1. SDG Monitoring Challenges in the Arab Region: A Focused Examination of Mortality Data & Measurement
Romesh Silva, Ph.D.
Demographic and Social Statistics Section, Statistics Division
Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
United Nations
SDG Indicator Preparedness Workshop
Amman, Jordan
May 8, 2016

2. Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness
Outline
From MDGs to SDGs
The Case of SDG Target 3.2: Under-5 Mortality Rate
Challenges of Measurement of SDG Measurement
Implications for National Statistical Systems
Need for data integration of multiple sources
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

3. Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness
1. From MDGs to SDGs
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

4. Progress towards Health-related MDGs
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

5. Expansive Nature of SDGs
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

6. Broader Range of Health-related SDGs
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

7. 2. The Case of SDG Target 3.2: Under-5 Mortality Rate
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

8. Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness
Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems are recognized as the preferred source of official mortality statistics
United Nations, 2014
Design Principles of CRVS
Universal
Continuous
Permanent
Compulsory
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

9. Mortality & Vital Registration Paradox
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

10. Heavy Reliance on Surveys & Censuses in Many Countries
Qatar: Under-5 Mortality Rate
Sudan: Under-5 Mortality Rate
Main approaches:
Direct Measurement
Civil Registration Data: Direct Calculation
Household Survey: Full Birth History
Indirect Measurement
Census or Household Survey: Summary Birth History
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

11. Qatar: Under-5 Mortality Rate
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

12. Sudan: Under-5 Mortality Rate
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

13. Current Status of CRVS Systems
Source: Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, World Health Organization, 2013.
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

14. Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness
Heavy reliance on non-CRVS sources by UN when estimating summary mortality measures
Heavy reliance on survey-based data for mortality estimation in Saudia, Iraq and Jordan
In states with dysfunctional registration systems Sudan, Libya, Lebanon, and Morocco) reliance on summary mortality statistics derived from survey/census-based child mortality estimates
In Tunisia, Egypt, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Syria – use of vital registration. But some uncertainty about the quality and completeness of the underlying death registration system data, as discussed in yesterday’s sessions on the WHO Rapid/Comprehensive Assessments results.
heavy reliance on surveys and modeled estimates for WPP mortality estimates
===> ultimately need to remain focused on strengthening statistical systems
          shifting the foundation of stat systems away from ad-hoc surveys or international surveys (DHS/MICS) and towards pop.census and registration systems
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

15. SDGs: Additional Measurement Challenge of Within Country Differentials
“Leave no one behind”
Between Country and within country measurement
The overall health SDG calls for healthy lives for all across all ages, positioning equity as a core , cross-cutting theme
Target 17.8, which calls for efforts to build capacity to enable data disaggregation by a number of stratifying factors, including income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, etc.
Disaggregated data enable policy- makers to identify vulnerable populations and direct resources accordingly. 
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

16. A Tiered + Flexible SDG Indicator Framework
The framework of indicators was adopted as the initial framework, and
the Inter-Agency Expert Group on SDG indicators (IAEG-SDGs) was asked to continue its work on refining the indicators:
Establish a Tier system according to availability and the level of specification of indicators
Develop methodologies for indicators in Tier III
Work on definitions and standards to be agreed at the international level with a view to guaranteeing international comparability.
The 47th Session of the UN Statistical Commission recognised that
the framework of indicators is intended for global reporting and some indicators may not be applicable in the national contexts; and
Indicators for regional national and sub-national levels shall be developed at the regional and national levels.
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

17. 3. Challenges of Measurement of SDG Measurement
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

18. Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness
Follow-up & Review when Civil Registration is Incomplete and/or Deficient
Design Implications for National Statistics System:
Timing of Household Surveys (and Censuses)
Inclusion of Full Birth History or Summary Birth History Modules
And new survey modules (for more detailed age ranges, etc.)
Data integration of multiple data sources
Leveraging of rich demographic/SES covariate info
Use of statistical techniques for subnational analysis (e.g. small area estimation)
Long-term improvement of CRVS System
Short/Medium term usage of (Subnational) CR data (e.g. urban areas)
Romesh Silva Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

19. Thank you Romesh Silva, Ph.D
Demographic and Social Statistics Section, Statistics Division
Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
United Nations
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