1. The EU’s Association Agreements with the Eastern Partners
Dr. Rilka Dragneva-Lewers 24 February 2017

2. Provisional application
Initialled
Signed
Provisional application
In force
Georgia
29/11/2013
27/06/2014
1/09/2014
1/07/2016
Moldova
Ukraine
30/03/2012
21/03/2014
1/11/2014
1/01/2016 ?

3. The model Deep and comprehensive agreement
‘Gradual integration into the EU internal market’
Market access
NTBs
Services/establishment/public procurement
Trade facilitation

4. Market access EU-Ukraine
Industrial products
Agriculture products
EU import tariffs
About 95% immediate removal
Transition periods (3-7 years)
82.2% immediate
1.2% reduced to zero in 7 years
Tariff quotas on 36 groups (cereals, meat, sugar)
Ukraine import tariffs
About 50% immediate
Up to 96% over 7 years
10 years on cars
About 44% immediate
Transition periods up to 7 years
Tariff reduction + TRQs (3 groups)
Ukraine’s export duties
e.g. livestock, sunflower seeds, metals
Phased out in 10 years
Safeguard mechanism over 15 years
Standstill clause on new restrictions
Broader scope possible in 5-years following a decision of the Trade Committee!

5. The model Via legislative and regulatory approximation
Not new in the Global Europe agenda
Binding obligation
Market access conditionality
Except in areas of competition, trade facilitation, trade-related energy, etc.
Including extensive institutional reform

6. Template
Specificity
Extensive and specific lists in annexes (services/establishement)
‘Areas’ of directives (TBs)
Comprehensive Programme to identify directives (SPS)
basic, mandatory, non-mandatory provisions (public procurement)
Possibility to amend or update lists
ECJ interpretative authority
Deadlines

7. Institutions: asymmetry
Common values conditionality
Suspension clause: right to take appropriate measures if violation of the essential element
Market access conditionality
Monitoring (progress reports + on the spot missions + extra mechanisms per chapter)
Assessment by joint institutions + decision on progress
Consensus
Not subject to DCTFA DSM

8. Market access conditionality
TBs: Conclusion of Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products (ACAA) – no additional testing and conformity assessment procedures for access
After a check by a EU party
SPS: determination of equivalence
After regular monitoring and decision of SPS sub-committee
Public procurement: Symmetrical access upon evaluation
Quality of legislation adopted plus practical implementation

9. Institutions Summit meetings Association Council Association Committee
Sub-Committees
Parliamentary Association Committee
Civil Society Platform

10. Association Council Legally binding decisions by agreement
Broaden scope without new agreement
Market access conditionality
Updating and amending annexed acquis
Binding DR on non-DCFTA part
DCFTA – quasi-judicial model of trade adjudication
Disputes on legislative approximation
Obligation! of arbitration panel to request ruling
Binding rulings of ECJ!

11. The model Not a pre-accession agreement ‘close and privileged ties’
‘recognising European aspirations’
‘neither includes nor excludes’

12. The model The enlargement template without the membership perspective
‘Wholesale’ export of the acquis with no guarantee for integration into single market

13. EU’s perspective Low commercial interest
Outside 2006 Global Europe economic criteria
Miniscule trade  unlikely destination for exporters and investors
Primacy of political objectives: security, stability, prosperity

14. Trade importance 2015 (%) EU’s trade Ukraine Moldova Georgia Imports
0.7
0.1
0.0
Exports
0.8
Total
Partners’ trade
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Imports
40.9
50.7
32.6
Exports
34.1
58.9
29.3
Total
37.5
53.1
31.9

15. However … Extremely complex document (templates and procedures)
Standard for ‘legal approximation’
Sequencing insufficiently tailored to needs
Regulatory ‘straightjacket’
Given volumes of trade
In areas not linked to market access
No immediate economic gains

16. However … High adjustment costs
Particularly high in environment, transport, energy, competition, SPS
Deemed to be short-term
‘blueprint for economic reform’
Disruption of existing CIS ties – enhanced costs
State capacity, crisis
Political economy/Incentives of elites!!!
Abstract bottom-up support

17. TRQs Poor utilisation Health safety SPS standards
Insufficient domestic production
Low demand in EU (competitiveness)
No trade partners in EU

18. Association Agendas General priorities: Constitutional reform
election reform
judicial reform HR
public administration reform

19. ‘Flexibilities’ Additional autonomous trade measures
Complementary measures
Support Group for Ukraine
€12.8 bn support package (Macro-Financial assistance + technical assistance)
Visa Liberalisation Action Plan