals who would like a full-time job but who are working only part time - they are employed
Discouraged workers
Individuals who would like a job but have given up searching for one

54. Problems in Measuring Unemployment
BLS policy: discouraged worker if
Not working
Searched for a job at some point in the last 12 months
Currently want a job
State that the only reason they are not currently searching for work is their belief that no job is available for them

55. discouraged-worker effect –
The decline in the official measure of the unemployment rate that results when people who want to work but cannot find jobs grow discouraged and stop looking, thus dropping out of the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force.
It lowers the unemployment rate!
Looking only at the unemployment rate can be
mis-leading.

56. Problems in Measuring Unemployment
Marginally attached to the labor force
Meet the first three requirements of discouraged workers
But not necessarily the fourth:
They can give any reason for not currently searching for work
Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached.

57. Alternative Measures of Employment Conditions
The Six “U”s
Six different unemployment rates
Each labeled with a “U” followed by a number
“U-3”: the official unemployment rate

58. The Six “U”s
Table A-15

59. Alternative Measures of Employment Conditions
The employment-population ratio
Total employment (from the household survey) divided by the total population over age 16
Tracks the fraction of the adult population that is working
not affected by job-searching behavior

60. Employment - Population Ratio

62. Projected Aging Trend

63. Labor Force Participation Rate:
Overall in Blue Along With Age in Red

64. CEA Study