Cadet Ovidijus Kuzminas

Cadet Ovidijus Kuzminas
Semester Project: Aqua Terrorism and GIS Cadet Ovidijus Kuzminas

WARNING This project is NOT directed against NYC. Modeling terrorism attack is just a way to show unsecured places in waterworks systems.

Contents Water Demands New York City Waterworks system
Generation Bulk transmission Distribution Use Waste management History of Attacks Against / Accidents in Water Systems Potential Agents, Pathogens and other destruction forms Aqua-attack vs New York City. Place / Method / Consequences Resilience model VMI Water System Outcomes

Water demands (1/4) Water is a liquid which is essential to human being just to exist. Water gives opportunity to dissolve things (such as body waste) and is required for metabolism processes. Human body consists of up to 70% of water.

Water demands (2/4) Daily hydration (recommended):
Men 3.9 l (130 ounces) Women 2.9 l (95 ounces) People can survive up to 3 days without water Dehydration – human body’s water loss. 2-5% dehydration: first symptoms 5-6% dehydration: nausea, headache, grogginess 10-15%: spastic muscles, vision dim, painful urination, delirium >15%: fatal organs fail (starting with kidneys)

WATER DEMANDS (3/4) Drinking water is not only used for drinking. Most of it goes to electricity generation and irrigation systems. In total, daily demand per person can reach gallons per day (considering to location and season).

Map represents daily demand by region (data is old).
Water Demands (4/4) Map represents daily demand by region (data is old).

New york city (1/3) New York (also called New York City) is located on the north-west coast of US. NYC is settled in It has area of 1,214 km2 (468.9 sq mi).

NEW YORK CITY (2/3)

NEW york city (3/3) *New York has the highest population in US and is in the 24th place worldwide.

Waterworks system Infrastructures are network systems that could be described by Conceptual model (Grizzly Bears Don’t Use Water Closets). It has 6 components: Generate Bulk transmission Distribution User Waste Coordination However, in this project I won’t use coordination because it is not highly related to functionality.

Generation (1/5) Generation describes all processes needed to create a final product in bulk. Drinkable water could be gained from any water source: lakes, rivers, ground water. Even the salty water from oceans or seas could be used after evaporation. In some cases water is enough pure to be drinkable without any procedures, for example: ground water which is pumped by the boreholes (it depends how clean is the ground water). Ph. D. Steven Hart’s material from classes 473X “Infrastructures” Brian Hayes “Infrastructure” p

Generation (2/5) Otherwise, the water should be purified and it is done by different forms: filtering, microorganisms and other techniques. Filtering is a procedure when water passes different filter layers, for example: coal – sand – small stones. Chloride could be used for cleaning from bacteria. Mostly, when the microorganisms are used, they just float on the surface so they could be easily removed. Those procedures take place in Water treatment plants. Ph. D. Steven Hart’s material from classes 473X “Infrastructures” Brian Hayes “Infrastructure” p

Generation (3/5) However, Water Treatment Plants do not purify water totally. Most viruses are destroyed, but all the chemicals stay in water after treatment (here we face first problems related to water systems): Ph. D. Steven Hart’s material from classes 473X “Infrastructures” Brian Hayes “Infrastructure” p

Generation IN NYC (4/5) NYC gets water from 6 different reservoirs. Reservoirs capacity is 550 billion gallons (while daily demand average is 1.4 billion gallons). It means, that attacking one reservoir is not a big thing for the whole system.

Generation in NYC (5/5) New York City got water from reservoir and the only treatment is chlorination because water is really pure in those areas. That means NYC does not need any Drinkable Water Treatment Plants (DWTP). This waterworks system has no equivalent worldwide because they got water from 100 miles remote reservoirs (incredibly long distance for bulk transmission).

