1. Comments about Heininger’s questions
Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration
Comments about Heininger’s questions
Quarterly Measurement of the Effect of International Migration: the Now-cast Population of Spain
National Statistical Institute of Spain (INE)
D.G. Statistical Processes and Infrastructure
Ignacio Duque
Seminar on Measuring Population Movement And integration in a Globalized World, 12 June 2008, Paris
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

2. Migration flux from Population Register.
Main question: changes in registration of immigrants that could affect to the statistical outputs.
Padrón Population Register stocks and general procedures of immigrants.
Migration flux from Population Register.
Flux of immigrants used in Population Now Cast (and stocks calculated).
Other aspects.
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

3. ° No changes in Laws or in administrative o detailed procedure.
a) Padrón Population Register stocks and immigrants registration (I)
° No changes in Laws or in administrative o detailed procedure.
° Improved situation in centralized data base checks.
° More important role of Population Register as general information of usual residence.
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

4. a) Padrón Population Register stocks and immigrants registration (II)
Well known figures of migrants remaining stock in Spain (from our population register)
Incredible and fast and increase of foreign and foreign born population.
From less than one to near five millions
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

5. b) Migration flux from Population Register (I)
Same source: Padrón Population Register
International immigrants and emigrants recorded yearly
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

6. c) Flux of immigrants used in Population Now Cast (I)
No changes on definition of movements considered international immigrants from Population Register.
Slow introduction of estimation of delayed and undeclared deregistration from “expiry procedure
As you know very well the figures of usual residence population are the cornerstone of statistical systems
Labor Force Survey and National Accounts ar very sensitive to even small fluctuation of inhabitants
We have to develop “bridges” to pass from an old to a more developed stages
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

7. c) Flux of immigrants used in Population Now Cast (II)
Our objective is to use intensively the big advantages of new system.
Maintain the coherence and confidence.
Produce very updated population figures
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

8. d) Monitoring quality (I)
Annual checks of methodology parameters Now Cast
A and sex structure of immigrants
We review continually the Now Cast parameters: sex and age structure
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

9. d) Monitoring quality (II)
Annual checks of methodology parameters
Net migration rates between provinces
Looking at provinces differences
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

10. d) Monitoring quality (III)
los Now-Casts por provincia, sexo y año
d) Monitoring quality (III)
Annual checks of methodology parameters
Standardised differences by provinces
And the final effects of all factors
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

11. Comparison Padrón with independent sources: LFS sample (not weighted)
d) Monitoring quality (IV)
Comparison Padrón with independent sources: LFS sample (not weighted)
We are planning more ambitious projects for:
More consistent interchanges
How to improve the coverage of EU citizens in Spain
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

12. Improving coverage and quality of the Padrón Population Register
d) Monitoring quality (V)
Improving coverage and quality of the Padrón Population Register
In order to avoid an overestimation of the group of all non-EU citizens not holding a permanent residence permit a specific methodology has been introduced: the so-called ‘expiry procedure’. More than 3 million people was involved since 2005 and the Padron updated the results
Moreover, every Spanish citizen leaving the country has to register in consulate registers and are thereafter systematically deregistered in the Padrón.
We are planning more ambitious projects for:
More consistent interchanges
How to improve the coverage of EU citizens in Spain
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain

13. Coverage and quality in an International context in European Union:
d) Monitoring quality (VI)
Coverage and quality in an International context in European Union:
No guidelines from Eurostat: difficulties of measure the quality of a register.
The Spanish information is in an improving path:
# Better than systems based on classic census and passenger surveys.
# Better than countries at the first stages of building a modern population registers
- We are not in front of an statistical artefact. It’s a phenomenon measured with accurate, but not perfect, instruments.
Quarterly Measurement Effect Foreign Migrations Spain