1. Will the economy turn upside down in 2017?
…What to expect for the US, Oregon, and Portland
SOREDI
January 2017
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

2. Economy Rebounded Late 2016/early2015 weakness appears to be abating.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

3. Economy Continues Upward Path
No recession in the near term. Manufacturing activity still the odd indicator.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

4. Dollar On The Rise, Again
Will take some steam out of exports.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

5. Inventory Correction Easing
Firms look to have regained a hold on inventories. Should boost growth.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

6. Investment Stabilizing?
Capital goods orders find their bottom. Higher oil prices should help.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

7. Manufacturing On The Mend?
Survey says “yes”.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

8. Service Sector Strong
Service sector soften in 2015/6 but is bouncing back in recent months.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

9. Consumer Plows Ahead
Some softening in the pace of gains, but consistent with slower economic growth.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

10. Housing Rebounding Single family housing still has room to grow.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

11. A Threat To Housing?
Mortgage rates climb higher, may help curtail home price appreciation.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

12. Closing the Gap
The economy is nearly as estimates of potential output…
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

13. Full Employment?
With output near potential, labor market near full employment.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

14. Still, Some Room Remains
Still some residual underemployment in the labor market, but getting better.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

15. Job Growth Slowing
Job growth peaked in late Slowing as expected as economy approaches full employment.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

16. Labor Supply Jumps
Labor force growth picks up, but gains likely to be short lived as demographics kick in again.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

17. Expect Trade Deficit To Widen
With the US economy near full employment, the trade deficit will be a pressure relief valve.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

18. Gotta Pay More! Wage growth fastest since 2009.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

19. Gotta Pay More!
Wages surging for workers continuously employed for 12 months.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

20. Still Limited Inflation Pressures
Inflation running at 1.6% - below Fed’s target.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

21. Oregon Keeps Truckin’ Along
Job growth strong, but softening somewhat like national numbers.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

22. Oregon Keeps Truckin’ Along
Still, Oregon continues to maintain its traditional outperformance relative to US.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

23. Underlying Indicators Solid
Nothing to see here. Move along, folks.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

24. Welcome Rebounds These two indicators were shaky. Until now.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

25. Growth Expected To Continue…
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

26. ….At An Above-Average Pace
First quarter 2014 was an aberration, underlying growth remains slow and steady.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

27. Could It All Fall Apart? Estimate cost of a trade war.
Source: PIIE Briefing 16-6: Assessing Trade Agendas in the US Presidential Campaign
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

28. Medford Looking Solid Housing permits trending upward – but slowly.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

29. Jobs Surpass Previous Peak!
Watch for revisions that might smooth noise.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

30. Above Average Growth Higher levels of permits would lift the measure.
Timothy A. Duy …. …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/