Bulk transmission (1/3) Bulk transmission is moving large quantities of generated product, long distances with limited access. The water is almost everywhere, so the transmission of water in high distances could be questionable. However, there are facilities that help to transport water such as aqueducts, canals and pipelines. Imagine a pipeline which provides water to a city where live more than a million of people (same with NYC). It should be huge or have high flow rate. However, it is necessary to have huge pumps (more pumping stations along the transmission line) for that. Ph. D. Steven Hart’s material from classes 473X “Infrastructures” Brian Hayes “Infrastructure” p

Bulk Transmission in NYC (2/3)
It is seen from the scale that bulk transmission is done in high distances. What is surprising, NYC use only several aqueducts which are backbone for water transmission (moreover, there are no alternative routes even with lower flow rate, for example: pipelines). It is enormous problem for entire city.

Bulk Transmission in NYC (3/3)
Transmission of average 1.4 billion gallons per day is done by three aqueducts: The New Croton aqueduct (built in 1890) The Catskill aqueduct (built in 1916) The Dalaware aqueduct (built in 1945) By last two aqueducts 90% of water are transmitted. So, if we took out those two, system will just fail.

Distribution (1/2) Distribution is moving small amounts of generated product, small distances directly to the user. Worldwide, the water is distributed by pipes using two different technologies: building towers or having pumps. When we build a tower it has to be higher than the highest building to which the water is distributed because it is the only way to have a water pressure in it. Otherwise the water just does not flow. For better water pressure (if there are lots of users) there should be more than one water tower. Pumps are more effective way in large communities (NYC is not an exception), but it requires having pumps with really good technical specifications. Ph. D. Steven Hart’s material from classes 473X “Infrastructures” Brian Hayes “Infrastructure” p

Distribution in NYC (2/2)
When water comes from reservoirs to NYC, it moves through the tunnels underground. There are 3 tunnels in NYC and they work is based on gravity (pumping stations are not required). However, the last phase of distribution where water goes directly to the user is done by pipelines (as everywhere else).

Use (1/2) Use is consumption of a product by a paying customer. In the beggining of this presentation I covered several questions: When do we use water? Is it possible to be without it? 3 days is the longest period for human being without the water. Every day human should get 3-5 liters of water (some of it is gain from the meal) and it is only for the body processes. It is said that every person need up to 500 liters per day if we count in bathing, showering, dishwasher’s and washing machine’s consumption, hands washing, preparation of food and etc. Ph. D. Steven Hart’s material from classes 473X “Infrastructures” Brian Hayes “Infrastructure” p

Use in NYC (2/2) As I mentioned before, in NYC water demand is 1.4 billion gallons per day (167 gallons per person). Most of it ensures industrial requirements and only small percent goes to residential use. However, there are lots of potable water fountains across NYC that could be possible terrorism attacks’ places.

Waste Management (1/2) Waste management is ignoring, disposing, recycling, reusing or reporpusing waste. Used water goes to the drainage system. It is also done by pipes but it is not so necessary to keep it clean. That’s why it is made by the same sewerage canals which are located underground. However, the history has shown that bad drainage system was the main reason of London cholera outbreak in 19th century. Another important thing is: what people do with the water wastes. Actually, it is purified (in Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP)) and could be used many times in the future. Ph. D. Steven Hart’s material from classes 473X “Infrastructures” Brian Hayes “Infrastructure” p

Waste Management in Nyc (2/2)
There are 14 Waste Water Treatments Plants in NYC waterworks systems. They are capable to treat billion gallons per day. Actually, NYC has so powerful WWTP’s system, that it would be really a big challenge to destroy waste management.

History of Attacks Against / Accidents in Water Systems (1/8)
Chrisso, Greece ( BC) Athenians polluted Pleistrus river which was going to Chrisso city with roots of helleborus during the siege. After this enemy forces had illnesses and were defeated. Wallachia, Romania (1492) Prince Vlad the Impaler polluted his own wells in the city of Wallachia to prevent invading Ottoman Turk adversaries.

Manchuria, China ( ) During Japan invasion, Japan force unit 731 poisoned wells and reservoirs with typhoid and other pathogens. Bohemia, Chezh Republic (1945) Germans polluted a large reservoir in the northwest of Bohemia with sewage.

