0. Enrollment Projections and Degree Estimates of Public Institutions
Update to Resources & Planning Committee

1. Background and Summary
Staff worked with institutions to streamline projection model and reduce burden. Part of this effort limited the enrollment projections and degree estimates to four years instead of six.
In the Fall of 2016, public institutions met 97% of projected enrollment.
For the academic year , institutions awarded 105% of the degrees estimated for that year.
To date, we have awarded 24,884 cumulative additional undergraduate degrees to instate students and are on track to achieve 115,220 for the TJ21 goal (beginning 2010).
To date, we have awarded a total of 176,104 undergraduate degrees and certificates towards Commonwealth’s goal of 1.5 million awards (beginning 2015).

2. Undergraduate Enrollment

3. Total Diploma Graduates Total Graduates & Completers
Recent HS Grads, FTIC
School Year
Advanced
Standard
Modified
Special
Total Diploma Graduates
GED
Certificate
Total Graduates & Completers
47,329
35,946
1,814
2,307
87,399
2,692
300
90,391
47,872
35,357
1,538
2,202
86,972
2,284
247
89,503
47,943
34,587
1,556
2,279
86,366
1,402
363
88,131
47,956
33,918
1,526
2,197
85,598
709
415
86,722
49,324
35,783
1,339
2,402
88,848
1,062
281
90,191
Despite an increase of 1,368 Advanced Diploma graduates and 1,865 Standard Diploma graduates, enrollment of new First-Time in College students remained flat, compared to last year.
FTIC, Direct from HS
Fall
Public 4
Public 2
Private 4
Total
2012
22,827
18,560
4,712
46,099
2013
22,947
19,768
4,640
47,355
2014
23,914
19,123
4,598
47,635
2015
24,768
18,790
4,536
48,094
2016
24,572
18,934
4,609
48,115

4. VA Public HS Graduates vs. Actual & Projected FTIC

5. Undergraduate Degree Estimates

6. In-State Undergraduate Degrees

7. TJ21 Measurement and Progress
Cumulative Additional Associate and Bachelor’s Degrees from Public Institutions by 2025

8. Total Undergraduate Degrees, Four-year Institutions

9. Associates and Certificates, VCCS

10. Conclusions Institutional enrollment projections remain conservative.
Degree estimates return to the more positive and aggressive approach we saw in 2013.
Staff is confident that the Commonwealth public institutions are on track to meet the goals of both TJ21 and the Virginia Plan.