North Carolina, U.S. (1977) North Carolina reservoir was polluted with unknown chemical agent. It is said, that terrorists had to remove valves and safety caps to bring in the chemicals. However, reservoir had to be shut down.

Pittsburgh, U.S. (1980) The main reservoir was polluted with weedkillers. Dalles, U.S. (1985) Religion cult called Rajneesh planned to contaminate Dalles’ main reservoir with Salmonella, however they spread this biological agent on salad bars causing 751 Salmonella outbrakes.

Alaska, U.S. (1992) Because of human error (activating fluorine pump without activating water pump or fluorine siphoning to the well) in small village of Alaska killed one person and poisoned almost 300.

Bogota, Columbia (2002) The Revoliutonary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC) exploded one pipe which was the most significant by providing water to Bogota. Sri Lanka (2006) Tamil Tiger rebels cut water distribution links to government held cities.

History of Attacks Against / Accidents in Water Systems (1/x)
Illinois, U.S. (2011) Hackers managed to remotely shut down one of water pump station which cause water distribution problems.

History of Attacks Against / Accidents in Water Systems (1/x)
West Virginia, U.S. (2014) From a storage tank of MCHM leaked 7,500 gallons to Elk River. 300,000 residents were asked to not use water from the taps due to possible threats. Map shows counties that were affected by this accident:

Potential Agents, Pathogenes and other destruction forms (1/5)
Chemicals Biological agent Radioactive Physical destruction

Chemicals Most of the chemicals are not purged in the WTP’s. That gives opportunity to use huge variety of deadly substences, such as: Chlorine (750 mg/m³ kills in 5 minutes) Chloropicrin (2.5 g/m³ kills in 1 minute) Phosgene (0.4 mg/m³ kills in 5 minutes) Sarin (200 mg/m³ kills in 2 minutes) Tabun (0.01 mg/m³ is lethal) and millions of others... cameochemicals.noaa.gov/chemical/5194

Biological agents: Only viruses could pass through WTP filtration systems. However, if we put them into distribution phase, they will definitely reach the users. Biological agents examples: Anthrax (tasteless, invisible, could kill in few days) Ebola (90% mortality rate of infected human beings) Plague (kill within 24 hours) Tularemia (bacteria is able to survive in water for weeks) Nipah virus (kills 70% of infected people, there is no cure) ...

Radioactive materials: Radioactive materials are also chemicals. However, I would like to exclude them because those chemicals could cause long-term consequences. In most cases, radiation does not kill immediately, but it causes various health problems (such as cancers and cells mutation). Possible isotopes for attack: Plutonium , 244 (radioactive for at least 6,500 years) Uranium , 238 (radioactive for at least 69 years) Polonium (radioactive for at least 138 days) Others...

Physical destruction Polluting by toxic materials is not the only way to destroy water system. It is even easier to do physically destroying hubs (main objects of system) or backbones (main links in system). It could be done from manually with a hammer to using explosives.

Aqua-attack vs new york city. Place / method / consequenses (1/16)
Generation Transmission Distribution Usage Waste management Place Chemicals Biological agents Radioactive Physical destruction Method

Generation Chemicals Threat There are 6 reservoirs which supports NYC. Any of them could be polluted with chemicals and because there are no filtration systems for chemicals – they probably go to the city. However, the only way to destroy the waterworks systems definitely is to pollute all 6 basins at once (it is really difficult to do). Possible consequences: I think system realize that there are chemical spill in the system before they reach the city. However, it could be very difficult to clean up system after attack (depend on chemical material and amounts of it).

Aqua-attack vs new york city. Place / method / consequences (3/16)
Generation Bio agents Light threat Biological agents are not the best method to pollute the waterworks system in generation phase because they could be filtrated. Possible consequences: Most biological agents will be just filtrated. However, if we can send the virus through this phase, it could cause even water system’s “blackout” for months (till viruses will be killed).

Aqua-attack vs new york city. Place / method / consequences (4/16)
Generation Radioactive Threat There are 6 reservoirs which supports NYC. Any of them could be polluted with radioactive materials and filtration process won’t help if radioactive substances are in really small pieces. Possible consequences: If we talk only about generation phase, I think polluted reservoir will not be ever in use (depends on element’s half life). If we assume that radioactive materials reached the city, it might cause even totally evacuation of NYC because pipelines will absorb huge amounts of radiation.

Generation Destruction No threat There are 6 reservoirs which supports NYC. Any of them could be destroyed physically. Possible consequences: It could be a huge environmental (such as flooded plains) consequences but NYC remains safe.

Transmission Chemicals Threat There are 3 main aqueducts which provide water to NYC. What is more, two of them carry 90 percent of the daily demand. If we spill chemicals there, they probably reach the city. It is much bigger problem than spilling chemicals into reservoirs because the threat is closer to the city. Possible consequences: Polluting two aqueducts at once could lead to total destruction of waterworks. Even if only one aqueducts is polluted, it may be very difficult to clean the entire system from chemicals afterwards.

Transmission Bio agents Threat Comparing to biological agents threat to generation, here threat is higher because transmission means that filtration system is already passed through and bio agents will not be filtrated. Possible consequences: Polluting two aqueducts at once could lead to total destruction of waterworks. Even if only one aqueducts is polluted, it may be very difficult to clean the entire system from biological agents afterwards. On the other hand, some biological agents could be easily removed by the users by boiling water.

Transmission Radioactive Threat Comparing to radioactive materials threat to generation, here threat is just a little bit higher because transmission means that city with distribution system is closer. Possible consequences: Polluting two aqueducts at once could lead to total destruction of waterworks (because they could not be used any more). I think, polluting in this phase really cause irreversible consequences.

Transmission Destruction Threat There are 3 main aqueducts which provide water to NYC. What is more, two of them carry 90 percent of daily demand. From this point of view, it could be easy to destroy bulk transmission system. However, I think that exploding aqueducts is inefficient way, it would be better to choose pump stations, shafts or other facilities in transmission. Possible consequences: water system “blackout” till it will be restored.

Distribution Chemicals Bio agents Threat When we talk about distribution phase, it is the closest to the user. If we pollute it, there are no doubts that somebody will be poisoned. However, only small region could be polluted this way and spread out won’t be massive. Possible consequences: It could be very difficult to clean up system after attack. Moreover, polluting pipelines in NYC is a good way to spread panic among people because toxic results could be very quick if we use specific chemicals or bio agents. On the other hand, some biological agents could be easily removed by the users by boiling water.

Distribution Radioactive Light threat Threat Radioactive isotopes are not as toxic as chemicals or biological agents for immediate action. Moreover, it might be inefficient to use radioactive materials for polluting small area. However, there are 9 million citizens among NYC and radioactive could also work not very bad in high-populated districts. Possible consequences: Radioactive materials won’t kill as many as chemicals and biological agents could do instantly. However, it might spread fear very well, because people who are poisoned with radioactive materials have to suffer a lot (diarrhea, puking, flu, dehydration).

Distribution Destruction No threat There is no point to destroy pipelines in the city because there are many alternative routes. Possible consequences: water distribution “blackout” for small area.

Usage Chemicals Bio agents Light threat Threat I strongly believe, that it is the easiest way to perform terrorism attack because terrorists are able to pin small piece of chemicals or bio agents to the drinking fountain tap. Possible consequences: lots of deaths in public areas, panic among the people (that is what terrorists want).

Usage Radioactive Light threat Radioactive isotopes are not as toxic as chemicals or biological agents and they do not kill instantly. Moreover, it is very inefficient to use radioactive materials for polluting one tap. Possible consequences: Radioactive materials won’t kill as many as chemicals and biological agents could immediately. However, it might spread fear very well, because people who are poisoned with radioactive materials have to suffer a lot.

Usage Destruction No threat There is no point to destroy taps in the city. Possible consequences: none.

Waste management Chemicals Bio agents Radioactive Destruction No threat There are 14 waste water treatment plants in NYC. However, that water is not used any more in the water supply system. I believe, that there is no threat to human beings if terrorists destroy even all the WWTP. Possible consequences: environmental pollution and no threat to citizens.

Resilience model (1/6) Infrastructure Resilience – the ability to absorb or mitigate the impact of a hazard event while maintaining and restoring essential services (TISP, 2008). There are three phases in resilience model: Plan Defend the Hubs (critical nodes) Act Fix the Links Restore Survive Disruptions I will describe ACT phase’s points in detail to provide how secure is NYC water system and how it could be improved.

Resilience model. Defend the hubs (2/6)
There are 6 reservoirs that absolutely should be counted as hubs. Can you imagine how they are secured? If we can call it security, some of them have little fence. I can’t imagine terrorist who could be discouraged with the fence seen in the picture. I think that reservoirs should be isolated from any human activity. It could be done with the fence as well but why not two meters fence with barbed wire on the top? Moreover, I think that there should be some guarding patrols.

Resilience model. Defend the hubs (3/6)
Aqueducts are also dramatically significant to the system. Believe it or not, but they are also not protected and possible attack places even scream about themselves. How to improve security: I believe that aqueducts have to be unreachable. Every unlocked or public available access point has to be strictly controlled and monitored by law enforcement institutions. Pressure measures among the aqueduct could help to identify attack and aqueduct should have sections that could be closed independently.

Resilience model. Fix the links (4/6)
There are two types of links in the system: aqueducts and pipelines. Both of them could be polluted or destroyed. How much time could it take to fix the link? Pipelines could be fixed momentary. But what about aqueduct? It is not a pipe. Example: 2.5 miles repair will take 7 years (according to the article in notes). It means that it could be extremely difficult to fix in short time period. I think it would be very important to have some alternative routes (at least one more aqueduct that gives opportunity to fix other transmission links).

Resilience model. Survive disruptions (5/6)
I would like to think that NYC government have some kind of plan how to survive any hazard. I will provide several possible solutions: Providing drinking water in plastic bottles. To provide drinking water for all citizens (just to survive): 8.4 millions x 2 liters / day = 16.8 million liters 16.8 million liters = tons tons could be transported with 840 cargo trucks. And it is just daily demand for drinking... That number is insanely high. Theoretically, it might be possible to get water from 5-6 states with trucks, but I think that during massive attack it is not the best way. However, if we talk about partial pollution or “blackout”, it could be really good issue.

Resilience model. Survive disruptions (6/6)
Another issue is simpler. Every household should have filters (such as LifeStraw). It could help even during the “blackout”. Let’s assume, that government wants to buy LifeStraw for every citizen: 8.4 millions * 20 dollars = 168 million dollars I think it is very small sum for surviving any terrorism attack or system’s hazard.

VMI WATER SYSTEM Process VMI Generation
Lexington’s WTP (modern, comparing to even biggest cities) Bulk transmission Pipelines (unknown) Distribution Pipelines (old, if they are not changed from 1986 report) Usage Bathing, laundry services, food producing, drinking Waste management Lexington’s WWTP Major threats: WTP is the only facility that supports with water so if it is destroyed – VMI doesn’t have any WTP pollution means VMI system’s pollution. It is not clearly known, but I bet that there is only one pipe for bulk transmission from WTP to VMI. If it is so, system “blackout” is possible by destroying the pipeline anywhere before it comes to VMI. If we assume that there is only one pipe for bulk transmission, that means polluting it leads to VMI water system’s destruction. Full-Scale Test Program for a Shower Waste Water Recycling System: Technical Evaluation (1986)

Outcomes Without water, life is impossible. However, people do not see any threats in water providing systems. Sometimes, it is very easy to identify problems just by looking at the situation from the terrorist point of view. I am not engineer and still found enough weaknesses which could lead to NYC evacuation. It means, that not only government, but every person do not realize how easily water system could be violated. I really believe, that owning filter is one of the best ways to survive any kind of tragedy related to waterworks.

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